Extended gamma processes have been seen as a flexible extension of standard gamma processes in the recent reliability literature, for the purpose of cumulative deterioration modeling. The probabilistic properties of the standard gamma process have been well explored since the 1970s, whereas those of its extension remain largely unexplored. In particular, stochastic comparisons between degradation levels modeled by standard gamma processes and ageing properties for the corresponding level-crossing times are now well understood. The aim of this paper is to explore similar properties for extended gamma processes and see which ones can be broadened to this new context. As a by-product, new stochastic comparisons for convolutions of gamma random variables are also obtained.

For independent exponentially distributed random variables $X_i$ , $i\in {\mathcal{N}}$ , with distinct rates ${\lambda}_i$ we consider sums $\sum_{i\in\mathcal{A}} X_i$ for $\mathcal{A}\subseteq {\mathcal{N}}$ which follow generalized exponential mixture distributions. We provide novel explicit results on the conditional distribution of the total sum $\sum_{i\in {\mathcal{N}}}X_i$ given that a subset sum $\sum_{j\in \mathcal{A}}X_j$ exceeds a certain threshold value $t>0$ , and vice versa. Moreover, we investigate the characteristic tail behavior of these conditional distributions for $t\to\infty$ . Finally, we illustrate how our probabilistic results can be applied in practice by providing examples from both reliability theory and risk management.

In this paper, we review different definitions that multi-state k-out-of-n systems have received along the literature and study them in a unified way using the algebra of monomial ideals. We thus obtain formulas and algorithms to compute their reliability and bounds for it. We provide formulas and computer experiments for simple and generalized multi-state k-out-of-n systems and for binary k-out-of-n systems with multi-state components.

The paper deals with prognosis estimation for industrial systems in a series configuration, modeled by superimposed renewal processes (SRP), when the cause of failures is not available. In the presence of missing information, an SRP is commonly approximated by a Poisson process or a virtual age model. The performance of the approximations was assessed in the ideal configuration where all parameters of the models are known. The current article adopts a practitioner's perspective by assuming that the parameters of the models are unknown and must be estimated. In addition to inference procedures, the assessment of the prognosis indicators, such as the remaining useful life, is discussed. Finally, we investigate a fleet of infrastructure components of the Norwegian railway network operated by Bane NOR.

Many cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin are susceptible to a so-called double-spend attack, where someone dishonestly attempts to reverse a recently confirmed transaction. The duration and likelihood of success of such an attack depends on the recency of the transaction and the computational power of the attacker, and these can be related to the distribution of time for counts from one Poisson process to exceed counts from another by some desired amount. We derive an exact expression for this distribution and show how it can be used to obtain efficient simulation estimators. We also give closed-form analytic approximations and illustrate their accuracy.

Reliability theory and survival analysis, the residual entropy is known as a measure suitable to describe the dynamic information content in stochastic systems conditional on survival. Aiming to analyze the variability of such information content, in this paper we introduce the variance of the residual lifetimes, “residual varentropy” in short. After a theoretical investigation of some properties of the residual varentropy, we illustrate certain applications related to the proportional hazards model and the first-passage times of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck jump-diffusion process.

This article considers the interval availability and instant availability of the k-system. A certain relationship between the two types of availability is established. Some lower and upper bounds to interval availability are derived. It also provides a couple of conditions under which the availability of two systems can be compared. Several examples are given to show the complexity of comparisons of availability.

Geometric accuracy is a critical performance factor for parallel robots, and regardless of error compensation, accuracy design or tolerance allocation is another way to ensure the pose accuracy of a robot at design stage. A general method of both geometric error modeling and accuracy design of lower-mobility parallel mechanisms is presented. First, a general approach for error modeling of lower-mobility parallel mechanism is proposed based on screw theory, and then the geometric errors affecting the compensatable and uncompensatable accuracy of the end-effector are separated using the properties of dual vector space. The pose error aroused by compensatable geometric errors can be compensated via kinematic calibration, while the uncompensatable geometric errors should be minimized during the manufacturing and assembly processes. Based on that, the tolerance allocation method is presented, giving each uncompensatable geometric error a proper tolerance by the use of reliability theory. Compared with the traditional tolerance allocation method, the advantages of the proposed method are as follows: the number of geometric errors to be allocated is greatly reduced; the results of serialized tolerance allocation can be obtained according to different reliability indices of pose accuracy of end-effector for designers to choose; on the premise of guaranteeing the same pose accuracy of end-effector, the allocated tolerances are loose and easy to realize. Finally, the proposed methods are successfully applied to an R(2-RPS&RP)&UPS lower-mobility parallel robot, and the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are verified.

Authors of this paper were educated and have spent many years in Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), in the Interfaculty Laboratory of Statistical Methods (ILSM). Prof. Yu. K. Belyaev was student of Kolmogorov, and for several years his deputy in the ILSM, created and led by the great A. N. Kolmogorov. Now Prof. Yuri Belyaev is Emeritus Professor at Umea University (Sweden). Asaf Hajiyev was a PhD student in Kolmogorov's ILSM. In this paper some unusual incidents about the legendary Kolmogorov, and people around him are presented. Some stories were taken from the books and the internet (see references) dedicated to the memory of Kolmogorov; some were told by his students, and some happened with authors of this paper.

Men are cruel but Man is kind.

– A. N. Kolmogorov

The Shannon entropy based on the probability density function is a key information measure with applications in different areas. Some alternative information measures have been proposed in the literature. Two relevant ones are the cumulative residual entropy (based on the survival function) and the cumulative past entropy (based on the distribution function). Recently, some extensions of these measures have been proposed. Here, we obtain some properties for the generalized cumulative past entropy. In particular, we prove that it determines the underlying distribution. We also study this measure in coherent systems and a closely related generalized past cumulative Kerridge inaccuracy measure.

The variable selection has been an important topic in regression and Bayesian survival analysis. In the era of rapid development of genomics and precision medicine, the topic is becoming more important and challenging. In addition to the challenges of handling censored data in survival analysis, we are facing increasing demand of handling big data with too many predictors where most of them may not be relevant to the prediction of the survival outcome. With the desire of improving upon the accuracy of prediction, we explore the Bregman divergence criterion in selecting predictive models. We develop sparse Bayesian formulation for parametric regression and semiparametric regression models and demonstrate how variable selection is done using the predictive approach. Model selections for a simulated data set, and two real-data sets (one for a kidney transplant study, and the other for a breast cancer microarray study at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center) are carried out to illustrate our methods.

We develop a new measure of reliability for the mean behavior of a process by calculating the probability the cumulative sample mean will stay within a given distance from the true mean over a period of time. This probability is derived using boundary-crossing properties of Brownian bridges. We derive finite sample results for independent and identically distributed normal data, limiting results for data meeting a functional central limit theorem, and draw parallels to standard normal confidence intervals. We deliver numerical results for i.i.d., dependent, and queueing processes.

In reliability theory, Cox's proportional hazard model is quite popular and widely used. In many situations, it is observed that failure rates under consideration are not proportional, rather they cross each other. In such situations, an alternative to Cox's proportional hazard model may be monotone hazard ratio model (provided the ratio exists). A notion of relative aging based on increasing hazard ratio was introduced by Kalashnikov and Rachev [19]. Sengupta and Deshpande [40] further explored this model and posited two other notions of relative aging based on increasing reversed failure rate ratio and increasing mean residual life ratio. In this study, for two life distributions, we derive sufficient conditions under which a life distribution ages faster than the other with respect to notions of relative aging described above. These sufficient conditions are easy to verify and can be used in practical applications where one is interested in studying relative aging of two life distributions. Applications of these results to relative aging of weighted distributions have also been illustrated. We also introduce a new relative aging ordering in terms of mean inactivity time order and study its fundamental properties.

Data from insurance portfolios and pension schemes lend themselves particularly well to the application of survival models. In addition to the traditional actuarial risk-rating factors of age, gender and policy size, we find that using geodemographic models based on postcode provides a major boost in explaining risk variation. Geodemographic models can be better than models based on pension size in explaining socio-economic variation, but a model using both is usually better still. Models acknowledging heterogeneity tend to fit better than models which do not. Finally, bootstrapping techniques can be used to test the financial applicability of a model, while weighting the model fit can be used to address concentration risk.

In this paper we derive some of the main ergodicity properties of a class of Markov renewal processes and the associated marked point processes. This class represents a generic model of applied probability and is of importance in earthquake modeling, reliability theory and queueing.

In this paper we study an approximation of system reliability using one-step conditioning. It is shown that, without greatly increasing the computational complexity, the conditional method may be used instead of the usual minimal cut and minimal path bounds to obtain more accurate approximations and bounds. We also study the conditions under which the approximations are bounds on the reliability. Some further extensions are also presented.

Age replacement policy is commonly used in order to reduce the number of in-service failures. In this paper we define a multivariate version of this policy and develop some of its desirable properties. We also obtain an optimal age replacement policy.

Let X1, X2,… be a sequence of independent random variables and let N be a positive integer-valued random variable which is independent of the Xi. In this paper we obtain some stochastic comparison results involving min {X1, X2,…, XN) and max{X1, X2,…, XN}.

The purpose of this paper is to study two notions of stochastic comparisons of non-negative random variables via ratios that are determined by their Laplace transforms. Some interpretations of the new orders are given, and various properties of them are derived. The relationships to other stochastic orders are also studied. Finally, some applications in reliability theory are described.

Using a matrix approach we discuss the first-passage time of a Markov process to exceed a given threshold or for the maximal increment of this process to pass a certain critical value. Conditions under which this first-passage time possesses various ageing properties are studied. Some results previously obtained by Li and Shaked (1995) are extended.