We analyze the effect of green patents on G7 stock market returns. First, we build a small IS-LM model to identify the relevant channels, augmented with open-economy channels and the Green Tobin’s q (Faria et al., 2022). The model highlights that the intertemporal impacts of greening on stock returns are ambiguous. We then turn to an estimated global vector autoregressive model to more rigorously analyze the effect of monetary and green patenting shocks across the G7. Both shocks influence green patents through real and financial markets. As regards green patent shocks, results suggest that a tension exists over time between promoting pollution reduction and energy efficiency and the profitability of (green and brown) companies in the aggregate. We perform a variety of robustness exercises around our main results. Our results provide something of a challenge to the literature and call for more research effort to understand the various channels that might explain this dynamic—and in turn whether any particular policy recommendations follow.

This paper develops a monetary R&D-driven endogenous growth model featuring endogenous innovation scales and the price-marginal cost markup. To endogenize the step size of quality improvement, we propose a tradeoff mechanism between the risk of innovation failure and the benefit of innovation success in R&D firms. Several findings emerge from the analysis. First, a rise in the nominal interest rate decreases economic growth; however, its relationship with social welfare is ambiguous. Second, either strengthening patent protection or raising the professional knowledge of R&D firms leads to an ambiguous effect on economic growth. Third, the Friedman rule of a zero nominal interest rate fails to be optimal in view of the social welfare maximum. Finally, our numerical analysis indicates that the extent of patent protection and the level of an R&D firm’s professional knowledge play a crucial role in determining the optimal interest rate.

This study analyzed the impact of environmental regulation, specifically the “2+26” regional strategy for air quality improvement, on corporate research and development (R&D) investment in China. We developed a theoretical model based on the argument that R&D investment rises with regulation intensity. Using 2010–2019 data from China's listed companies located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas, we treated the $2+26$ policy as a quasi-natural experiment and adopted a difference-in-differences approach to explore its effect on firm R&D input. A positive association was observed between firm R&D intensity and the $2+26$ strategy's implementation in major polluting industries. Our results provide in-depth insights into the $2+26$ strategy's economic consequences, which are potentially of interest to both scholars and policymakers.

Past research has only studied genetic panel scores and feedlot performance. This research combines impacts of genetic panel scores on a cow-calf operation with previously estimated feedlot impacts to evaluate the potential for misaligned economic incentives in the beef industry. Calves that were higher genetic scores for two carcass traits, marbling and tenderness, had lower weaning weights and lower net returns. Correlations between genetic traits and cow size were small and mostly insignificant. The sum of the effects on feedlot and cow-calf sectors of a one-unit higher panel score totaled $-2.83 per cow year for marbling and $-4.93 per cow year for tenderness.

Did trade patterns in services change into activities that were more digital-intense after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, and was this shift structural? This paper uses a Difference-in-Difference (DID) approach to investigate whether services trade became more digital-based after the GFC in 2008. It finds support that the GFC formed a break from the previous period that caused services trade to become more digital – although there are signs that this had already started before 2008. Countries with high internet usage and a comparative advantage in digital-intense services, such as R&D, information exchange, computer services, and charges for Intellectual Property Rights (IPR), on average saw post-GFC a 6% increase in global exports compared to other non-digital sectors. More striking is that upper-middle income countries and countries with medium levels of skills also witnessed a sharp increase. These significant outcomes may indicate the direction into which patterns of services trade are likely to turn after the current economic crisis resulting from COVID-19.

In practice, firms face a number of scarce innovation projects. They choose one towards which to direct their effort, but do not coordinate these choices. This gives rise to coordination frictions. This paper develops an expanding-variety endogenous growth model to study the implications of these frictions for growth and welfare. We find that the coordination failure generates a number of foregone innovations and reduces the economy-wide research intensity. Both effects decrease the growth rate. This creates a general equilibrium effect that endogenously amplifies the fraction of wasteful simultaneous innovation. Furthermore, formalizing the coordination frictions uncovers a novel link between the “stepping on toes” and “standing on shoulders” externalities—their magnitudes are endogenously determined through the ratio of firms to innovation projects. We find that the “stepping on toes” externality is larger for all parameter values.

We employ a novel approach for analyzing the effects of relative consumption and relative wealth preferences on economic growth. In the pertinent literature, these effects are usually assessed by examining the dependence of the growth rate on the two parameters of the utility function that seem to measure the strength of the relative consumption and the relative wealth motives. Applying our fundamental factor approach, we identify specifications in which the traditional approach yields incorrect qualitative conclusions. The problematic specifications have the common unpleasant property that the parameter that seems to determine the strength of the relative consumption motive actually also affects the elasticity of intertemporal substitution of absolute consumption (and the strength of the relative wealth motive). Since the standard approach is unaware of the additional effect(s), it attributes the total change in the growth rate incorrectly to the change in the strength of the relative consumption motive.

This is a review of Joel Mokyr's fascinating book entitled A Culture of Growth. The work is summarized, noting its focus on Darwin-style evolutionary explanations of cultural change. But Mokyr's emphasis on cultural entrepreneurs and positive feedbacks in the procreation of ideas is insufficient to explain the origins of modern economic growth. Too much explanatory weight is placed on too few extraordinary people. It is argued that Mokyr's analysis should be extended, to bring the evolution of institutions, as well as the evolution of culture, into the picture at an additional level. The role of inter-state rivalry and exogenous shocks has also to be underlined. This kind of analysis can be developed within the framework of generalized Darwinism, which Mokyr himself adopts. This is a major and highly stimulating book.

A recent wave of scholarship attests that the liberal world order is under threat. Although there is disagreement about the underlying reasons for this diagnosis, there are few attempts to further our understanding of how the liberal order can be reinvigorated. This paper probes the potential of blockchain technology to promote international cooperation. Blockchain technology is a data structure that enables global governance stakeholders to establish decentralized governance systems which provide high-powered incentives for enhanced cooperation. By outlining the contours of a blockchain-based global governance system for climate policy, the paper illustrates that blockchain technology holds theoretical promise to foster cooperation in three ways: leveraging new sources of information through blockchain-based prediction markets; allaying coordinating problems through reducing the cost of transactions for side payments; and allowing states and other global governance actors to make more credible commitments given guaranteed execution of blockchain-enabled smart contracts. By empowering local knowledge holders and non-state actors that traditionally lacked the means to coordinate efforts to influence global politics, blockchain technology also promises to advance an international order based on liberal values. In actuality, however, emerging blockchain-based global governance systems will fall short of the libertarian ideal of ‘fully-automated liberalism’ as their design and operation will remain under the shadow of power.

UK labour productivity is significantly lower than that of many other similarly advanced economies and has been so for decades, with negative implications for UK living standards. To make matters worse, during the last ten years labour productivity growth has stalled in most industrialised countries, and particularly in the UK. This has led to a renewed policy focus on productivity growth, as evidenced by successive government productivity plans and efforts to re-invigorate industrial strategy. This paper reviews the evidence on UK productivity performance, identifying what we know about the causes of its weakness, what we do not know and what this means for policy. We review the evidence through the lens of developments in economic measurement, drawing in particular on the work of National Institute colleagues past and present, and with a view to the key measurement challenges ahead that, unlocked, will help us understand better what is holding back UK productivity.

In Mexico during the protectionist economic regime a process of industrial modernization was carried out which led to the incorporation of different types of technologies into the structures and processes of production or consumption. The patent policy was implemented with the interest of encouraging the attraction of novel technologies, but their contribution was quite limited due to the nature, design and operation, with which it was conformed. Therefore, the patent policy did not drive patenting activity in a high and sustained manner. It was ineffective to contribute to the development of technologies generated by local actors, and marginally propitiated the productive exploitation of patents.

Use of seasonal climate forecasts is a rapidly evolving area. Effective research and application of climate forecasts require close cooperation between scientists in diverse disciplines and decision makers. Successful collaboration requires all players to at least partially understand each other's perspectives. Issues associated with seasonal forecasts, through a selected review of both physical and social sciences literature, is presented. Our hope is that the review will improve research in this area by stimulating further collaborations.

This paper reviews the analysis of technological change by cliometricians. It focuses on lessons about total factor productivity (TFP) from growth accounting and on aspects of social capability that are conducive to the effective assimilation of new technology. Key messages are that when TFP growth is very rapid this typically involves reductions in inefficiency not just technological advance and that even really important new technologies have small initial effects on aggregate productivity. Incentive structures matter greatly for the adoption of new technology, but social capability is not independent of the technological epoch as the information and communications technology (ICT) era has emphasized to Europeans.

We use the United Kingdom Labour Force Survey to estimate the returns to schooling and job-specific experience in sixteen different industry sectors over the period 1994-2001. Next, assuming skill levels are fixed, we assess the marginal effect on these returns of the capital intensity of production and the ICT intensity of capital. Our results indicate that in the UK, over the period 1994-2001, the rising ICT intensity of capital was associated with a rise in the return to schooling, and a reduction in the return to job-specific experience.

In this article I show that a permanent possitive shock on the rate of investment-specific technical progress might cause, at least in the short run, a fall of the growth rate of both output per capita and total factor productivity, as measured by the Solow residual. Several simulations are performed which show that the extent of the Productivity Slowdown drastically depends on the elasticity of the marginal cost of producing a unit of capital good with respect to the rate of investment-specific technical progress.

New U.S. evidence from NIPA contradicts some of the well-known Kaldor stylized facts, and call for a reformulation of the modern theory of economic growth. Among these new facts, two must be stressed: A permanent decline in the relative price of durable goods, and a permanent increase in the real equipment to real GDP ratio. To be consistent with these new facts, growth models must include at least two sectors and address the problem of defining aggregate output. In this paper, the economic theory of index numbers is used to define the growth rate of real output in a growth model with embodied technical change. The main findings are: (i) NIPA’s methodology measures growth in accordance with the economic theory on index numbers, and (ii) when the growth rate is measured as in NIPA, the contribution of embodied technical change to per capital GDP growth in the U.S. is 69%, which reinforce the claim that embodied technical change is important for growth.

L’objectif de cet article est d’expliquer le chômage de masse, tel qu’il existe depuis plus d’une décennie dans les pays européens. Il est affirmé que sa cause réside dans une offre réelle de monnaie insuffisante, conjuguée avec une politique budgétaire trop restrictive. En découlent des taux d’intérêt à long terme trop élevés, une demande agrégée insuffisante, une pénurie d’offres d’emploi et, finalement, le chômage de masse. Il est affirmé que cette politique désastreuse d’offre monétaire réelle inadéquate est imposée par l’Allemagne au reste du SME, d’abord par le jeu d’une politique de taux d’intérêts élevés et ensuite par l’adhésion aux parités fixes à l’intérieur du SME. Cette fixité qui, initialement était une règle s’imposant aux pays membres, aujourd’hui n’existe plus que du fait de leur bon vouloir. Ce choix, pense-t-on, est nécessaire à la mise en oeuvre du Traité de Maastricht, quel que soit son coût en termes de chômage et de gaspillage de ressources. Dans l’article, il est, au contraire, affirmé qu’il faudrait envisager l’hypothèse inverse, à savoir qu’un tel choix risque de ruiner l’idée d’unité monétaire, de par la preuve tangible qu’il donne de son coût désastreux.