Which statement conveys greater risk: “100 people die from cancer every day” or “36,500 people die from cancer every year”? In statistics where both frequencies and temporal information are used to convey risk, two theories predict opposite answers to this question.

Construal level theory predicts that “100 people die from cancer every day” will be judged as more risky, while the ratio bias predicts that the equivalent “36,500 people die from cancer every year” will result in higher risk judgments. An experiment investigated which format produces higher risk ratings, and whether ratings are influenced by increasing the salience of the numerical or temporal part of the statistic. Forty-eight participants were randomly assigned to a numerical, temporal or control salience condition, and rated risk framed as number of deaths per day or per year. The year format was found to result in higher perceived risk, indicating that the ratio bias effect is dominant, but there was no effect of salience.

Typhoid fever is an illness caused by Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi. In developing regions, it affects an estimated 20 million people annually, causing 200 000 deaths. Although uncommon, cases occur in the USA each year, predominantly due to international travel. During February 2015, the Oklahoma State Department of Health (OSDH) detected an outbreak of typhoid fever among residents of northwestern Oklahoma. OSDH conducted case-patient interviews to identify the source and symptomatic contacts. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) was performed to characterise the genetic relatedness of isolates among the four outbreak-associated pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns. We identified 38 cases, 25 confirmed and 13 probable, in two states. WGS revealed a 0–10 single-nucleotide polymorphism variation between isolates. Although we were unable to determine the source, almost all case-patients were members of the Marshallese community that attended a common event in Oklahoma, or were contacts to a confirmed case. This is the largest outbreak of typhoid fever in the USA since 1989, and first to apply WGS to complement interpretation of PFGE results during a typhoid fever outbreak investigation. This investigation illustrates the potential risk of outbreaks among communities comprised of international populations from regions where typhoid fever remains endemic.

Shigellosis causes significant morbidity and mortality in developing and developed countries, mostly among infants and young children. The World Health Organization estimates that more than one million people die from Shigellosis every year. In order to evaluate trends in Shigellosis in Israel in the years 2002–2015, we analysed national notifiable disease reporting data. Shigella sonnei was the most commonly identified Shigella species in Israel. Hospitalisation rates due to Shigella flexenri were higher in comparison with other Shigella species. Shigella morbidity was higher among infants and young children (age 0–5 years old). Incidence of Shigella species differed among various ethnic groups, with significantly high rates of S. flexenri among Muslims, in comparison with Jews, Druze and Christians. In order to improve the current Shigellosis clinical diagnosis, we developed machine learning algorithms to predict the Shigella species and whether a patient will be hospitalised or not, based on available demographic and clinical data. The algorithms’ performances yielded an accuracy of 93.2% (Shigella species) and 94.9% (hospitalisation) and may consequently improve the diagnosis and treatment of the disease.

To understand increasing rates of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Tennessee, we conducted testing, risk factor analysis and a nested case–control study among persons who use drugs. During June–October 2016, HCV testing with risk factor assessment was conducted in sexually transmitted disease clinics, family planning clinics and an addiction treatment facility in eastern Tennessee; data were analysed by using multivariable logistic regression. A nested case–control study was conducted to assess drug-using risks and behaviours among persons who reported intranasal or injection drug use (IDU). Of 4753 persons tested, 397 (8.4%) were HCV-antibody positive. HCV infection was significantly associated with a history of both intranasal and IDU (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 35.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 24.1–51.9), IDU alone (aOR 52.7, CI 25.3–109.9), intranasal drug use alone (aOR 2.6, CI 1.8–3.9) and incarceration (aOR 2.7, CI 2.0–3.8). By 4 October 2016, 574 persons with a reported history of drug use; 63 (11%) were interviewed further. Of 31 persons who used both intranasal and injection drugs, 26 (84%) reported previous intranasal drug use, occurring 1–18 years (median 5.5 years) before their first IDU. Our findings provide evidence that reported IDU, intranasal drug use and incarceration are independent indicators of risk for past or present HCV infection in the study population.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of life in patients with vascular chronic Q fever at time of diagnosis and during follow-up. Based upon the SF-36 questionnaire, the mean physical and mental health of each patient were assessed at 3-month intervals for up to 18 months. A total of 26 patients were included in the study. At time of diagnosis, the mean physical health and mental health score was 50·6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 46·7–54·4] and 44·6 (95% CI 41·6–47·5), respectively. During treatment, the mean physical health score declined significantly by 1·7 points each 3 months (P < 0·001) to 40·8 (95% CI 34·4–45·1). The mean mental health score significantly and steadily increased towards 51·2 (95% CI 46·9–54·3) during follow-up (P = 0·026). A total of 23% of patients were cured after 18 months of follow-up. In conclusion, quality of life at time of diagnosis for patients with vascular chronic Q fever is lower compared to a similar group of patients, matched for age and gender, with an aortic abdominal aneurysmal disease, and physical health decreases further after starting treatment. Considering the low percentage of cure, the current treatment of vascular chronic Q fever patients may require a separate strategy from that of endocarditis in order to increase survival.

The US Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) requires nursing homes and long-term-care facilities to document residents' vaccination status on the Resident Assessment Instrument (RAI). Vaccinating residents can prevent costly hospital admissions and deaths. CMS and public health officials use RAI data to measure vaccination rates in long-term-care residents and assess the quality of care in nursing homes. We assessed the accuracy of RAI data against medical records in 39 nursing homes in Florida, Georgia, and Wisconsin. We randomly sampled residents in each home during the 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 influenza seasons. We collected data on receipt of influenza vaccination from charts and RAI data. Our final sample included 840 medical charts with matched RAI records. The agreement rate was 0·86. Using the chart as a gold standard, the sensitivity of the RAI with respect to influenza vaccination was 85% and the specificity was 77%. Agreement rates varied within facilities from 55% to 100%. Monitoring vaccination rates in the population is important for gauging the impact of programmes and policies to promote adherence to vaccination recommendations. Use of data from RAIs is a reasonable approach for gauging influenza vaccination rates in nursing-home residents.

Notification of infectious disease is essential for prompt public health action and epidemiological analysis. The aim of this study was to compare national hospitalization data to national notification data in order to assess if there was significant under-reporting of hospitalized notifiable infectious diseases in recent years in Ireland. All in-patient discharges from public hospitals in the Republic of Ireland from 2006 to 2011 with a principal diagnosis of a notifiable disease were compared with national notification data. It was found that only a potential 1·8% of extra notifications could have arisen due to these hospitalization events and would represent a tenfold reduction on a previous estimate of under-reporting in the Irish context. Viral meningitis, viral encephalitis, bacterial meningitis not otherwise specified and malaria were the most common diseases for which there were more hospitalizations than notifications reported. The results of this study support the conclusion that the reduction in under-reporting can mainly be accounted for by the introduction of laboratories as notifiers in conjunction with the roll out of the Computerized Infectious Disease Reporting system (CIDR). However, for the diseases highlighted, the notification data underestimates the true burden of disease and this has implications for understanding the epidemiology of these diseases.

Background: Reports that death notices in the Times-Picayune, the New Orleans daily newspaper, increased dramatically in 2006 prompted local health officials to determine whether death notice surveillance could serve as a valid alternative means to confirm suspicions of excess mortality requiring immediate preventive actions and intervention.

Methods: Monthly totals of death notices from the Times-Picayune were used to obtain frequency and proportion of deaths from January to June 2006. To validate this methodology the authors compared 2002 to 2003 monthly death frequency and proportions between death notices and top 10 causes of death from state vital statistics.

Results: A significant (47%) increase in proportion of deaths was seen compared with the known baseline population. From January to June 2006, there were on average 1317 deaths notices per month for a mortality rate of 91.37 deaths per 100,000 population, compared with a 2002–2004 average of 924 deaths per month for a mortality rate of 62.17 deaths per 100,000 population. Differences between 2002 and 2003 death notices and top 10 causes of death were insignificant and had high correlation.

Discussion: Death notices from local daily newspaper sources may serve as an alternative source of mortality information. Problems with delayed reporting, timely analysis, and interoperability between state and local health departments may be solved by the implementation of electronic death registration. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2007;1:15–20)