Few of the previous studies of clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR) have explored whether outcomes other than conversion, such as poor functioning or treatment responses, are better predicted when using risk calculators. To answer this question, we compared the predictive accuracy between the outcome of conversion and poor functioning by using the NAPLS-2 risk calculator.

Three hundred CHR individuals were identified using the Chinese version of the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms. Of these, 228 (76.0%) completed neurocognitive assessments at baseline and 199 (66.3%) had at least a 1-year follow-up assessment. The latter group was used in the NAPLS-2 risk calculator.

We divided the sample into two broad categories based on different outcome definitions, conversion (n = 46) v. non-conversion (n = 153) or recovery (n = 138) v. poor functioning (n = 61). Interestingly, the NAPLS-2 risk calculator showed moderate discrimination of subsequent conversion to psychosis in this sample with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.631 (p = 0.007). However, for discriminating poor functioning, the AUC of the model increased to 0.754 (p < 0.001).

Our results suggest that the current risk calculator was a better fit for predicting a poor functional outcome and treatment response than it was in the prediction of conversion to psychosis.

Preclinical and human studies suggest an association between chronic inflammation and the development of depressive behaviors. This is proposed to occur through downstream effects of inflammatory cytokines on neuroplasticity, neurogenesis and neurotransmitter function, although the neural correlates remain poorly understood in humans.

In Study 1, structural magnetic resonance imaging and serum inflammatory cytokine data were analyzed from 53 psychiatrically healthy female participants. Correlational analyses were conducted between interleukin-6 (IL-6) and volume in a priori regions implicated in the pathophysiology of major depressive disorder (MDD). In Study 2, medical data [including serum inflammatory acute phase reactants (C-reactive protein)] were analyzed for 12 589 participants. Participants were classified as having (n = 2541) v. not having (n = 10 048) probable lifetime MDD using phenotypes derived using machine-learning approaches. Non-parametric analyses compared inflammation between groups, whereas regression analyses probed whether inflammation predicted probable MDD classification while accounting for other variables.

In Study 1, significant negative correlations emerged between IL-6 and hippocampal, caudate, putamen and amygdalar volume. In Study 2, the MDD group showed a higher probability of elevated inflammation than the non-MDD group. Moreover, elevated inflammation was a significant predictor of probable MDD classification.

Findings indicate that inflammation is cross-sectionally related to reduced volume in brain regions implicated in MDD phenotypes among a sample of psychiatrically healthy women, and is associated with the presence of probable MDD in a large clinical dataset. Future investigations may identify specific inflammatory markers predicting first MDD onset.

Cross-sectional evidence suggests females in late adolescence exhibit higher rates of post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) than males and younger age groups. However, longitudinal evidence is limited, and underlying factors are not well understood. We investigated the emergence of sex differences in PTSS from childhood to adolescence in a large, longitudinal UK cohort, and tested whether these could be explained by overlap between PTSS and depressive symptoms, or onset of puberty.

Trauma exposure and PTSS were assessed at ages 8, 10, 13 (parent-report) and 15 (self-report) years in a sub-sample of 9966 children and adolescents from the ALSPAC cohort-study. Analyses of PTSS focused on those who reported potential trauma-exposure at each time-point (ranged from n = 654 at 15 years to n = 1231 at 10 years). Age at peak-height velocity (APHV) was used as an indicator of pubertal timing.

There was no evidence of sex differences in PTSS at ages 8 and 10, but females were more likely to show PTSS at ages 13 (OR 1.54, p = 0.002) and 15 (OR 2.04, p = .001), even once symptoms related to depression were excluded. We found little evidence that the emergence of sex differences was related to pubertal timing (as indexed by APHV).

Results indicate that females show higher levels of PTSS in adolescence but not during childhood. The emergence of this sex difference does not seem to be explained by overlap with depressive symptoms, while the influence of pubertal status requires further investigation.

Adverse health and social outcomes are known to occur more frequently following parental death during childhood, but evidence is lacking for comparing long-term risks of internalised v. externalised harm.

This national register-based cohort study consisted of Danish persons born 1970–2000. The Civil Registration System and National Causes of Death Register were linked to ascertain parental deaths by cause before cohort members' 15th birthdays. From age 15 years, hospital-treated self-harm episodes were ascertained through linkage to the National Patient Register and the Psychiatric Central Research Register, and violent crimes were identified via linkage to the National Crime Register. Hazard ratio and cumulative incidence values were estimated.

Self-harm and violent criminality risks were elevated following parental death during childhood. Covariate adjustment for gender, birth year and first-degree relatives' mental illnesses attenuated these associations, although significantly heightened risks persisted. The estimated hazard ratios did not differ greatly according to which parent died, but losing both parents conferred particularly large risk increases. Risks for both adverse outcomes were higher in relation to unnatural v. natural parental death; violent criminality risk was especially raised among individuals exposed to parental death by unnatural causes other than suicide. The association was strongest when pre-school age children experienced parental death.

Effective early intervention is needed to help youngsters who have experienced the death of one or both parents to develop immediate and sustained coping strategies. Enhanced cooperation between health and social services and criminal justice agencies may mitigate risks for these two destructive behaviours.

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with poorer cognitive functioning. We used a developmental, genetically-sensitive approach to examine intelligence quotient (IQ) from early childhood to young adulthood among those with different ADHD courses to investigate whether changes in ADHD were reflected in differences in IQ. We also examined executive functioning in childhood and young adulthood among different ADHD courses.

Study participants were part of the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a population-based birth cohort of 2232 twins. We assessed ADHD in childhood (ages 5, 7, 10 and 12) and young adulthood (age 18). We examined ADHD course as reflected by remission, persistence and late-onset. IQ was evaluated at ages 5, 12 and 18, and executive functioning at ages 5 and 18.

ADHD groups showed deficits in IQ across development compared to controls; those with persistent ADHD showed the greatest deficit, followed by remitted and late-onset. ADHD groups did not differ from controls in developmental trajectory of IQ, suggesting changes in ADHD were not reflected in IQ. All ADHD groups performed more poorly on executive functioning tasks at ages 5 and 18; persisters and remitters differed only on an inhibitory control task at age 18.

Differences in ADHD course – persistence, remission and late-onset – were not directly reflected in changes in IQ. Instead, having ADHD at any point across development was associated with lower average IQ and poorer executive functioning. Our finding that individuals with persistent ADHD have poorer response inhibition than those who remitted requires replication.