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Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2012

Douglas A. Hibbs
Douglas A. Hibbs*
Affiliation:
Miami Beach, Florida
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Extract

According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars. No other outside variable systematically affects postwar aggregate votes for president.

Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 45 , Issue 4 , October 2012 , pp. 635 - 639
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012 

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