Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T17:05:04.640Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2012

Bruno Jerôme  and
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Bruno Jerôme
Affiliation:
University of Paris 2
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Affiliation:
University of Paris Sud 11
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the defeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, in the former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents in favor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 US presidential election will see Barack Obama running for a second term during difficult economic times. After hitting a high of 10% in October 2009, the nation's unemployment rate decreased to 8.2% in May 2012. Nonetheless, this is still 0.7 percentage point higher than what Ronald Reagan faced in 1984 or what confronted George H.W. Bush in 1992 as they ran for their second terms. Looking at measures of presidential popularity for the month of May since 1980, Barack Obama's approval rating is at 46% in the Gallup polls, which is the third-worst rating after George W. Bush (30% in 2008) and George H.W. Bush (39.4% in 1992). Given Barack Obama's approval rating and the current national unemployment level, must we conclude that Barack Obama is irremediably on the ropes against Mitt Romney in 2012?

Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 45 , Issue 4 , October 2012 , pp. 663 - 668
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baltagli, Badi H. 1995. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 1992. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States.” American Journal of Political Science 36: 386–407.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 1978. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” Review of Economics and Statistics 64: 159–72.Google Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M. 1991. “Presidential Elections in Space and Time.” American Journal of Political Science 35: 91–109.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2001. “La France réélirait Chirac.” In Ils ont trouvé la formule qui donne le résultat des élections, L'Expansion 656, 8–21 November: 74–75.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2003. “Reordering the French Election Calendar: Forecasting the Consequences for 2002.” European Journal of Political Research 423: 425–40.Google Scholar
Jones, Randall J. 2008. “The State of Presidential Election Forecasting: The 2004 Experience.” The International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2): 310–21.Google Scholar
Key, Valdimer. O. 1966. The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 145–64.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Paldam, Martin. 2000. “Economic Voting: An Introduction.” Electoral Studies 19 (2-3): 113–22.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1982. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote.” Opinion Quarterly 46: 534–37.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1984. “Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naive Models.” Political Behavior 61: 9–21.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Tien, Charles, and Nadeau, Richard. 2010. “Obama's Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost?” PS: Political Science & Politics 43 (1): 69–76.Google Scholar
Merrill, Samuel, Grofman, Bernard, and Brunell, Thomas L.. 2008. “Cycles in American National Electoral Politics, 1854–2006: Statistical Evidence and an Explanatory Model.” American Journal of Political Science 102(1): 1–17.Google Scholar
Nannestad, Peter, and Paldam, Martin. 1994. “The VP-function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 years.” Public Choice 79 (3-4): 213–45.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J. 1983. Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Lee. 1979. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 43: 532–34.Google Scholar
Tiebout, Charles M. 1956. “A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy 64: 416–24.Google Scholar