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Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2012

Charles Tien ,
Richard Nadeau  and
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Charles Tien
Affiliation:
Hunter Collegeand the Graduate Center, CUNY
Richard Nadeau
Affiliation:
University of Montreal
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
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Abstract

Will President Obama lose votes in 2012 because of racial prejudice? For 2008, weestimated, via a carefully controlled, national survey-based study, that on balancehe lost about five percentage points in popular vote share due to intolerance forhis race on the part of some voters. What about 2012? There are at least threepossibilities: (1) the presidency has become postracial, and the vote will registerno racial cost; (2) intolerance has increased, and the vote will register anincreased racial cost; and (3) intolerance has decreased, and the vote will registera decreased racial cost. Our evidence, drawn from an analysis comparable to thatcarried out for 2008, suggests Obama will pay a racial cost of three percentagepoints in popular vote share. In other words, his candidacy will experience adecrease in racial cost, if a small one. In 2008, this racial cost denied Obama alandslide victory. In the context of a closer election in 2012, this persistentracial cost, even smaller in size, could perhaps cost him his reelection.

Type
Spotlight
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 45 , Issue 4 , October 2012 , pp. 591 - 595
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012 

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