The government set up the Independent Commission on Banking (ICB) to consider structural and non-structural measures to promote stability and competition in the UK banking system. They have produced a comprehensive assessment covering some of the key issues facing the banking industry. The ICB's three core recommendations are: a ring-fence to separate retail and wholesale banking activities; banks are required to have more lossabsorbing capital; and greater competition in retail banking markets. In some respects, the recommendations are a step back towards an earlier time of compartmentalised banking. The litmus test is whether they deliver a similar period of financial stability and economic growth.

Global economic prospects have deteriorated markedly in recent months. Risks around our central forecast have shifted distinctly to the downside. Much of this is due to the heightened uncertainty surrounding Europe's sovereign debt crisis. There is widespread agreement among policymakers - ranging from the IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank to individual heads of state both within and outside the Euro Area - that resolution to the crisis requires urgent, comprehensive and coordinated action. Yet 17 months after the first bail-out programme was introduced in Greece, policymakers have failed to deliver a strategy that promises a credible prospect of growth and an end to rising debt profiles. Solvency concerns in three relatively small peripheral countries (Greece, Ireland and Portugal), combined with weakening growth across the continent, raise the dangerous spectre of illiquidity beginning to affect solvency in the larger core economies with high debt ratios - notably Italy. Left unchecked, the consequences would be severe for the world economy.

The economic news flow since the publication of our July Review has been predominately negative, focusing on the deteriorating Euro Area sovereign debt crisis. This has added to further disappointing data on UK domestic activity. Quarterly economic growth has averaged just 0.3 per cent in the first three quarters of 2011 (see figure 1). Anaemic GDP growth is due to both the public and private sectors simultaneously consolidating their balance sheets. Looking ahead, the crisis in the Euro Area will play a central role. We expect the UK economy to expand by 0.9 per cent this year and 0.8 per cent in 2012, before increasing by 2.6 per cent in 2013. This will be the most protracted recovery since the end of the First World War (see figure 2).

The themed section of this Review includes four papers that look, through different lenses, at the evolution of the UK income distribution — the components and dynamics of income over time. Each contains significant new contributions to our understanding; taken together with other contributions to this literature, they paint a much richer picture of this issue, and provide some pointers about what we should be looking for in the future.

The previous Labour government pledged to abolish child poverty and introduced a range of welfare reforms that emphasised the role of work as the primary route out of poverty. This culminated in the Child Poverty Act (2010) which commits all future governments to the abolition of child poverty. This paper examines New Labour's record on child poverty and examines the factors responsible for its change. While the welfare reforms of the late 1990s did increase work among families with children, this didn't translate into large falls in child poverty. Those entering work still relied on substantial increases in government benefits to lift them over the poverty line. The current coalition government has reaffirmed its commitment to the Child Poverty Act and is also emphasising the role of work. The lessons of the past decade cast severe doubt on whether the current coalition government strategy of promoting work will be any more successful in reducing child poverty. With planned benefit cuts in the pipeline we could well experience some substantial increases in child poverty over the coming years.

This paper examines differences in inequality between regions and between sectors of the economy. The growth in overall inequality since the mid-1990s is found to have been driven primarily by that in London (with a smaller difference for the South East and East Anglia) and by that in the financial sector (with a smaller difference for the business activities sector). While these differences for London and the financial sector overlap to some extent, they also have significant separate influences once each other is controlled for. The changes in inequality in the rest of Britain and in the other sectors of the economy are numerically small and statistically insignificant.

This paper examines trends in the instability of personal incomes in Britain in terms of changes in the transitory variance and in volatility, measures that have received much recent attention in research about the USA. It is shown that, although US measures have trended upwards over the past two decades, there is no such trend in Britain between the early-1990s and the mid-2000s. Explanations for these differences are discussed.

The view that there is an ‘under-savings’ problem in the UK domestic sector has had an important bearing on the contemporary agenda for policy reform. This paper considers the temporal variation of household expenditure and disposable income described by micro-data observed during the past four decades (1971 to 2009). I find a very close correspondence between the growth of expenditure and disposable income over the sample period, with the implication that households have not offset the well-documented decline in occupational pension provisions during the period through increased private saving out of disposable income.