The UK and world economies have reached a position where it is not clear whether they are going to continue expanding at a reasonable trend like rate or whether the slowdown from above trend growth in 1995 is about to intensify into a recession in 1996.

Net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the UK’s current target, requires bridging a dramatic energy transition and eliminating all other net sources of emissions while ensuring a just transition. Key components like renewable electricity generation and electric vehicles are well developed, but many issues remain. Public support for a green economy may wane if the economic costs are too high or seen as unfair. Therefore, although renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels, it is essential to maintain employment, real per capita growth and reduced inequality. Decarbonizing the UK economy requires an integrated sequential approach and need not be delayed while dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis and resulting inflation.

Experimental reforms in the teaching of mathematics incorporating Continental teaching methods were begun in January 1995 in fifteen classes in six primary schools in the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham. The classes were visited in June 1996 by the Secretary of State for Education Mrs Gillian Shephard, by HM Chief Inspector of Schools Mr Chris Woodhead, and by the Opposition spokesman for education Mr David Blunkett; the media, including the BBC television programme, Panorama, provided accounts for the wider public. The reforms resulted from a wider research programme—comparing Continental and British productivity, education and vocational training—that has been under way at the National Institute for over a decade, by a research team led by SJ Prais; in recent years the research has benefited from close co-operation with the inspectorate and schools in Barking and Dagenham; this phase was funded by the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, to the Trustees of which—and especially Mr David Sainsbury for his personal encouragement—the Institute is much indebted. The commentary below outlines the background to these educational reforms, explains what has been done so far, and sets out for discussion some proposed next steps.

Infrastructure investment can substantially increase a nation's capital stock and thereby boost productive, or supply-side, potential. It can also be useful as a tool in macroeconomic stabilisation, while public spending on quality infrastructure projects has been shown to have significantly greater multiplier effects than tax cuts – so the case for an increasing spend is not undermined by a country's overall debt level.

These arguments are especially apposite for post-Brexit UK. Britain's investment performance in general has been especially poor since the 2016 EU referendum. Fixed capital formation as a proportion of GDP is low by international standards, while the government's share of fixed capital formation, at 2.5 per cent, is also below average. It would make sense to target an increase in public and private infrastructure spend to 3.5 per cent of GDP which is the OECD's recommended level.

While major infrastructure projects continue to generate controversy on grounds of cost overruns and other issues, UK policy-makers have recently taken a more constructive approach to infrastructure development, notably with the creation of an independent National Infrastructure Commission.

But the UK's infrastructure remains unsatisfactory, with significant parts of its energy, water, transport and communications networks in need of renewal or replacement, and infrastructure project delivery remains poor. In summary, much of Britain continues to operate well into the 21st century largely with 20th century, sometimes 19th century, infrastructure assets that are creating bottlenecks, crimping productivity, putting off potential foreign investors, undermining the economy's competitiveness, increasing inequality, and leaving the economy ill-equipped to face future challenges such as Brexit and climate change.

The government needs to be bolder, setting out a more ambitious set of priorities including energy projects, regional spending, and fostering capital recycling and private sector investment. A still more ambitious, but eminently feasible, proposal would be to establish a National Investment Bank to offer project guarantees, recommend user fees, lend to projects with the proceeds of National Investment Bonds and simplify planning among other tasks. In a serious downturn, with monetary policy exhausted, the NIB could also help to co-ordinate and finance a response.

Discussion around the time of the budget focuses on the state of the Government's finances, both in terms of the balance of income and expenditure, and also on their implications for the government balance sheet. Despite the wide-ranging nature of some of the budget commentary, the issue of the national balance sheet received no discussion there and attracts little attention generally.

In discussions of defence policy and of disarmament there are often references to the economic aspects of defence expenditure. This article is intended to provide a background to such discussions. It is a factual and statistical analysis of the level and pattern of defence expenditure over the past ten years. The sources and methods used in the estimates are described in an appendix.

The world of work is changing in ways that were not anticipated at the start of the century. Technology, globalisation and the creation of new business models based on digital platforms are creating new types of jobs, contracting arrangements and transactions. As Diane Coyle describes in her paper on work in the digital economy, temporary and flexible contracts are proliferating, with an estimated 905,000 people on ‘zero hours’, 29 per cent higher than in 2014. While remote working has been common in sectors such as IT for some time, the workplace itself has transformed for many and is in some cases virtual rather than physical. These changes offer opportunities for some, including those who are excluded from traditional work modes, and challenges for others. Platform models such as the on-line marketplace Etsy may facilitate access to the formal labour market for the economically inactive or long-term unemployed but offer little social protection. Regardless of the outcome of current legal disputes over the employment status of ‘employees’ or ‘service providers’ in the ‘gig’ economy, because of difficulties in enforcement, these new forms of work carry a strong potential to exacerbate inequalities in the labour market which are apparent in disparities by social class, ethnicity and gender.

Work absorbs a huge share of the lives of most people. It is the major source of income. How people fare at work, the conditions under which they work and the mechanisms for remedying problems at work impact subjective well-being, labour market behaviour, and mental and physical health. While economic analysis treats work as creating disutility, many people are workaholics for reasons beyond income, and one of the robust findings from the new economics of happiness is that unemployment is one of the major depressants of subjective well-being. The independent Strategic Review of Health Inequalities, headed by Professor Sir Michael Marmot, noted in its June 8, 2009 policy dialogue that “employment conditions influence health both directly and indirectly” and argued for structural interventions at workplaces, organisations and broader policies to make a significant contribution toward healthier work. As the world economy has fallen into a sharp recession, the increase in joblessness, potential delays of retirement due to reduced value of pensions, particularly in the private sector, and the probable intensification of work among those who remain employed can be expected to have major impacts on well-being and social behaviour. It is therefore timely to devote an issue of the National Institute Economic Review to work and well-being.

The US economy appears to have avoided a technical recession this year. In the June issue of the quarterly accounts, which are considered as the first full estimate for the first quarter, first quarter GDP rose by 1 per cent on an annual basis, compared with 0.6 per cent growth recorded the quarter before. The relatively good growth was driven by net trade, with exports expanding at an annual rate of 5.3. The first-quarter contribution of net exports to GDP growth accounted for 0.8 percentage points of GDP growth expressed in annual terms.

The book just published is a study of the five major recessions since 1920, and seeks to establish their causes. It focuses on the UK, but sets events there in their international context, and makes frequent comparisons with other countries. It concentrates on the major recessions not only because the effects are greater, but because behaviour in big and small recessions differ; and appears to be the first study to do so.