In this paper we investigate the relationship between leverage and the level of economic activity in the United States, using quarterly data over the period 1951–2012. We address the question for five different measures of leverage—household leverage, nonfinancial firm leverage, commercial bank leverage, broker–dealer leverage, and shadow bank leverage—making a distinction between traditional banks and shadow banks, the latter being a consequence of financial innovation and deregulation in the financial services industry over the past 30 years. We investigate whether the relationship between leverage and the level of economic activity is nonlinear and asymmetric using slope-based tests as well as tests of the null hypothesis of symmetric impulse responses. Our results inform policymakers about the important distinction between traditional banks and the market-based financial intermediaries that have been at the center of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009. They also inform about the macroeconomic effects of the deleveraging process that began in 2008, as well as about the need for countercyclical macroprudential policies to reduce the procyclicality of the financial system.

We formulate an overlapping-generations model with household heterogeneity and productive and nonproductive government programs to study the macroeconomic and intergenerational welfare effects of risk premium shocks and government debt reductions. We demonstrate that in a small open economy with a high level of debt, a small increase in the risk premium of the interest rate leads to a substantial contraction in output and negative welfare effects. We then quantify the effects of reducing the debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio using a wide range of fiscal austerity measures. Our results indicate trade-offs between short-run contractions and long-run expansions in aggregate output. In the short run, spending-based austerity reforms are worse than tax-based reforms in terms of lost income. However, in the long run, spending-based reforms produce higher output than tax-based reforms. In addition, welfare effects vary significantly across generations, skill groups, and working sectors. The current old and middle-aged generations experience welfare losses, whereas future generations are beneficiaries of the reforms.

In an attempt to clean up an unruly literature, we specify the necessary and sufficient conditions for household optimality in a model where money is the only financial asset and provide the relevant proofs. We use our results to analyze when deflationary bubbles can and cannot exist. Our findings are in contrast to the results in several prominent contributions to the literature. We argue for particular specifications of the no-Ponzi-game restrictions on the representative household's and the government's intertemporal budget constraints in a model with money and bonds. Using the restriction on the household we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for household optimality. The resulting equilibrium terminal conditions are then used to demonstrate that the existence of bonds does not affect when deflationary bubbles can and cannot occur. This result differs from that in other recent works.

In this paper, we analyze the effects of demographic change on a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system, financed with a defined contribution scheme. In particular, we examine the relationship between retirement, fertility, and pensions in a three-period overlapping generations model. We focus on both the case of mandatory retirement and the case where the retirement age is freely chosen. In the case of mandatory retirement, increasing longevity has an unambiguously negative impact on fertility and pension payouts and a positive effect on the level of physical capital in the steady state. On the other hand, when agents choose the time of retirement, an increase in life expectancy positively affects physical capital only when the tax rate is sufficiently low and can have a positive impact on pension benefits, because agents may find it optimal to retire later and to decrease fertility less. Finally, the effects of the social security tax on capital per worker are negative with mandatory retirement; however, they could be positive in the optimal retirement case.

Specification tests reject a linear inflation forecasting model over the period 1959–2002. Based on this finding, we evaluate the out-of-sample inflation forecasts of a fully nonparametric model for 1994–2002. Our two main results are that: (i) nonlinear models produce much better forecasts than linear models, and (ii) including money growth in the nonparametric model yields marginal improvements, but including velocity reduces the mean squared forecast error by as much as 40%. A threshold model fits the data well over the full sample, offering an interpretation of our findings. We conclude that it is important to account for both nonlinearity and the behavior of monetary aggregates when forecasting inflation.

A seasonal commodity is one that either (1) is not available during certain seasons or (2) is always available but its prices or quantities fluctuate with the season or time of year. The existence of type-1 seasonal commodities in consumer preference functions means that the usual economic approach to index number theory cannot be applied to construct a short-term month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter consumer price index. We postulate various separability assumptions on intertemporal preferences that can be used to justify various seasonal index number formulas. One of our approaches leads to an index number solution to the problem of seasonal adjustment.

This paper investigates the growth experience of one country in detail in order to enhance our understanding of important factors that affect economic growth. Using a two-sector model, we identify low productivity growth in the agricultural sector as the main reason for the divergence of income per capita between Turkey and its peer countries between 1968 and 2005. An extended model that incorporates distortions in the use of intermediate goods in producing agricultural output indicates that policies that have different effects across sectors and across time may be important in explaining the growth experience of countries.

When finite lifetime is introduced in a Lucas [Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (1988), 3–42] growth model where the source of pollution is physical capital, the environmental policy may enhance the growth rate of a market economy, whereas pollution does not influence educational activities, labor supply is not elastic, and human capital does not enter the utility function. The result arises from the generational turnover effect due to finite lifetime and it remains valid under conditions when the education sector uses final output as well as time to accumulate human capital. This article also demonstrates that ageing reduces the positive influence of environmental policy when growth is driven by human capital accumulation à la Lucas in the overlapping-generations model of Yaari [Review of Economic Studies 32 (1965), 137–150] and Blanchard [Journal of Political Economy 93 (1985), 223–247].

Unit root tests suggest that shocks to relative income across U.S. states are permanent, which contradicts the stochastic convergence hypothesis. We suggest that this finding is due to the well-known low-power problem of unit root tests in the presence of high persistence (i.e., low speed of convergence) and small samples. First, interval estimates of the largest autoregressive root for the relative income in the 48 U.S. contiguous states are quite wide, including many alternatives that are persistent but stable. Second, interval estimates of the half-life of relative income shocks that are robust to high persistence and small samples suggest that in most cases shocks die out within zero to ten years. Third, estimation of a fractionally integrated model for the relative income process suggests strong evidence of mean reversion in the data. These findings provide ample support for the stochastic convergence hypothesis.

This paper devises a fiscal policy by means of which the first-best optimal equilibrium can be attained as a market equilibrium in an endogenous growth model with public capital. The optimal equilibrium requires that public (private) investment be zero along the transition to the balanced growth path if the initial ratio of public to private capital is higher (lower) than its long-term value. We also show that the transitional dynamics can be determined by noting that the continuity of the shadow prices involves the continuity of the consumption path.

This paper studies the determinacy properties of monetary and fiscal policy rules in a small-scale New Keynesian model. We modify the standard model in two ways. First, we allow positive public debt in the steady state as in Leeper [Journal of Monetary Economics 27, 129–147 (1991)]. Second, we add rule-of-thumb consumers as in Bilbiie [Journal of Economic Theory 140, 162–196 (2008)]. Leeper studied a model in which Ricardian equivalence holds, and he showed that monetary and fiscal policy can be studied independently. In Bilbiie's analysis, rule-of-thumb consumers break the Ricardian equivalence and generate important consequences for the design of monetary policy. In his model, steady-state public debt was equal to zero. We study a model with both rule-of-thumb consumers and positive steady-state public debt. We find that the mix of fiscal and monetary policies that guarantees equilibrium determinacy is sensitive to the exact values of the parameters of the model.

This study addresses two significant limitations in the literature on cross-country expenditure comparisons: (a) treatment of all countries, large and small, as single entities with no spatial differences inside the countries, and (b) use of Divisia price indices, rather than Rank 3 preference-based “exact price” indices, in the expenditure comparisons. This paper compares alternative preference consistent methods for estimating spatial price differences in a large heterogeneous country, namely India, that are benchmarked against the spatial prices generated by the Laspyeres and Tornqvist price indices. Unlike the use of conventional price indices, the use of demand-systems-based methods allows the incorporation of price-induced substitution effects between items. The paper illustrates the usefulness of the methodology by using the “exact” spatial price indices, in conjunction with the inequality-sensitive welfare measure due to Sen, to rank the Indian states and examine changes in ranking during one of the most significant periods in independent India. The results have methodological and empirical implications that extend far beyond India.

We investigate the role of nonseparable preferences in the occurrence of macroeconomic instability under a balanced-budget rule where government spending is financed by a tax on labor income. Considering a one-sector neoclassical growth model with a large class of nonseparable utility functions, we find that expectations-driven fluctuations occur easily when consumption and labor are Edgeworth substitutes or weak Edgeworth complements. Under these assumptions, an intermediate range of tax rates and a sufficiently low elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption lead to instability.

This study investigates the relationship between the sustainability of public debt and inequality in an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous agents. We show that the threshold for the sustainability of public debt is related to not only the relative size of public debt but also inequality. In addition, this study examines the effects of budget deficit and redistributive policies on the sustainability of public debt and inequality. We show that an increase in the deficit ratio or the redistributive tax makes public debt less sustainable. If the economy falls into the unsustainable region as a result of the policy change, both public debt and inequality continue to increase.

Weak separability is a key admissibility property in the Divisia approach to monetary aggregation. We test groups of U.K. household sector monetary assets for weak separability using new data underlying the Bank of England's benchmark revision of its household sector Divisia index. Nonparametric tests are used to identify four monetary asset groupings, which are weakly separable over all or almost all of the post-ERM period (1992:4–2005:1). We construct Divisia monetary aggregates for these four groupings and investigate their information content in two applications. The main findings are that Divisia money has direct effects on aggregate demand and that the growth rates of the nominal Divisia monetary aggregates Granger cause nominal output growth, but not inflation.

We study comparative statics results for the steady-state monetary equilibria of a simple random matching model of money with endogenous prices and no extrinsic uncertainty. Some of the results appear counterintuitive (both when take-it-or-leave-it offer or when Nash–Rubinstein bargaining is used in the model). Consistency of the equilibrium expectations causes the partial equilibrium intuitions to be reversed. We then proceed to apply the new insights to the analysis of sunspot equilibria in these type of models of bilateral trade with money.

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature, which is in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values under RE. Positive effects of fiscal policy are demonstrated during times of economic stress like the recent Great Recession. Finally, it is shown how learning can lead to consumption and investment dynamics empirically documented during some episodes of “fiscal consolidations.”

This paper investigates the effect of financial shocks using a general equilibrium model that links the firm's flows of financing with labor market variables. The results show that financial shocks have sizeable effects on debt, dividend payout, and wages. Shocks to the job destruction rate are important in explaining fluctuations in unemployment. The analysis also investigates the underlying driving forces of some key comovements in the data and finds shocks to the job destructions rate important.

This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy in an economy with endogenous firm entry, a cash-in-advance constraint, and preset wages. Firms must make profits to cover entry costs; thus the markup on goods prices is efficient. However, because leisure is not priced at a markup, the consumption–leisure trade-off is distorted. Consequently, the real wage, hours, and production are suboptimally low. Because of the labor requirement for entry, insufficient labor supply also implies that entry is too low. This paper shows that in the absence of fiscal instruments such as labor income subsidies, the optimal monetary policy achieves higher welfare under sticky wages than under flexible wages. The policy maker uses the money supply instrument to raise the real wage—the cost of leisure—above its flexible-wage level, in response to expansionary shocks to productivity and entry costs. This increases labor supply, expanding production and firm entry.

This paper develops a microfounded macroeconomic modeling framework to investigate the relationship between informality and the income distribution. We show that multiple equilibria may rise if credit markets are imperfect and that there is a nondivisible entry cost in the formal economy. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that in the steady state, low levels of inequality are negatively correlated with high informality; conversely, high inequality exacerbates informality. This finding supports the hypothesis of an optimal level of inequality that minimizes the informal economy relative to the impact of other levels of inequality. However, for ordinary income distributions, changes in the level of inequality have only a slight effect on the informality rate. We calibrate the model using data on the U.S. and Mexican economies to estimate the level of inequality that minimizes the informality rate. The self-employment rate emerges as the most relevant determinant of the informality rate.