The controlled experiment is undoubtedly the ideal instrument for testing the effectiveness of a new rule of law or legal procedure: have one random half of the cases operate under the new rule, the other half under the old rule, and see what difference there is in the outcome.

It is commonly believed among criminal justice scholars that sentencing guidelines increase uniformity in sentencing at the cost of fairness. They reason that guideline systems rarely take all relevant case characteristics into consideration, and as a result, impose sentences in particular cases that are biased relative to the ideal or best sentence. This bias effect is one of the primary theoretical and practical challenges faced by courts and sentencing commissions in the last 30 years, and provides one of the strongest arguments against mandatory sentencing guidelines. This article identifies a second effect of guidelines on fairness, which has not been sufficiently acknowledged by the scholarly literature: the variance effect increases the fairness of sentences directly by increasing uniformity. This article uses statistical simulation to examine the relationship between the variance effect and the bias effect. The results provide substantial evidence that the variance effect is comparatively large, and that it may often outweigh the negative effects of bias. Under these conditions, sentencing guidelines will both increase uniformity and increase fairness.

New Haven has a population of just over 150,000, and approximately 15% of its population is nonwhite (virtually all Negroes). Just under 1% of the population is native or first generation Puerto Rican. Like many other New England cities, New Haven is highly “ethnic,” and is ethnically self-conscious. Besides the Negro segment of the population, almost 17% is of Italian stock; other identifiable nationality groups include Irish, German, Russian, and Polish. Many of the central Europeans are Jewish, and approximately two-thirds of the community is Roman Catholic. Negroes, Puerto Ricans, Italians, and to a lesser extent, Jews all tend to live within identifiable geographical boundaries. New Haven politics have tended to polarize around ethnic loyalties.

We are in the midst of a quickening, if inchoate, dispute as to whether Americans are an inherently violent people. Whatever the merits of this metapsychological discussion, there is no disagreement that Americans have a propensity to interpret both officially and unofficially the violence we do have (Waskow, 1966; Silver, 1968). The final report of the “violence commission” stands in this tradition, and by its size and scope, taken together with its supporting studies, aspires to culminate it.

We appreciate Professor Paternoster's evenhanded review of our article and consider many of his concerns legitimate differences of opinion. But it is, nevertheless, useful to specify the key points on which there is agreement or disagreement.