The usual concept of asymptotic independence, as discussed in the context of extreme value theory, requires the distribution of the coordinatewise sample maxima under suitable centering and scaling to converge to a product measure. However, this definition is too broad to conclude anything interesting about the tail behavior of the product of two random variables that are asymptotically independent. Here we introduce a new concept of asymptotic independence which allows us to study the tail behavior of products. We carefully discuss equivalent formulations of asymptotic independence. We then use the concept in the study of a network traffic model. The usual infinite source Poisson network model assumes that sources begin data transmissions at Poisson time points and continue for random lengths of time. It is assumed that the data transmissions proceed at a constant, nonrandom rate over the entire length of the transmission. However, analysis of network data suggests that the transmission rate is also random with a regularly varying tail. So, we modify the usual model to allow transmission sources to transmit at a random rate over the length of the transmission. We assume that the rate and the time have finite mean, infinite variance and possess asymptotic independence, as defined in the paper. We finally prove a limit theorem for the input process showing that the centered cumulative process under a suitable scaling converges to a totally skewed stable Lévy motion in the sense of finite-dimensional distributions.

A Markov chain model for a battle between two opposing forces is formulated, which is a stochastic version of one studied by F. W. Lanchester. Solutions of the backward equations for the final state yield martingales and stopping identities, but a more powerful technique is a time-reversal analogue of a known method for studying urn models. A general version of a remarkable result of Williams and McIlroy (1998) is proved.

In this paper, we consider denumerable-state continuous-time Markov decision processes with (possibly unbounded) transition and reward rates and general action space under the discounted criterion. We provide a set of conditions weaker than those previously known and then prove the existence of optimal stationary policies within the class of all possibly randomized Markov policies. Moreover, the results in this paper are illustrated by considering the birth-and-death processes with controlled immigration in which the conditions in this paper are satisfied, whereas the earlier conditions fail to hold.

We study Bernoulli bond percolation on Sierpiński carpet lattices, which is a class of graphs corresponding to generalized Sierpiński carpets. In this paper we give a sufficient condition for the existence of a phase transition on the lattices. The proof is suitable for graphs which have self-similarity. We also discuss the relation between the existence of a phase transition and the isoperimetric dimension.

This paper first recalls some stochastic orderings useful for studying the ℒ-class and the Laplace order in general. We use these orders to show that the higher moments of an ℒ-class distribution need not exist. Using simple sufficient conditions for the Laplace ordering, we give examples of distributions in the ℒ- and ℒα-classes. Moreover, we present explicit sharp bounds on the survival function of a distribution belonging to the ℒ-class of life distributions. The results reveal that the ℒ-class should not be seen as a more comprehensive class of ageing distributions but rather as a large class of life distributions on its own.

A large deviation expansion is used to evaluate the impact of errors in a geographical database on the computation of travel times. We work in the framework of discrete random variables and improve a theorem by Book to solve this problem. Simulations are provided to illustrate the methodology.

We consider one-dimensional processes in which particles annihilate their neighbours, grow until they meet their neighbours or are deposited onto surfaces. All of the models considered have the property that they are connected to exponential series often by an inclusion-exclusion argument.

This paper studies inspected systems with non-self-announcing failures where the rate of deterioration is governed by a Markov chain. We compute the lifetime distribution and availability when the system is inspected according to a periodic inspection policy. In doing so, we expose the role of certain transient distributions of the environment.

In this paper, we introduce a bisexual Galton-Watson branching process with mating function dependent on the population size in each generation. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the process to become extinct with probability 1 are investigated for two possible conditions on the sequence of mating functions. Some results for the probability generating functions associated with the process are also given.

We consider a finite-capacity queueing system where arriving customers offer rewards which are paid upon acceptance into the system. The gatekeeper, whose objective is to ‘maximize’ rewards, decides if the reward offered is sufficient to accept or reject the arriving customer. Suppose the arrival rates, service rates, and system capacity are changing over time in a known manner. We show that all bias optimal (a refinement of long-run average reward optimal) policies are of threshold form. Furthermore, we give sufficient conditions for the bias optimal policy to be monotonic in time. We show, via a counterexample, that if these conditions are violated, the optimal policy may not be monotonic in time or of threshold form.

In this paper, we introduce a compound random mapping model which can be viewed as a generalization of the basic random mapping model considered by Ross and by Jaworski. We investigate a particular example, the Poisson compound random mapping, and compare results for this model with results known for the well-studied uniform random mapping model. We show that, although the structure of the components of the random digraph associated with a Poisson compound mapping differs from the structure of the components of the random digraph associated with the uniform model, the limiting distribution of the normalized order statistics for the sizes of the components is the same as in the uniform case, i.e. the limiting distribution is the Poisson-Dirichlet (½) distribution on the simplex {{xi} : ∑ xi ≤ 1, xi ≥ xi+1 ≥ 0 for every i ≥ 1}.

The following problem in risk theory is considered. An insurance company, endowed with an initial capital a ≥ 0, receives premiums and pays out claims that occur according to a renewal process {N(t), t ≥ 0}. The times between consecutive claims are i.i.d. The sequence of successive claims is a sequence of i.i.d. random variables. The capital of the company is invested at interest rate α ∊ [0,1], claims increase at rate β ∊ [0,1]. The aim is to find the stopping time that maximizes the capital of the company. A dynamic programming method is used to find the optimal stopping time and to specify the expected capital at that time.

We consider a nonneutral population genetics model with parent-independent mutations and two selective classes. We calculate the stationary distribution of the type of the common ancestor of a sample of genes from this model. The expected fitness of any ancestor (including the most recent common ancestor of any sample) is shown to be greater than the expected fitness of a randomly chosen gene from the population. The process of mutations to the common ancestor is also analysed. Our results are related to, but more general than, results obtained from diffusion theory.

In a sequence of Markov-dependent trials, the optimal strategy which maximizes the probability of stopping on the last success is considered. Both homogeneous Markov chains and nonhomogeneous Markov chains are studied. For the homogeneous case, the analysis is divided into two parts and both parts are realized completely. For the nonhomogeneous case, we prove a result which contains the result of Bruss (2000) under an independence structure.

A class of continuous-time models is developed for modelling data with heavy tails and long-range dependence. These models are based on the Green function solutions of fractional differential equations driven by Lévy noise. Some exact results on the second- and higher-order characteristics of the equations are obtained. Applications to stochastic volatility of asset prices and macroeconomics are provided.

Often in the study of reliability and its applications, the goal is to maximize or minimize certain reliability characteristics or some cost functions. For example, burn-in is a procedure used to improve the quality of products before they are used in the field. A natural question which arises is how long the burn-in procedure should last in order to maximize the mean residual life or the conditional survival probability. In the literature, an upper bound for the optimal burn-in time is obtained by assuming that the underlying distribution of the products has a bathtub-shaped failure rate function; however, no lower bound is available. A similar question arises in studying replacement policy, warranty policy, and inspection models. This article gives a lower bound for the optimal burn-in time, and lower and upper bounds for the optimal replacement and warranty policies, under the same bathtub-shape assumption.

Asymptotic behaviour of the distribution of the absolute maximum of a process with independent increments is studied depending on the properties of the Lévy measure of the process. Some applications to the risk process are also considered.

We consider, in discrete time, a single machine system that operates for a period of time represented by a general distribution. This machine is subject to failures during operations and the occurrence of these failures depends on how many times the machine has previously failed. Some failures are repairable and the repair times may or may not depend on the number of times the machine was previously repaired. Repair times also have a general distribution. The operating times of the machine depend on how many times it has failed and was subjected to repairs. Secondly, when the machine experiences a nonrepairable failure, it is replaced by another machine. The replacement machine may be new or a refurbished one. After the Nth failure, the machine is automatically replaced with a new one. We present a detailed analysis of special cases of this system, and we obtain the stationary distribution of the system and the optimal time for replacing the machine with a new one.

Consider an optimization problem for a company with the following parameters: a constant liability payment rate (δ), an average return (μ) and a risk (σ) proportional to the size of the business unit, and an internal competition factor (α) between different units. The goal is to maximize the expected present value of the total dividend distributions, via controls (Ut, Zt), where Ut is the size of the business unit and Zt is the total dividend payoff up to time t. We formulate this as a stochastic control problem for a diffusion process Xt and derive an explicit solution by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The resulting optimal control policy involves a mixture of a nonlinear control for Ut and a singular control for Zt. The optimal strategies are different for the cases δ < 0 and δ = 0. When δ > 0, it is optimal to play bold: the initial optimal investment size should be proportional to the debt rate δ. Under this optimal rule, however, the probability of bankruptcy in finite time is 1. When δ = 0, i.e. when the company is free of debt, the probability of going broke in finite time reduces to 0. Moreover, when δ = 0, the value function is singular at X0 = 0. Our analytical result shows considerable consistency with daily business practices. For instance, it shows that ‘too many people is counter-productive’. In fact, the maximal optimal size of the business unit should be inversely proportional to α. This eliminates the redundant and simplistic technical assumption of a known uniform upper bound on the size of the firm.

In this paper, the class of periodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes is defined. It is shown that periodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are stationary Markov random fields and the class of stationary distributions is characterized. In particular, any self-decomposable distribution is the stationary distribution of some periodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. As examples, gamma periodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and Gaussian periodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are considered.