This paper studies a novel Brownian functional defined as the supremum of a weighted average of the running Brownian range and its running reversal from extrema on the unit interval. We derive the Laplace transform for the squared reciprocal of this functional, which leads to explicit moment expressions that are new to the literature. We show that the proposed Brownian functional can be used to estimate the spot volatility of financial returns based on high-frequency price observations.

We investigate the tail behavior of the first-passage time for Sinai’s random walk in a random environment. Our method relies on the connection between Sinai’s walk and branching processes with immigration in a random environment, and the analysis on some important quantities of these branching processes such as extinction time, maximum population, and total population.

We answer the following question: if the occupied (or vacant) set of a planar Poisson Boolean percolation model contains a crossing of an $n\times n$ square, how wide is this crossing? The answer depends on whether we consider the critical, sub-, or super-critical regime, and is different for the occupied and vacant sets.

We introduce gradient flow aggregation, a random growth model. Given existing particles $\{x_1,\ldots,x_n\} \subset \mathbb{R}^2$, a new particle arrives from a random direction at $\infty$ and flows in direction of the vector field $\nabla E$ where $ E(x) = \sum_{i=1}^{n}{1}/{\|x-x_i\|^{\alpha}}$, $0 < \alpha < \infty$. The case $\alpha = 0$ refers to the logarithmic energy ${-}\sum\log\|x-x_i\|$. Particles stop once they are at distance 1 from one of the existing particles, at which point they are added to the set and remain fixed for all time. We prove, under a non-degeneracy assumption, a Beurling-type estimate which, via Kesten’s method, can be used to deduce sub-ballistic growth for $0 \leq \alpha < 1$, $\text{diam}(\{x_1,\ldots,x_n\}) \leq c_{\alpha} \cdot n^{({3 \alpha +1})/({2\alpha + 2})}$. This is optimal when $\alpha = 0$. The case $\alpha = 0$ leads to a ‘round’ full-dimensional tree. The larger the value of $\alpha$, the sparser the tree. Some instances of the higher-dimensional setting are also discussed.

We derive large-sample and other limiting distributions of components of the allele frequency spectrum vector, $\mathbf{M}_n$, joint with the number of alleles, $K_n$, from a sample of n genes. Models analysed include those constructed from gamma and $\alpha$-stable subordinators by Kingman (thus including the Ewens model), the two-parameter extension by Pitman and Yor, and a two-parameter version constructed by omitting large jumps from an $\alpha$-stable subordinator. In each case the limiting distribution of a finite number of components of $\mathbf{M}_n$ is derived, joint with $K_n$. New results include that in the Poisson–Dirichlet case, $\mathbf{M}_n$ and $K_n$ are asymptotically independent after centering and norming for $K_n$, and it is notable, especially for statistical applications, that in other cases the limiting distribution of a finite number of components of $\mathbf{M}_n$, after centering and an unusual $n^{\alpha/2}$ norming, conditional on that of $K_n$, is normal.

We study a signaling game between an employer and a potential employee, where the employee has private information regarding their production capacity. At the initial stage, the employee communicates a salary claim, after which the true production capacity is gradually revealed to the employer as the unknown drift of a Brownian motion representing the revenues generated by the employee. Subsequently, the employer has the possibility to choose a time to fire the employee in case the estimated production capacity falls short of the salary. In this setup, we use filtering and optimal stopping theory to derive an equilibrium in which the employee provides a randomized salary claim and the employer uses a threshold strategy in terms of the conditional probability for the high production capacity. The analysis is robust in the sense that various extensions of the basic model can be solved using the same methodology, including cases with positive firing costs, incomplete information about an individual’s own type, as well as an additional interview phase.

In this note we provide an upper bound for the difference between the value function of a distributionally robust Markov decision problem and the value function of a non-robust Markov decision problem, where the ambiguity set of probability kernels of the distributionally robust Markov decision process is described by a Wasserstein ball around some reference kernel whereas the non-robust Markov decision process behaves according to a fixed probability kernel contained in the ambiguity set. Our derived upper bound for the difference between the value functions is dimension-free and depends linearly on the radius of the Wasserstein ball.

We consider a robust optimal investment–reinsurance problem to minimize the goal-reaching probability that the value of the wealth process reaches a low barrier before a high goal for an ambiguity-averse insurer. The insurer invests its surplus in a constrained financial market, where the proportion of borrowed amount to the current wealth level is no more than a given constant, and short-selling is prohibited. We assume that the insurer purchases per-claim reinsurance to transfer its risk exposure to a reinsurer whose premium is computed according to the mean–variance premium principle. Using the stochastic control approach based on the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, we derive robust optimal investment–reinsurance strategies and the corresponding value functions. We conclude that the behavior of borrowing typically occurs with a lower wealth level. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate our results.

A series of papers by Hickey (1982, 1983, 1984) presents a stochastic ordering based on randomness. This paper extends the results by introducing a novel methodology to derive models that preserve stochastic ordering based on randomness. We achieve this by presenting a new family of pseudometric spaces based on a majorization property. This class of pseudometrics provides a new methodology for deriving the randomness measure of a random variable. Using this, the paper introduces the Gini randomness measure and states its essential properties. We demonstrate that the proposed measure has certain advantages over entropy measures. The measure satisfies the value validity property, provides an adequate extension to continuous random variables, and is often more appropriate (based on sensitivity) than entropy in various scenarios.

We consider an $\mathrm{M}/\mathrm{G}/\infty$ queue with infinite expected service time. We then provide the transience/recurrence classification of the states (the system is said to be at state n if there are n customers being served), observing also that here (unlike irreducible Markov chains, for example) it is possible for recurrent and transient states to coexist. We also prove a lower bound on the growth speed in the transient case.

We consider continuous-state branching processes (CB processes) which become extinct almost surely. First, we tackle the problem of describing the stationary measures on $(0,+\infty)$ for such CB processes. We give a representation of the stationary measure in terms of scale functions of related Lévy processes. Then we prove that the stationary measure can be obtained from the vague limit of the potential measure, and, in the critical case, can also be obtained from the vague limit of a normalized transition probability. Next, we prove some limit theorems for the CB process conditioned on extinction in a near future and on extinction at a fixed time. We obtain non-degenerate limit distributions which are of the size-biased type of the stationary measure in the critical case and of the Yaglom distribution in the subcritical case. Finally we explore some further properties of the limit distributions.

Novel prediction methods should always be compared to a baseline to determine their performance. Without this frame of reference, the performance score of a model is basically meaningless. What does it mean when a model achieves an $F_1$ of 0.8 on a test set? A proper baseline is, therefore, required to evaluate the ‘goodness’ of a performance score. Comparing results with the latest state-of-the-art model is usually insightful. However, being state-of-the-art is dynamic, as newer models are continuously developed. Contrary to an advanced model, it is also possible to use a simple dummy classifier. However, the latter model could be beaten too easily, making the comparison less valuable. Furthermore, most existing baselines are stochastic and need to be computed repeatedly to get a reliable expected performance, which could be computationally expensive. We present a universal baseline method for all binary classification models, named the Dutch Draw (DD). This approach weighs simple classifiers and determines the best classifier to use as a baseline. Theoretically, we derive the DD baseline for many commonly used evaluation measures and show that in most situations it reduces to (almost) always predicting either zero or one. Summarizing, the DD baseline is general, as it is applicable to any binary classification problem; simple, as it can be quickly determined without training or parameter tuning; and informative, as insightful conclusions can be drawn from the results. The DD baseline serves two purposes. First, it is a robust and universal baseline that enables comparisons across research papers. Second, it provides a sanity check during the prediction model’s development process. When a model does not outperform the DD baseline, it is a major warning sign.

Previous approaches to modelling interval-censored data have often relied on assumptions of homogeneity in the sense that the censoring mechanism, the underlying distribution of occurrence times, or both, are assumed to be time-invariant. In this work, we introduce a model which allows for non-homogeneous behaviour in both cases. In particular, we outline a censoring mechanism based on a non-homogeneous alternating renewal process in which interval generation is assumed to be time-dependent, and we propose a Markov point process model for the underlying occurrence time distribution. We prove the existence of this process and derive the conditional distribution of the occurrence times given the intervals. We provide a framework within which the process can be accurately modelled, and subsequently compare our model to the homogeneous approach through a number of illustrative examples.