The differential demand system or Rotterdam model is extended to include lagged consumption through translation parameters, allowing habit and inventory effects. Applications of the model to annual U.S. expenditure and weekly juice sales data illustrate the importance of the time interval of an observation on the relative strengths of the habit inventory.

Recent empirical research and developments in the cattle industry suggest several reasons to suspect structural change in economic relationships determining cattle prices. Standard forecasting models may ignore structural change and may produce biased and misleading forecasts. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models that allow parameters to vary with time are used to forecast quarterly cattle prices. The VAR procedures are flexible in that they allow the identification of structural change that begins at an a priori unknown point and occurs gradually. The results indicate that the lowest RMSE for out-of-sample forecasts of cattle prices is obtained using a gradually switching VAR model. However, differences between the gradually switching VAR model and a univariate ARIMA model are not strongly significant. Impulse response functions indicate that adjustments of cattle prices to new information have become faster in recent years.

In a revised definition of the Davis-Goldberg concept of agribusiness, Sonka and Hudson suggest that the food and agribusiness sector might be thought of as a sequence of interrelated subsectors made up of: (1) genetics and seedstock firms, (2) input suppliers, (3) agricultural producers, (4) merchandisers or first handlers, (5) processors, (6) retailers, and (7) consumers. In applying this ubiquitous definition to global data, Goldberg (1991a) estimates that the food and agribusiness system is the largest economic sector in the world economy representing 50 percent of the global labor force, 50 percent of global assets, and 50 percent of global consumer expenditures.

Undergraduate programs in agribusiness education have attracted much interest in recent years. Many university facilities have developed agribusiness educational programs and others are considering the development of such programs. As these programs evolve throughout the country, there are many questions which relate to the structure and future directions of these educational efforts. A review of the issues related to agribusiness program development is presented. A planning process that can be used to focus on the many agribusiness educational issues and provide insight into agribusiness program development is outlined.

Forecast distributions based on historical yields and subjective expectations for 1987 expected crop yields were compared for 90 Western Kentucky grain farms. Different subjective probability elicitation techniques were also compared. In many individual cases, results indicate large differences between subjective and empirical moments. Overall, farmer expectations for 1987 corn yields were below those predicted from their past yields, while soybean expectations were above the historical forecast. Geographical location plays a larger role than crop in comparisons of relative variability of yield. Neither elicitation technique nor manager characteristics have significant effects on the comparisons of the forecasts.

Double-cropping of soybeans and wheat is often promoted by extension personnel. This paper seeks to explain how the decision to adopt double-cropping is made, using a Tobit regression model. Tobit makes use of more of the information in the data set than do logit or probit and explains not only the decision to double-crop but also the rate of adoption. The paper considers factors such as profit and risk perceptions and risk which have not been included in the past models used to explain adoption of technology. The results show that risk perception is important. Contrary to the findings of some other adoption studies, this decision in not influenced by human capital factors. The farmers who double-crop are more highly leveraged and appear to do so both to achieve higher income and as part of a risk diversification strategy. This is consistent with the importance of the location factor, measured as the average number of growing degree days at the farm's location. Growing degree days is a proxy for the actual distribution of returns from double-cropping and is the main factor explaining this decision. Extensive adoption of double-cropping in cooler regions of the Midwest must await technological advances that can increase the profitability of double-cropping by reducing the growing season for wheat and/or beans.

For several years, universities in the U.S. have been struggling with defining and refining undergraduate and graduate agribusiness education programs. With the release of the recommendations of the National Agribusiness Education Commission, the search for the key ingredients of a Masters-level program has intensified.

Mississippi State University has been among those universities attempting to define the parameters of a “cutting edge” agribusiness program. Faculty interest within the College of Business and Industry and the Agricultural Economics Department to develop a joint program has precipitated intensive efforts to achieve this goal. A nationally recognized agribusiness group of six academic leaders served as a Cooperative State Research Service team to assess the University's potential, using the concept of an agribusiness institute as an integrating and management vehicle. Efforts in this direction have been aided by a USDA planning grant now moving into its second year. A survey of Mid-South agribusiness leaders indicates the interest of the industry in the development of the program. The final step is to address the logistical details required to convert the current Master of Agribusiness Management in the Department of Agricultural Economics to a jointly administered program of study.

Data from a western Kansas feedlot were analyzed to estimate the quantitative impacts of price and performance variables on profits per head from finishing cattle. Sale prices, feeder prices, and corn prices had the most impact on profit variability over time. Differences in sale prices, feeder prices, and feed conversions were important in explaining the difference in steer and heifer profits over time. Results suggest that breakeven prices should be calculated for a range of fed cattle, feeder, and corn prices, and that these three variables need to be stochastic in representative farm modeling efforts.

This paper presents a summary of work by various groups on the potential for agribusiness research by agricultural economists over the past decade. Methodology to establish research priorities in agribusiness are reviewed. This review leads to a consideration of the agribusiness research issues including: funding sources, identifying users of agribusiness research, data needs, and limitations of agribusiness research programs.

The final part of the paper presents a potpourri of suggested research initiatives in agribusiness research for agricultural economists. Research in these areas may be difficult for a number of reasons including: decreased reliance on economic theory as the sole paradigm, providing competitive advantage to a single agribusiness firm while balancing public and private needs and funding sources, and data confidentiality. Suggestions for outlets for academic research are presented.

This study examined the supply of and demand for married female labor in the southern United States. Special attention was given to differences in labor force participation, labor supply, and quantities of labor supplied and demanded across rural and urban areas. Once state effects were accounted for, decisions to change participation were found not to vary by urban-rural designation. Differences in demand were fully captured by an intercept shifter and the variations in hours supplied by married females between urban and rural areas. Labor supply varied greatly with the effects of key determinants (number of children, work force experience, family income) being strongly different in rural areas. Different policies are needed to promote female labor supply in rural areas as opposed to urban areas.

The market for agribusiness extension activities and programming is diverse, intensely competitive, and national or international in scope. It is a market that agricultural economists cannot serve alone. Despite these complexities, a strong agribusiness extension effort is critical to the success of agribusiness research and teaching programs. Agribusiness extension opportunities include extending traditional agricultural economics research, small business management programs, economic/technical education programs, and management education. Keys for conducting successful agribusiness extension programs include understanding client needs, locating and employing the best instructional talent available, and flawless execution of the activity. Stimulating faculty interest in agribusiness extension is a major challenge. Most schools will have the opportunity to focus their traditional extension education efforts on the non-traditional agribusiness audience. A few schools will be successful in developing a new extension program emphasis in agribusiness management education. Both types of contributions are important for the long-run viability of the profession.

In this paper, a conceptual model for estimating option price for groundwater quality protection is developed, and the effects of subjective demand and supply uncertainty and other variables on option price are examined. A contingent valuation study to measure option price for groundwater quality protection was conducted in southwestern Georgia. Valuation results suggest that the monetary benefits to citizens of protecting groundwater supplies from agricultural chemical contamination are quite large.

The 1990 Farm Bill contains several measures concerning soil erosion caused by U.S. farmers. Data from a nationwide survey of people conerning their attitudes toward agriculture were used to examine the structure of respondents' preferences for government support-policies to combat soil erosion. Estimates of the influence of socio-economic and demographic variables on policy preferences were computed using a multiple-indicator model. Results show more support for the regulation of soil erosion, including laws and fines, than for government financial support.

Methyl parathion or Penncap M (an encapsulated methyl parathion) are used extensively throughout the United States for controlling stink bug pests in soybeans, Glycine Max (L.) Merrill. However, this insecticide is highly toxic to mammals, birds, and non-target arthropods, and thus is less environmentally sound than other insecticides. For environmental and human health considerations, investigating alternative insecticides for control is desired. For this investigation, research based on field experimental data from Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana during the 1988 and 1989 growing seasons were employed. Results indicate that alternative, currently available, and less toxic insecticides may reduce producer costs, increase yield, and improve soybean quality. These alternative insecticides include Scout (tralomethrin), Karate (lambda-cyhalothrin), Orthene (acephate), and Baythroid (cyfluthrin). In terms of improved profits these alternative insecticides may dominate methyl parathion or encapsulated methyl parathion.

Over 90 percent of interstate produce movements are by truck. In recent years, concerns have been raised regarding the adequacy of motor carrier services. Reasons for these concerns include the possibility of increased costs or service erosions resulting from relaxed economic regulations, an eroding road infrastructure, increasing congestion, more stringent safety regulations, demographic trends suggesting the onset of an increasingly severe driver shortage, and declines in rail capacity devoted to produce haulage. In this study, trends in the adequacy of trucking services for trucking during the 1980s was examined employing data sets developed by the USDA regarding haulage from five growing areas to six metropolitan areas across the United States, and a case study based on over 9,000 interviews with drivers hauling Rorida produce, conducted between 1982 and 1989. The results of the study suggest that there have been no erosions in service adequacies.

In June 1991, the United States and Mexico agreed to work toward the formation of a free trade area (FTA), in which trade barriers between the two countries will be gradually reduced and eUrninated. An FTA is expected to deepen a trade relationship that has always been important to the two countries, and which has been expanded by the unilateral trade liberalization initiated by Mexico in 1983. A U.S. Mexico FTA will be an important development for U.S. agriculture. In 1990, Mexico ranked among the top four markets for U.S. agricultural exports nd imports. Mexico's share of U.S. agricultural trade has increased since the mid-1980s, and could expand further if trade barriers are removed.