The analysis of ‘moderation’, ‘interaction’, ‘mediation’ and ‘longitudinal growth’ is widespread in the human sciences, yet subject to confusion. To clarify these concepts, it is essential to state causal estimands, which requires the specification of counterfactual contrasts for a target population on an appropriate scale. Once causal estimands are defined, we must consider their identification. I employ causal directed acyclic graphs and single world intervention graphs to elucidate identification workflows. I show that when multiple treatments exist, common methods for statistical inference, such as multi-level regressions and statistical structural equation models, cannot typically recover the causal quantities we seek. By properly framing and addressing causal questions of interaction, mediation, and time-varying treatments, we can expose the limitations of popular methods and guide researchers to a clearer understanding of the causal questions that animate our interests.

The human sciences should seek generalisations wherever possible. For ethical and scientific reasons, it is desirable to sample more broadly than ‘Western, educated, industrialised, rich, and democratic’ (WEIRD) societies. However, restricting the target population is sometimes necessary; for example, young children should not be recruited for studies on elderly care. Under which conditions is unrestricted sampling desirable or undesirable? Here, we use causal diagrams to clarify the structural features of measurement error bias and target population restriction bias (or ‘selection restriction’), focusing on threats to valid causal inference that arise in comparative cultural research. We define any study exhibiting such biases, or confounding biases, as weird (wrongly estimated inferences owing to inappropriate restriction and distortion). We explain why statistical tests such as configural, metric and scalar invariance cannot address the structural biases of weird studies. Overall, we examine how the workflows for causal inference provide the necessary preflight checklists for ambitious, effective and safe comparative cultural research.

Confounding bias arises when a treatment and outcome share a common cause. In randomised controlled experiments (trials), treatment assignment is random, ostensibly eliminating confounding bias. Here, we use causal directed acyclic graphs to unveil eight structural sources of bias that nevertheless persist in these trials. This analysis highlights the crucial role of causal inference methods in the design and analysis of experiments, ensuring the validity of conclusions drawn from experimental data.

The transition to sedentary agricultural societies in northern China fuelled considerable demographic growth from 5000 to 2000 BC. In this article, we draw together archaeobotanical, zooarchaeological and bioarchaeological data and explore the relationship between several aspects of this transition, with an emphasis on the millet-farming productivity during the Yangshao period and how it facilitated changes in animal husbandry and consolidation of sedentism. We place the period of domestication (the evolution of non-shattering, initial grain size increase and panicle development) between 8300 and 4300 BC. The domestication and post-domestication of foxtail (Setaria italica) and broomcorn (Panicum miliaceum) millet increased their productivity substantially, with much greater rate of change than for rice (Oryza sativa). However, millets are significantly less productive per hectare than wet rice farming, a point reflected in the greater geographical expanse of northern Neolithic millet cultures (5000–3000 BC) in comparison with their Yangtze rice-growing counterparts. The domestication of pigs in the Yellow River region is evidenced by changes in their morphology after 6000 BC, and a transition to a millet-based diet c. 4500–3500 BC. Genetic data and isotopic data from dogs indicate a similar dietary transition from 6000 to 4000 BC, leading to new starch-consuming dog breeds. Significant population increase associated with agricultural transitions arose predominately from the improvement of these crops and animals following domestication, leading to the formation of the first proto-urban centres and the demic-diffusion of millet agriculture beyond central northern China between 4300–2000 BC.

Hunter–gatherer populations underwent a mass extinction in the Neolithic, and in present times face challenges such as explicit sedentarisation policies. An exception is in Nepal, where the nomadic Raute people receive monthly governmental individual payments. One consequence of the money transfers has been a significant increase in alcohol consumption, with nearly all individuals drinking industrially produced alcohol. Here we investigate the Raute demography based on a full census of 144 individuals. We show that the Raute exhibit the short life expectancies typical of other hunter–gatherer populations from Africa, Asia and America. Bayesian survival trajectory analysis demonstrated that heavy drinking by either parent substantially reduces offspring survival to age 15. Bayesian regressions revealed a significant effect of heavy drinking on maternal fertility by decreasing the number of living children and reducing the proportion of live children at the end of maternal reproductive life. Although the absence of data prior to monetary support precludes a direct assessment of long-term demographic trends, relatively stable population sizes over the last decades and a fertility rate close to the replacement rate rule out an imminent population crash. Further studies are required to elucidate the Rautes’ origins and relationship with other nomadic people in the region.

Previous research in the evolutionary and psychological sciences has suggested that markers or tags of ethnic or group membership may help to solve cooperation and coordination problems. Cheating remains, however, a problem for these views, insofar as it is possible to fake the tag. While evolutionary psychologists have suggested that humans evolved the propensity to overcome this free rider problem, it is unclear how this module might manifest at the group level. In this study, we investigate the degree to which native and non-native speakers of accents – which are candidates for tags of group membership – spoken in the UK and Ireland can detect mimicry. We find that people are, overall, better than chance at detecting mimicry, and secondly we find substantial inter-group heterogeneity, suggesting that cultural evolutionary processes drive the manifestations of cheater detection. We discuss alternative explanations and suggest avenues of further inquiry.

Natural selection should favour litter sizes that optimise trade-offs between brood-size and offspring viability. Across the primate order, the modal litter size is one, suggesting a deep history of selection favouring minimal litters in primates. Humans, however – despite having the longest juvenile period and slowest life-history of all primates – still produce twin births at appreciable rates, even though such births are costly. This presents an evolutionary puzzle. Why is twinning still expressed in humans despite its cost? More puzzling still is the discordance between the principal explanations for human twinning and extant empirical data. Such explanations propose that twinning is regulated by phenotypic plasticity in polyovulation, permitting the production of larger sib sets if and when resources are abundant. However, comparative data suggest that twinning rates are actually highest in poorer economies and lowest in richer, more developed economies. We propose that a historical dynamic of gene–culture co-evolution might better explain this geographic patterning. Our explanation distinguishes geminophilous and geminophobic cultural contexts, as those celebrating twins (e.g. through material support) and those hostile to twins (e.g. through sanction of twin-infanticide). Geminophilous institutions, in particular, may buffer the fitness cost associated with twinning, potentially reducing selection pressures against polyovulation. We conclude by synthesising a mathematical and empirical research programme that might test our ideas.

Humans show remarkable differences in social behaviour between families, groups, communities and cultures, whereas such group-level within-species variation in socio-behavioural propensities is typically overlooked in other species. Studies on intraspecific variation in animal social structures are needed to inform an evolutionary account of human sociality. Here, we study multiple independent bonobo populations (n = 6) in zoological settings to investigate if and how bonobos (n = 70) show group-specific signatures in sociality. By applying tailored Bayesian statistical methods, we find that beyond individual and dyadic variation, the groups substantially differ from each other in core dimensions of great ape sociality: social proximity, grooming and play. Moreover, the groups’ network structures are distinct regarding cohesiveness and clustering, with some groups forming cohesive wholes, while others showcasing high levels of sub-grouping. Overall, while there is consistent evidence of differences in sociality between the groups, the patterns of cohesiveness and clustering are not consistent across the networks. This suggests that rather than groups having different levels of sociality, different patterns of sociality exist in each group. These findings warrant caution with characterising bonobos’ behavioural phenotype at the species level, and identify an essential source of variation that needs to be integrated in phylogenetic analyses.

The maintenance of cross-cultural variation and arbitrary traditions in human populations is a key question in cultural evolution. Conformist transmission, the tendency to follow the majority, was previously considered central to this phenomenon. However, recent theory indicates that cognitive biases can greatly reduce its ability to maintain traditions. Therefore, we expanded prior models to investigate two other ways that cultural variation can be sustained: payoff-biased transmission and norm reinforcement. Our findings predict that both payoff-biased transmission and reinforcement can enhance conformist transmission's ability to maintain traditions. However, payoff-biased transmission can only sustain cultural variation if it is functionally related to environmental factors. In contrast, norm reinforcement readily generates and maintains arbitrary cultural variation. Furthermore, reinforcement results in path-dependent cultural dynamics, meaning that historical traditions influence current practices, even though group behaviours have changed. We conclude that environmental variation probably plays a role in functional cultural traditions, but arbitrary cultural variation is more plausibly due to the reinforcement of norm compliance.

Understanding and predicting human cooperative behaviour and belief dynamics remains a major challenge both from the scientific and practical perspectives. Because of the complexity and multiplicity of material, social and cognitive factors involved, both empirical and theoretical work tends to focus only on some snippets of the puzzle. Recently, a mathematical theory has been proposed that integrates material, social and cognitive aspects of behaviour and beliefs dynamics to explain how people make decisions in social dilemmas within heterogeneous groups. Here we apply this theory in two countries, China and Spain, through four long-term behavioural experiments utilising the Common Pool Resources game and the Collective Risk game. Our results show that material considerations carry the smallest weight in decision-making, while personal norms tend to be the most important factor. Empirical and normative expectations have intermediate weight in decision-making. Cognitive dissonance, social projection, logic constraints and cultural background play important roles in both decision-making and beliefs dynamics. At the individual level, we observe differences in the weights that people assign to factors involved in the decision-making and belief updating process. We identify different types of prosociality and rule-following associated with cultural differences, various channels for the effects of messaging, and culturally dependent interactions between sensitivity to messaging and conformity. Our results can put policy and information design on firmer ground, highlighting the need for interventions tailored to the situation at hand and to individual characteristics. Overall, this work demonstrates the theoretical and practical power of the theory in providing a more comprehensive understanding of human behaviour and beliefs.

With its linguistic and cultural diversity, Austronesia is important in the study of evolutionary forces that generate and maintain cultural variation. By analysing publicly available datasets, we have identified four classes of cultural features in Austronesia and distinct clusters within each class. We hypothesized that there are differing modes of transmission and patterns of variation in these cultural classes and that geography alone would be insufficient to explain some of these patterns of variation. We detected relative differences in the verticality of transmission and distinct patterns of cultural variation in each cultural class. There is support for pulses and pauses in the Austronesian expansion, a west-to-east increase in isolation with explicable exceptions, and correspondence between linguistic and cultural outliers. Our results demonstrate how cultural transmission and patterns of variation can be analysed using methods inspired by population genetics.

Punishment plays a role in human cooperation, but it is costly. Prior research shows that people are more cooperative when they expect to receive negative feedback for non-cooperation, even in the absence of costly punishment, which would have interesting implications for theory and applications. However, based on theories of habituation and cue-based learning, we propose that people will learn to ignore expressions of disapproval that are not clearly associated with material costs or benefits. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a between-subjects, 40-round public goods game (i.e. much longer than most studies), where participants could respond to others’ contributions by sending numerical disapproval messages, paying to reduce others’ earnings, or neither. Consistent with previous results, we observed steadily increasing contributions in the costly punishment condition. In contrast, contributions declined after the early rounds in the expressed disapproval condition, and were eventually no higher than the basic control condition with neither costly punishment nor disapproval ratings. In other words, costless disapproval may temporarily increase cooperation, but the effects fade. We discuss the theoretical and applied implications of our findings, including the unexpectedly high levels of cooperation in a second control condition.