Syndromic surveillance is a form of surveillance that generates information for public health action by collecting, analysing and interpreting routine health-related data on symptoms and clinical signs reported by patients and clinicians rather than being based on microbiologically or clinically confirmed cases. In England, a suite of national real-time syndromic surveillance systems (SSS) have been developed over the last 20 years, utilising data from a variety of health care settings (a telehealth triage system, general practice and emergency departments). The real-time systems in England have been used for early detection (e.g. seasonal influenza), for situational awareness (e.g. describing the size and demographics of the impact of a heatwave) and for reassurance of lack of impact on population health of mass gatherings (e.g. the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games).We highlight the lessons learnt from running SSS, for nearly two decades, and propose questions and issues still to be addressed. We feel that syndromic surveillance is an example of the use of ‘big data’, but contend that the focus for sustainable and useful systems should be on the added value of such systems and the importance of people working together to maximise the value for the public health of syndromic surveillance services.

Dog treats might be contaminated with Salmonella. In Canada and the USA, outbreaks of human salmonellosis related to exposure to animal-derived dog treats were reported. Consequently, surveillance data on Salmonella contamination of dog treats have been gathered in many countries, but not in Japan. In the current study, we investigated whether dog treats in Japan were contaminated with Salmonella. Overall, 303 dog treats (of which 255 were domestically produced) were randomly collected and the presence of Salmonella investigated. Seven samples were positive for Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica. Among these isolates, three were identified as serovar 4,5,12:i:–; two were serovar Rissen; and two were serovar Thompson. All serovar 4,5,12:i:– and Thompson isolates were resistant to one or more drugs. Two serovar Rissen isolates were fully susceptible to all tested antimicrobial agents. All Salmonella isolates were susceptible to cefotaxime, ciprofloxacin and nalidixic acid. The gene blaTEM was detected in two serovar 4,5,12:i:– isolates. The blaCTX−M and blaCMY genes were not detected in any isolates. This study demonstrated that dog treats in Japan could constitute a potential source of dog and human Salmonella infections, including multidrug-resistant Salmonella isolates.

In Sierra Leone, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak occurred with substantial differences between districts with someone even not affected. To monitor the epidemic, a community event-based surveillance system was set up, collecting data into the Viral Haemorrhagic Fever (VHF) database. We analysed the VHF database of Tonkolili district to describe the epidemiology of the EVD outbreak during July 2014–June 2015 (data availability). Multivariable analysis was used to identify risk factors for EVD, fatal EVD and barriers to healthcare access, by comparing EVD-positive vs. EVD-negative cases. Key-performance indicators for EVD response were also measured. Overall, 454 EVD-positive cases were reported. At multivariable analysis, the odds of EVD was higher among those reporting contacts with an EVD-positive/suspected case (odds ratio (OR) 2.47; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.44–2.50; P < 0.01) and those attending funeral (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01–1.04; P < 0.01). EVD cases from Kunike chiefdom had a lower odds of death (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.08–0.44; P < 0.01) and were also more likely to be hospitalised (OR 2.34; 95% CI 1.23–4.57; P < 0.05). Only 25.1% of alerts were generated within 1 day from symptom onset. EVD preparedness and response plans for Tonkolili should include social-mobilisation activities targeting Ebola/knowledge-attitudes-practice during funeral attendance, to avoid contact with suspected cases and to increase awareness on EVD symptoms, in order to reduce delays between symptom onset to alert generation and consequently improve the outbreak-response promptness.

We sought to address the prior limitations of symptom checker accuracy by analysing the diagnostic and triage feasibility of online symptom checkers using a consecutive series of real-life emergency department (ED) patient encounters, and addressing a complex patient population – those with hepatitis C or HIV. We aimed to study the diagnostic and triage accuracy of these symptom checkers in relation to an emergency room physician-determined diagnosis. An ED retrospective analysis was performed on 8363 consecutive adult patients. Eligible patients included: 90 HIV, 67 hepatitis C, 11 both HIV and hepatitis C. Five online symptom checkers were utilised for diagnosis (Mayo Clinic, WebMD, Symptomate, Symcat, Isabel), three with triage capabilities. Symptom checker output was compared with ED physician-determined diagnosis data in regards to diagnostic accuracy and differential diagnosis listing, along with triage advice. All symptom checkers, whether for combined HIV and hepatitis C, HIV alone or hepatitis C alone had poor diagnostic accuracy in regards to Top1 (<20%), Top3 (<35%), Top10 (<40%), Listed at All (<45%). Significant variations existed for each individual symptom checker, as some appeared more accurate for listing the diagnosis in the top of the differential, vs. others more apt to list the diagnosis at all. In regards to ED triage data, a significantly higher percentage of hepatitis C patients (59.7%; 40/67) were found to have an initial diagnosis with emergent criteria than HIV patients (35.6%; 32/90). Symptom checker diagnostic capabilities are quite inferior to physician diagnostic capabilities. Complex patients such as those with HIV or hepatitis C may carry a more specific differential diagnosis, warranting symptom checkers to have diagnostic algorithms accounting for such complexity. Symptom checkers carry the potential for real-time epidemiologic monitoring of patient symptoms, as symptom entries and subsequent symptom checker diagnosis could allow health officials a means to track illnesses in specific patient populations and geographic regions. In order to do this, accurate and reliable symptom checkers are warranted.

The public health response to sporadic hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection, hepatitis A, can be complex especially when the index case is a child and no obvious source is identified. Identifying an infection source may avoid mass immunisation within schools when transmission is found to have occurred within the household. Screening of asymptomatic contacts via venepuncture can be challenging and unacceptable, as a result non-invasive methods may facilitate public health intervention. Enzyme-linked immunoassays were developed to detect HAV immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) in oral fluid (ORF). A validation panel of ORF samples from 30 confirmed acute HAV infections were all reactive for HAV IgM and IgG when tested. A panel of 40 ORF samples from persons known to have been uninfected were all unreactive. Two hundred and eighty household contacts of 72 index cases were screened by ORF to identify HAV transmission within the family and factors associated with household transmission. Almost half of households (35/72) revealed evidence of recent infection, which was significantly associated with the presence of children ⩽11 years of age (odds ratio 9.84, 95% confidence interval: 2.74–35.37). These HAV IgM and IgG immunoassays are easy to perform, rapid and sensitive and have been integrated into national guidance on the management of hepatitis A cases.

Louse-borne relapsing fever (LBRF) is an epidemic disease with a fascinating history from Hippocrates’ times, through the 6th century ‘Yellow Plague’, to epidemics in Ireland, Scotland and England in the 19th century and two large Afro-Middle Eastern pandemics in the 20th century. An endemic focus persists in Ethiopia and adjacent territories in the Horn of Africa. Since 2015, awareness of LBRF in Europe, as a re-emerging disease, has been increased dramatically by the discovery of this infection in dozens of refugees arriving from Africa.

The causative spirochaete, Borrelia recurrentis, has a genome so similar to B. duttonii and B. crocidurae (causes of East and West African tick-borne relapsing fever), that they are now regarded as merely ecotypes of a single genomospecies. Transmission is confined to the human body louse Pediculus humanus corporis, and, perhaps, the head louse P. humanus capitis, although the latter has not been proved. Infection is by inoculation of louse coelomic fluid or faeces by scratching. Nosocomial infections are possible from contamination by infected blood. Between blood meals, body lice live in clothing until the host's body temperature rises or falls, when they seek a new abode.

The most distinctive feature of LBRF, the relapse phenomenon, is attributable to antigenic variation of borrelial outer-membrane lipoprotein. High fever, rigors, headache, pain and prostration start abruptly, 2–18 days after infection. Petechial rash, epistaxis, jaundice, hepatosplenomegaly and liver dysfunction are common. Severe features include hyperpyrexia, shock, myocarditis causing acute pulmonary oedema, acute respiratory distress syndrome, cerebral or gastrointestinal bleeding, ruptured spleen, hepatic failure, Jarisch–Herxheimer reactions (J-HR) and opportunistic typhoid or other complicating bacterial infections. Pregnant women are at high risk of aborting and perinatal mortality is high.

Rapid diagnosis is by microscopy of blood films, but polymerase chain reaction is used increasingly for species diagnosis. Severe falciparum malaria and leptospirosis are urgent differential diagnoses in residents and travellers from appropriate geographical regions.

High untreated case-fatality, exceeding 40% in some historic epidemics, can be reduced to less than 5% by antibiotic treatment, but elimination of spirochaetaemia is often accompanied by a severe J-HR.

Epidemics are controlled by sterilising clothing to eliminate lice, using pediculicides and by improving personal hygiene.

We evaluate the utility of the National Surveys of Attitudes and Sexual Lifestyles (Natsal) undertaken in 2000 and 2010, before and after the introduction of the National Chlamydia Screening Programme, as an evidence source for estimating the change in prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) in England, Scotland and Wales. Both the 2000 and 2010 surveys tested urine samples for CT by Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests (NAATs). We examined the sources of uncertainty in estimates of CT prevalence change, including sample size and adjustments for test sensitivity and specificity, survey non-response and informative non-response. In 2000, the unadjusted CT prevalence was 4.22% in women aged 18–24 years; in 2010, CT prevalence was 3.92%, a non-significant absolute difference of 0.30 percentage points (95% credible interval −2.8 to 2.0). In addition to uncertainty due to small sample size, estimates were sensitive to specificity, survey non-response or informative non-response, such that plausible changes in any one of these would be enough to either reverse or double any likely change in prevalence. Alternative ways of monitoring changes in CT incidence and prevalence over time are discussed.

The clinical characteristics of male patients with pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex disease have not been clearly defined. We aimed to clarify the clinical characteristics of male patients with pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex disease compared with female patients.

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex disease who visited the outpatient clinic of the Shinshu University Hospital between 2003 and 2016 and compared the clinical characteristics of male and female patients.

A total of 234 patients with pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex disease were identified (68 men and 166 women). Male patients were significantly older than female patients. Blood examination results showed that the lymphocyte count, total protein level and albumin level were significantly lower in men than in women. Chest imaging findings were broadly categorised into the fibrocavitary and nodular bronchiectasis types. There were no significant differences in chest imaging findings and the time from diagnosis to disease exacerbation between men and women.

During the study period, the incidence of the nodular bronchiectasis type of pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex disease in male patients increased compared with previous reports. Men had no difference in time to exacerbation compared with women.

As part of the evaluation of the French plan for the elimination of measles and rubella, we conducted a seroprevalence survey in 2013, aimed at updating seroprevalence data for people 18–32 years old. A secondary objective was to estimate measles incidence in this population during the 2009–2011 outbreak, and thus estimate the exhaustiveness of measles mandatory reporting. We used a cross-sectional survey design, targeting blood donors 18–32 years old, living in France since 2009, who came to give blood in a blood collecting site. We included 4647 people in metropolitan France, 806 people in Réunion Island and 496 in the French Caribbean. A further 3942 individuals were interviewed in the south-east region of metropolitan France to estimate the exhaustiveness of measles mandatory reporting. One of the main findings of this survey is that the proportion of people 18–32 years old susceptible to both measles and rubella infections remained high in France in 2013, 9.2% and 5.4%, respectively, in metropolitan France, even after the promotion campaigns about vaccination catch-up during and following the major measles epidemic in 2009–2011. Applying our results to French census data would suggest that around 1 million people aged 18–32 years old are currently susceptible to measles in France, despite this age group being one of the vaccination targets of the national measles elimination plan. Another important finding is that only an estimated 45% of the true number of cases in this age group was actually notified, despite notification being mandatory.

Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei is the largest urban agglomeration in northern China, but the spatiotemporal patterns and risk factors concerning hepatitis B virus (HBV) incidence in this area have been unclear. The present study aimed to reveal the spatiotemporal epidemiological features of HBV infection and quantify the association between HBV infection and socio-economic risk factors. The data on HBV cases in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei from 2007 to 2012 was collected for each county. The Bayesian space–time hierarchy model and the GeoDetector method were used to reveal spatiotemporal patterns and detect risk factors. High-risk regions were mainly distributed in the underdeveloped rural areas in the north and mid-south of the study region, while low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the urban and western areas. The HBV annual incidence rate decreased substantially over the 6-year period, dropping from 7.34/105 to 5.51/105. Compared with this overall trend, 38.5% of high-risk counties showed a faster decrease, and 35.9% of high-risk counties exhibited a slower decrease. Meanwhile, 29.7% of low-risk counties had a faster decrease, and 44.6% of low-risk counties exhibited a slower decrease. Socio-economic factors were strongly associated with the spatiotemporal patterns and variation. The population density and gross domestic product per capita were negatively associated with HBV transmission, with determinant powers of 0.17 and 0.12, respectively. The proportion of primary industry and the number of healthcare workers were positively associated with the disease incidence, with determinant powers of 0.11 and 0.8, respectively. The interactive effect between population density and the other factors exerted a greater influence on HBV transmission than that of these factors measured independently.

Upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) account for substantial attendances at emergency departments (EDs). There is a need to elucidate determinants of antibiotic prescribing in time-strapped EDs – popular choices for primary care despite highly accessible primary care clinics. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with purposively sampled physicians (n = 9) in an adult ED in Singapore. All interviews were analysed using thematic analysis and further interpreted using the Social Ecological Model to explain prescribing determinants. Themes included: (1) reliance on clinical knowledge and judgement, (2) patient-related factors, (3) patient–physician relationship factors, (4) perceived practice norms, (5) policies and treatment guidelines and (6) patient education and awareness. The physicians relied strongly on their clinical knowledge and judgement in managing URTI cases and seldom interfered with their peers’ clinical decisions. Despite departmental norms of not prescribing antibiotics for URTIs, physicians would prescribe antibiotics when faced with uncertainty in patients’ diagnoses, treating immunocompromised or older patients with comorbidities, and for patients demanding antibiotics, especially under time constraints. Participants had a preference for antibiotic prescribing guidelines based on local epidemiology, but viewed hospital policies on prescribing as a hindrance to clinical judgement. Participants highlighted the need for more public education and awareness on the appropriate use of antibiotics and management of URTIs. Organisational practice norms strongly influenced antibiotic prescribing decisions by physicians, who can be swayed by time pressures and patient demands. Clinical decision support tools, hospital guidelines and patient education targeting at individual, interpersonal and community levels could reduce unnecessary antibiotic use.

Norovirus is a predominant cause of infectious gastroenteritis in countries worldwide [1–5]. It accounts for approximately 50% of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and >90% of viral gastroenteritis outbreaks [6, 7]. The incubation period ranges between 10 and 48 h and illness duration is generally 1–3 days with self-limiting symptoms; however, this duration is often longer (e.g. 4–6 days) in vulnerable populations such as hospital patients or young children [2, 8]. Symptomatic infection of norovirus presents as acute vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal cramps and nausea, with severe vomiting and diarrhoea (non-bloody) being most common [2, 5, 9].

Manipur, an international border region has the highest incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection in India. Nevertheless, there have been no analytical reviews of research article published within this region. In this review, the authors aim to draw the attention of policy makers, medical practitioners and researchers in adopting new strategies to limit the expansion of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) not only in Manipur but also in other international border areas. A systematic search for published literature in last decade was performed based on the keywords ‘Manipur’ and ‘HIV’ using the PubMed. Twenty-six articles were selected and reviewed. There were high incidence of drug resistance (53%), emergence of recombinant virus (32%) and increased incidence of co-infection with hepatitis C virus. The prime cause of the HIV is due to the uses of ‘heroin’ smuggled from the ‘South Asia Golden Triangle’ and complex patterns of cross-border movement for trade and commerce. The drug abuse, social stigma, geographical location and resource limitation and socio-political problem of the region have contributed strongly on spreading and failure of preventively programme of HIV/AIDS. This review will provide vital knowledge for the policy makers and clinicians for sentinel surveillance of AIDS pandemic in Manipur and other international border regions.

In a rational world, scientific effort would reflect society's needs. We tested this hypothesis using the area of infectious diseases, where the research response to emerging threats has obvious potential to save lives through informing interventions such as vaccination and prevention policies. Pathogens continue to evolve, emerge and re-emerge and infectious diseases that were once common become less so or their global distribution changes. A question remains as to whether scientific endeavours can adapt. Here, we identified papers on infectious diseases published in the four highest ranking, health-related journals over the 118 years from 1900. Focussing on outbreak-related and burden of disease-related metrics over the two time periods, 1990 to 2017 and 1900 to 2017, our analyses suggest that there is little underrepresentation of important infectious diseases among top ranked journals. Encouragingly our results suggest the scientific process is largely self-correcting.

We compared antibiotic prescribing to older people in different settings to inform antibiotic stewardship interventions. We used data linkage to stratify individuals aged 65 years and over in Northern Ireland, 1st January 2012–31st December 2013, by residence: community dwelling, care home dwelling or ‘transitioned’ if admitted to a care home. The odds of being prescribed an antibiotic by residence were analysed using logistic regression, adjusting for patient demographics and selected medication use (proxy for co-morbidities). Trends in monthly antibiotic prescribing were examined in the 6 months pre- and post-admission to the care home. The odds of being prescribed at least one antibiotic were twofold higher in care homes compared with community dwellers (adjusted odds ratio 2.05, 95% CI 1.93–2.17). There was a proportionate increase of 51.5% in the percentage prescribed an antibiotic on admission, with a monthly average of 23% receiving an antibiotic in the 6 months post admission. While clinical need likely accounts for some of the observed antibiotic prescribing in care homes we cannot rule out more liberal prescribing, given the twofold difference between care home residents and their community dwelling peers having accounted for co-morbidities. The appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in the care home setting should be examined.

Dengue fever is a disease with increasing incidence, now occurring in some regions which were not previously affected. Ribeirão Preto and São Paulo, municipalities in São Paulo state, Brazil, have been highlighted due to the high dengue incidences especially after 2009 and 2013. Therefore, the current study aims to analyse the temporal behaviour of dengue cases in the both municipalities and forecast the number of disease cases in the out-of-sample period, using time series models, especially SARIMA model. We fitted SARIMA models, which satisfactorily meet the dengue incidence data collected in the municipalities of Ribeirão Preto and São Paulo. However, the out-of-sample forecast confidence intervals are very wide and this fact is usually omitted in several papers. Despite the high variability, health services can use these models in order to anticipate disease scenarios, however, one should interpret with prudence since the magnitude of the epidemic may be underestimated.

This study aims to investigate the prevalence and genotype distribution of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection among men with different sexual orientations with or without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in China. A cross-sectional study was conducted during 2016–2017 in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province. Convenient sampling was used to recruit male participants from HIV voluntary counselling and testing clinics and Center for Disease Control and Prevention. A face-to-face questionnaire interview was administered and an anal-canal swab was collected for HPV genotyping. A total of 160 HIV-positive and 113 HIV-negative men participated in the study. The prevalence of any type HPV was 30.6% for heterosexual men, 74.1% for homosexual and 63.6% for bisexual men among HIV-positive participants, while the prevalence was 8.3%, 29.2% and 23.8% respectively among HIV-negatives. The most prevalent genotypes were HPV-58 (16.9%), HPV-6 (15.6%) and HPV-11 (15.0%) among HIV-positive men, and were HPV-16 (4.4%), HPV-52 (4.4%) and HPV-6 (3.5%) among HIV-negative men. Having ever had haemorrhoids and having ever seen blood on tissue after defaecation was associated with HPV infection. One-fourth of the HPV infections in this study population can be covered by the quadrivalent vaccine in market. The highly prevalent anal HPV infection among men especially HIV-infected men calls for close observation and further investigation for anal cancer prevention.

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) results in substantial numbers of hospitalisations and deaths in older adults. There are known lifestyle and medical risk factors for pneumococcal disease but the magnitude of the additional risk is not well quantified in Australia. We used a large population-based prospective cohort study of older adults in the state of New South Wales (45 and Up Study) linked to cause-specific hospitalisations, disease notifications and death registrations from 2006 to 2015. We estimated the age-specific incidence of CAP hospitalisation (ICD-10 J12-18), invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) notification and presumptive non-invasive pneumococcal CAP hospitalisation (J13 + J18.1, excluding IPD), comparing those with at least one risk factor to those with no risk factors. The hospitalised case-fatality rate (CFR) included deaths in a 30-day window after hospitalisation. Among 266 951 participants followed for 1 850 000 person-years there were 8747 first hospitalisations for CAP, 157 IPD notifications and 305 non-invasive pneumococcal CAP hospitalisations. In persons 65–84 years, 54.7% had at least one identified risk factor, increasing to 57.0% in those ⩾85 years. The incidence of CAP hospitalisation in those ⩾65 years with at least one risk factor was twofold higher than in those without risk factors, 1091/100 000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1060–1122) compared with 522/100 000 (95% CI 501–545) and IPD in equivalent groups was almost threefold higher (18.40/100 000 (95% CI 14.61–22.87) vs. 6.82/100 000 (95% CI 4.56–9.79)). The CFR increased with age but there were limited difference by risk status, except in those aged 45 to 64 years. Adults ⩾65 years with at least one risk factor have much higher rates of CAP and IPD suggesting that additional risk factor-based vaccination strategies may be cost-effective.

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are common among college-aged women and often recur. Some antibiotics recommended to treat UTIs trigger dysbiosis of intestinal and vaginal microbiomes – where uropathogens originate, though few studies have investigated associations between these therapies with recurrent infections. We retrospectively analysed the electronic medical records of 6651 college-aged women diagnosed with a UTI at a US university student health centre between 2006 and 2014. Women were followed for 6 months for incidence of a recurrent infection. In a secondary analysis, associations in women whose experienced UTI recurrence within 2 weeks were also considered for potential infection relapse. Logistic regression was used to assess associations between infection recurrence or relapse and antibiotics prescribed, in addition to baseline patient characteristics including age, race/ethnicity, region of origin, year of encounter, presence of symptomology, pyelonephritis, vaginal coinfection and birth control consultation. There were 1051 instances of infection recurrence among the 6620 patients, indicating a prevalence of 16%. In the analysis of patient characteristics, Asian women were statistically more likely to experience infection recurrence whereas African American were less likely. No significant associations were identified between the antibiotic administered at the initial infection and the risk of infection recurrence after multivariable adjustment. Treatment with trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole and being born outside of the USA were significantly associated with increased odds of infection relapse in the multivariate analysis. The results of the analyses suggest that treatment with trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole may lead to an increased risk of UTI relapse, warranting further study.

This study aimed to reveal the associated risk factors for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) detected by T-SPOT.TB assay among health care workers (HCWs) at different working locations or job categories in China. This cross-sectional study included 934 HCWs who underwent the T-SPOT.TB assay. Demographic and social characteristics of the participants, including age, sex, job categories, department/ward and duration of healthcare service, were recorded. Among 934 HCWs, 267 (28.5867%) were diagnosed as having LTBI with positive T-SPOT.TB assay. HCWs working in inpatient tuberculosis (TB) (odds ratio (OR) 2.917; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.852–4.596; P < 0.001) and respiratory wards (OR 1.840; 95% CI 1.124–3.011; P = 0.015), and with longer duration of healthcare service (OR 1.048; 95% CI 1.016–1.080; P = 0.003) were risk factors for positive T-SPOT.TB result. Furthermore, longer working duration increased the positive rate of T-SPOT.TB results for physicians and nurses, and physicians had higher risks than nurses for the same working duration. Inpatient TB and respiratory wards were high-risk working locations for HCWs with LTBI, and longer duration of healthcare service also increased the risk of LTBI among HCWs. A complete strategy for TB infection control and protection awareness among HCWs should be enhanced.