Mycobacterium bovis infects the wildlife species badgers Meles meles who are linked with the spread of the associated disease tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. Control of livestock infections depends in part on the spatial and social structure of the wildlife host. Here we describe spatial association of M. bovis infection in a badger population using data from the first year of the Four Area Project in Ireland. Using second-order intensity functions, we show there is strong evidence of clustering of TB cases in each the four areas, i.e. a global tendency for infected cases to occur near other infected cases. Using estimated intensity functions, we identify locations where particular strains of TB cluster. Generalized linear geostatistical models are used to assess the practical range at which spatial correlation occurs and is found to exceed 6 in all areas. The study is of relevance concerning the scale of localized badger culling in the control of the disease in cattle.

The disease pyramid of under-ascertainment for surveillance of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in New Zealand has been estimated using 2005–2007 data on notifiable diseases, a community telephone survey, and a survey of diagnostic laboratories. For each notified case of AGI there were an estimated 222 cases in the community, about 49 of which visited a general practitioner. Faecal samples were requested from about 15 of these cases, and 13 samples were provided. Of the faecal samples, pathogens were detected in about three cases. These ratios are similar to those reported in other developed countries, and provide baseline measurements of the AGI burden in the New Zealand community.

An outbreak of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection affected Roma populations living in three prefectures of northeastern Greece. Between July and November 2007, 124 cases were reported. We carried out investigations to characterize the pathogen, to identify the source of infection and the route of transmission. Using the RT–PCR technique, HAV strains of the same genotype were detected in all sera from a subset of patients with acute disease. These showed more than 99·8% identity, suggesting a common source. A questionnaire was also completed to collect clinical and epidemiological information. The outbreak affected mainly Roma children aged <10 years. An inspection of Roma settlements showed that poor sanitary conditions were associated with the HAV outbreak.

We assessed recent trends in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence in pregnant women with HIV using data from a large national study. Based on 1240 pregnancies, we observed a 3·4-fold decline in HCV seroprevalence in pregnant women with HIV between 2001 (29·3%) and 2008 (8·6%). This decline was the net result of two components: a progressively declining HCV seroprevalence in non-African women (from 35·7% in 2001 to 16·7% in 2008), sustained by a parallel reduction in history of injecting drug use (IDU) in this population, and a significantly growing presence (from 21·2% in 2001 to 48·6% in 2008) of women of African origin, at very low risk of being HCV-infected [average HCV prevalence 1%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for HCV 0·09, 95% CI 0·03–0·29]. Previous IDU was the stronger determinant of HCV co-infection in pregnant women with HIV (aOR 30·9, 95% CI 18·8–51·1). The observed trend is expected to translate into a reduced number of cases of vertical HCV transmission.

Puumala virus (PUUV) is a zoonotic rodent-borne hantavirus in continental Europe. Its reservoir host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), is ubiquitous in Great Britain (GB); however, there has been no reported incidence of virus in either animals or humans. In northwest Europe, increases in bank vole numbers, stimulated by increases in production of beech/oak crops (mast), are associated with outbreaks of nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans. These so-called ‘mast years’ are determined by sequential climatic events. This paper investigates the contribution of a number of ecological and environmental factors driving outbreaks of PUUV in northwest Europe and assesses whether such factors might also permit enzootic PUUV circulation in GB. Analysis of GB climate data, using regression models, confirms that mast years in GB are stimulated, and can be predicted, by the same climatic events as mast years in PUUV-endemic regions of northwest Europe. A number of other possible non-climatic constraints on enzootic cycles are discussed.

Staphylococcus aureus is an important human pathogen and is a growing public health concern. In this study, 130 S. aureus, 93 methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) and 37 methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA), clinical isolates recovered from Lebanon were typed by protein A gene (spa) sequencing and multi-locus sequence typing (MLST). Forty-eight different spa types were identified and clustered into 30 different groups. MLST revealed 10 sequence types (STs) among the isolates. There were eight major MRSA clones defined as isolates with the same ST and the same SCCmec type. The majority of the PVL-positive isolates (53%) were ST80-MRSA-IVc. Systematic surveillance of both hospital and community isolates in Lebanon together with measures designed to limit the spread are required.

Canadian cases and outbreaks of illness caused by Listeria monocytogenes between 1995 and 2004 were assessed. Isolates (722 total) were characterized by serotyping, and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) was performed to provide a means of detecting case clusters. Rates of listeriosis remained fairly consistent during the period of study, and patient characteristics were similar to those seen in studies of other populations. Most isolates were obtained from blood and cerebrospinal fluid, although during some outbreak investigations isolates were also obtained from stools. Serotype 1/2a predominated in isolates from patients in Canada, followed by serotypes 4b and 1/2b. Outbreaks caused by L. monocytogenes that occurred during the period of study were caused by isolates with serotypes 1/2a and 4b. A retrospective analysis of PFGE data uncovered several clusters that might have represented undetected outbreaks, suggesting that comprehensive prospective PFGE analysis coupled with prompt epidemiological investigations might lead to improved outbreak detection and control.

We examined the relationship between meteorological parameters and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) activity. Meteorological data collected from 2000 to 2004 were tested for correlation with HFMD consultation rates calculated through the sentinel surveillance system in Hong Kong. The regression model constructed was used to predict HFMD consultation rates for 2005–2009. After adjusting for the effect of collinearity, mean temperature, diurnal difference in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were positively associated with HFMD consultation rates, and explained HFMD consultation rates well with 2 weeks' lag time (R2=0·119, P=0·010). The predicted HFMD consultation rates were also also well matched with the observed rates (Spearman's correlation coefficient=0·276, P=0·000) in 2005–2009. Sensitivity analysis showed that HFMD consultation rates were mostly affected by relative humidity and least affected by wind speed. Our model demonstrated that climate parameters help in predicting HFMD activity, which could assist in explaining the winter peak detected in recent years and in issuing early warning.

A case-control study was conducted in Linxian, Henan Province in China to explore potential risk factors for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection unassociated with injection drug use. One hundred and ninety-two persons (41·7% male, 95·8% aged >60 years) were recruited from an earlier cohort. Of these, 48 were HCV positive and 144 HCV negative. Residence in a plain region and 3–10 injections in a health setting per year were significantly associated with HCV in both univariate and multivariate analysis (P<0·01). In rural China, the geographic distribution of HCV infection was heterogeneous and associated with injections in a health setting, a pattern which differed from the epidemics in injection drug users in urban cities.

The aim of this study was to quantify the association between alcohol consumption and incidence of pneumonia and to examine possible pathways. This was done by a systematic review and meta-analyses on the dose–response relationship between alcohol consumption or alcohol-use disorders and the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). The relative risk (RR) of CAP increased monotonically with increasing alcohol consumption. Individuals consuming 24, 60, and 120 g of pure alcohol daily demonstrated RRs for incident CAP of 1·12 (95% CI 1·02–1·23), 1·33 (95% CI 1·06–1·67) and 1·76 (95% CI 1·13–2·77), respectively, relative to non-drinkers. Clinically defined alcohol-use disorders were associated with an eightfold increased risk of CAP (RR 8·22, 95% CI 4·85–13·95). In conclusion, alcohol was found to be a risk factor for pneumonia with a clear statistical association, and a monotonic dose–response relationship.

Using time-series analysis, we investigated the monthly cholera incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh during an 18-year period for its relationship to the sea surface temperature (SST) linked to El Niño, and to the sunspot number. Dominant periodic modes identified for cholera incidence were 11·0, 4·8, 3·5, 2·9, 1·6, 1·0 and 0·5 years. The majority of these modes, e.g. the 11·0-, 4·8-, 3·5-, 1·6- and 1·0-year modes, were essentially consistent with those obtained for the SST data (dominant modes: 5·1, 3·7, 2·5, 2·1, 1·5, 1·0 years) and the sunspot number data (dominant modes: 22·1, 11·1, 7·3, 4·8, 3·1 years). We confirmed that the variations of cholera incidence were synchronous with SSTs, and were inversely correlated to the sunspot numbers. These results suggest that the cholera incidence in Bangladesh may have been influenced by the occurrence of El Niño and also by the periodic change of solar activity.

Post-infectious irritable bowel syndrome (PI-IBS) has been established as a sequel of infectious intestinal disease (IID). The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of PI-IBS caused by the pathogens Campylobacter, Salmonella and Shigella, and to compare this with other outcomes associated with these pathogens. The attributable risk of PI-IBS due to bacterial pathogens was calculated and linked to national data on gastroenteritis incidence and measures for severity and duration of illness in order to estimate the burden of PI-IBS. One year post-infection, IBS developed in 9% of patients with bacterial IID. The burden of PI-IBS adds over 2300 disability adjusted life years to the total annual disease burden for the selected pathogens. PI-IBS is a frequent sequel of IID, resulting in a considerable disease burden compared to other outcomes. If this relationship is not considered, this will result in an underestimation of the disease burden of IID.

In Uganda, limiting the extent of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) spread during outbreaks involves short-term measures such as ring vaccination and restrictions of the movement of livestock and their products to and from the affected areas. In this study, the presence of FMD virus RNA was investigated in cattle samples 3 months after FMD quarantine measures had been lifted following an outbreak in 2004. Oropharyngeal tissue samples were obtained from 12 cattle slaughtered in a small town abattoir in Kiboga. FMD virus RNA was detected by diagnostic RT–PCR in nine of the 12 tissue samples. Part of the coding region for the capsid protein VP1 was amplified and sequenced. All samples were identified as belonging to the SAT 2 serotype. The implications for FMD control of both virus introduction into Uganda and the presence of carrier animals following outbreaks are discussed.

Injection drug users (IDUs) have an elevated risk for carriage of Staphylococcus aureus, including methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). Cutaneous injection-related infections are common in IDUs but detailed studies are few. Based on a subsample of 218 individuals from a community-recruited cohort of IDUs at a supervised injection facility, we investigated the microbiology and related antibiotic susceptibility profiles of isolates from 59 wounds. Twenty-seven percent of subjects had at least one wound and 25 (43%) were culture positive for S. aureus alone [14 MRSA and 11 (19%) methicillin-susceptible (MSSA) isolates]. Sixteen of 18 MRSA isolates were classified as community associated (CA) by the presence of genes encoding for PVL. MRSA and MSSA occurred in mixed infection with other organisms on three and six occasions, respectively. All CA-MRSA isolates were susceptible to tetracycline, vancomycin and linezolid but only 13% were susceptible to clindamycin compared to 63% of MSSA isolates. The frequency of CA-MRSA is a cause for concern in wound infection in the IDU setting.

Clostridium difficile and staphylococcal infections are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Vitamin D deficiency may also contribute to increased healthcare costs. There is increasing evidence that vitamin D may have an antimicrobial role. We examined the relationship of serum 25(OH)D levels to staphylococcal and C. difficile infections to determine if vitamin D deficiency was associated with adverse outcomes. In the outpatient setting, vitamin D deficiency in patients with C. difficile and staphylococcal infections were associated with significantly increased total outpatients costs and fee-based consultation. Laboratory expenses had a trend towards higher costs in the vitamin D-deficient group but did not reach statistical significance. The differences were most clearly seen in the in-patient group with enhanced laboratory, pharmacy and radiology costs. These differences resulted in vitamin D-deficient patients with C. difficile or staphylococcal infections having costs more than five times higher than the non-deficient patients. The total length of hospital stay was four times greater in the vitamin D-deficient group. In addition, the total number of hospitalizations was also significantly greater in the vitamin D-deficient group. Surgery costs demonstrated a tendency to be higher in the vitamin D-deficient group but failed to reach statistical significance. Vitamin D deficiency is intimately linked to adverse health outcomes and costs in Veterans with staphylococcal and C. difficile infections in North East Tennessee. We recommend that vitamin D status be checked in patients with these infections and appropriate therapy be instituted to restore vitamin D level to normal in an expeditious manner.

In France, surveillance of bronchiolitis is based on a pilot network of hospital emergency departments. The study was a 1-year observational study (2007–2008) carried out in a central region of metropolitan France. The hospitalization rate for bronchiolitis was 17·7/1000 children aged <1 year and the estimated prevalence of bronchiolitis ranged from 17·7% to 34·4% in children aged <1 year. Such a network constitutes a valuable tool to estimate the dynamic and the burden of infant bronchiolitis.

As the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic (H1N1) has shown, public health decision-makers may have to predict the subsequent course and severity of a pandemic. We developed an agent-based simulation model and used data from the state of Georgia to explore the influence of viral mutation and seasonal effects on the course of an influenza pandemic. We showed that when a pandemic begins in April certain conditions can lead to a second wave in autumn (e.g. the degree of seasonality exceeding 0·30, or the daily rate of immunity loss exceeding 1% per day). Moreover, certain combinations of seasonality and mutation variables reproduced three-wave epidemic curves. Our results may offer insights to public health officials on how to predict the subsequent course of an epidemic or pandemic based on early and emerging viral and epidemic characteristics and what data may be important to gather.

The zoonotic risk of Brucella canis has been considered fairly high for persons who handle breeding dogs in kennels or are exposed to infected animals. Transmission to humans in other circumstances has been thought to be rare. We describe an uncommon outbreak of brucellosis caused by B. canis which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first reported in the literature. This outbreak involved six persons (three children and three adults), a bitch and three puppies which had close daily contact with the family. The clinical symptoms of the index case led to an erroneous diagnosis and the infection would have gone undiagnosed if culture had not been positive. This report aims to increase awareness of medical personnel of the need to order screening tests for children, immunodeficient persons or pregnant women presenting with fever of unknown origin, unexplained spleen or liver enlargement or other systemic signs. The emerging zoonotic potential of this disease in urban areas and the need to coordinate canine brucellosis surveillance systems should be evaluated.

Although many studies have investigated bacteria on the hands of health-care workers and caregivers, few have looked at microbiological contamination on the hands of the general adult public. This study investigated faecal bacteria on the hands of commuters in five UK cities. Of the 404 people sampled 28% were found to have bacteria of faecal origin on their hands. A breakdown by city showed that the proportion of people with contaminated hands increased the further north the city of investigation (P<0·001), an effect which was due in large part to a significant trend in men but not in women. Bus users were more contaminated than train users. The results of this exploratory study indicate that hand hygiene practices in the UK may be inadequate and that faecal indicator bacteria on hands may be used to monitor the effect of hand-washing promotion campaigns.