A mathematical model for the epidemiology of rinderpest was developed, starting from a simplified descriptive analysis of the disease. A formula for the calculation of the probability of infection of a susceptible animal was first established. A deterministic failure threshold of the infection was then deduced. Deterministic and stochastic approaches were adopted using iterative methods on a computer. These allowed a description of the spread and the variability of an infection process in a population to be made. An illustration of the use of this model showed that, in some cases, variability effects due to stochastic factors were very important. In these particular conditions, the use of the deterministic model alone was not adequate for a good description of the infection. Consequently, improvements of the model were proposed in order to make it more realistic and to allow its use for the evaluation of the efficiency of field operations.

Rates of acquisition and loss of Brugia malayi microfilaraemia were estimated using the parasitological data of a cohort of population in Shertallai, South India. The rate of acquisition of microfilaraemia was found to be dependent on age but not gender. The decline in the rate of acquisition of microfilaraemia in adults above 35 years could be due to the development of acquired immunity. The mean reproductive lifespan for the periodic Brugia malayi adult female worm was estimated to be 34 years and it was independent of host age and gender. The age-specific estimated proportion of population at risk (microfilaria carriers who lost their microfilaria in course of time) of developing lymphoedema approximately mirrored the observed age specific prevalence of lymphoedema in the study-population. On an average, 99% of population at risk developed manifestations of disease. The estimated population at risk of developing disease in different endemic areas is compared and its epidemiological significance is discussed.