The global incidence of Shigella infection has been estimated at 80–165 million episodes annually, with 99% of episodes occurring in the developing world. To identify contemporary gaps in the understanding of the global epidemiology of shigellosis, we conducted a review of the English-language scientific literature from 1984 to 2005, restricting the search to low and medium human development countries. Our review yielded 11 population-based studies of Shigella burden from seven countries. No population-based studies have been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa or in low human development countries. In studies done in all age groups, Shigella incidence varied from 0·6 to 107 episodes/1000 person-years. S. flexneri was the most commonly detected subgroup in the majority of studies. Case-fatality rates ranged from 0% to 2·6% in population-based studies and from 0% to 21% in facility-based studies. This review highlights the large gaps in data on the burden of Shigella infections for low human development index countries and, more specifically, for sub-Saharan Africa.

A compartmental, age-structured mathematical model was developed and recent US pertussis epidemiology data were used to evaluate the impact on pertussis infection rates of routine and targeted adult immunization strategies. Model simulations predict that the implementation of adolescent immunization only could reverse the current rise in pertussis infection rates but may lead to a resurgence of pertussis in subsequent decades. In contrast, inclusion of a routine adult strategy is likely to lead to sustained control of pertussis. Routine adult vaccination could control the disease even with relatively low coverage rates of 40% for routine vaccination of all adults every 10 years, or 65% for a targeted vaccination of close contacts of newborns completed by one booster dose for all adults. The model also predicts that the optimal age for this booster dose is 40 years. These results support the 2006 American Academy of Immunization Practices' recommendations for adolescent and adult vaccination against pertussis.

We undertook a 5-year retrospective study of group A streptococcal (GAS) bacteraemia in Fiji, supplemented by a 9-month detailed retrospective study of β-haemolytic streptococcal (BHS) infections. The all-age incidence of GAS bacteraemia over 5 years was 11·6/100 000. Indigenous Fijians were 4·7 times more likely to present with invasive BHS disease than people of other ethnicities, and 6·4 times more likely than Indo-Fijians. The case-fatality rate for invasive BHS infections was 28%. emm-typing was performed on 23 isolates: 17 different emm-types were found, and the emm-type profile was different from that found in industrialized nations. These data support the contentions that elevated rates of invasive BHS and GAS infections are widespread in developing countries, and that the profile of invasive organisms in these settings reflects a wide diversity of emm-types and a paucity of types typically found in industrialized countries.

Truncated models are indirect methods to estimate the size of a hidden population which, in contrast to the capture–recapture method, can be used on a single information source. We estimated the coverage of a tuberculosis screening programme among illicit drug users and homeless persons with a mobile digital X-ray unit between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2005 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, using truncated models. The screening programme reached about two-third of the estimated target population at least once annually. The intended coverage (at least two chest X-rays per person per year) was about 23%. We conclude that simple truncated models can be used relatively easily on available single-source routine data to estimate the size of a population of illicit drug users and homeless persons. We assumed that the most likely overall bias in this study would be overestimation and therefore the coverage of the targeted mobile tuberculosis screening programme would be higher.

Mycobacteria from lymph node biopsies of patients with cervical lymphadenitis reporting for tuberculosis treatment in Matany and Moroto Hospitals in the transhumant areas of Karamoja, Uganda were isolated and characterized. The AccuProbe® culture identification kits for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC), M. avium complex (MAC) and M. avium were used to identify the isolates. Spoligotyping, IS901 PCR and IS1311 and IS1245 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) were used to characterize the isolates. Of the 43 biopsies, ten M. avium, seven M. tuberculosis, three M. bovis, and two M. intracellulare were isolated. Two isolates could not be identified with AccuProbe® and from 19 samples no mycobacteria could be isolated. Three isolates with the Beijing spoligotype were identified from the seven M. tuberculosis isolates. The spoligopatterns of the M. bovis isolates had previously been detected in cattle in Uganda. Isolation of members of the MAC group reflects the complex interaction between the transhumant communities, water sources and their cattle. None of the M. avium isolates harboured IS901, and all showed several bands on IS1311 and IS1245 RFLP, in accordance with M. avium subsp. hominissuis. Composite dendrograms of IS1311 and IS1245 RFLP showed that the isolates were similar and identical patterns were found. The isolation of M. bovis confirms the human infection with zoonotic mycobacteria in areas where consumption of raw milk and meat is routine. Isolation of environmental mycobacteria also confirms their increasing role in human disease and the occupational risk of infection in the transhumant ecosystem in the absence of safe drinking water and environmental contamination.

This study aimed to: (1) investigate whether non-ruminant wildlife interfacing with dairy sheep and goats of four Greek flocks endemically infected with Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) harboured MAP and (2) genetically compare the strains isolated from the wildlife to those isolated from the small ruminants of these flocks. We cultured and screened, by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), pooled-tissue samples from 327 wild animals of 11 species for the MAP-specific IS900 insertion sequence. We also cultured faecal samples from 100 sheep or goats from each of the four flocks. MAP was detected in samples from 11 sheep, 12 goats, two mice, two rats, a hare and a fox. Only one rat had histopathological findings. Genetic typing categorized 21 isolates as cattle-type strains and two, from a house mouse and a goat respectively, as sheep-type strains; this is the first report of a rodent harbouring a sheep-type strain. The MAP types that were most frequently isolated amongst the sheep and goats of each flock were also the ones isolated from sympatric rodents; those isolated from the fox and hare also belonged to the predominant ruminant strains.

Vertebral osteomyelitis (VO) is a rare event. To estimate the incidence of VO in France for 2002–2003, national hospital-discharge data were used. Hospital stays were categorized as definite, probable or possible VO. Unique patient identification numbers allowed the investigators to link patients with multiple hospital stays and to analyse data for individual patients. A sample of medical records was reviewed to assess the specificity of the VO case definition. In 2002–2003, 1977 and 2036 hospital stays corresponding to 1422 and 1425 patients (median age 59 years, male:female ratio 1·5) were classified as definite (64%), probable (24%) and possible (12%) VO. The overall incidence of VO was 2·4/100 000. Incidence increased with age: 0·3/100 000 (<20 years), 3·5/100 000 (50–70 years) and 6·5/100 000 (>70 years). The main infectious agents reported were Staphylococcus spp. (38%) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (31%). The most frequent comorbidities were septicaemia (27%) and endocarditis (9%). Three percent of patients died. A review of 90 medical records confirmed the diagnosis of VO in 94% of cases. Using a hospital database and a specific case definition, nationwide surveillance of VO is possible.

In this study, we have analysed the epidemiological significance of the concurrent infections caused by Vibrio cholerae and intestinal parasites among different age groups of hospitalized diarrhoeal patients in Kolkata. A total of 3556 stool samples collected during 1996–2004 were screened for vibrios and parasites. The seasonality of V. cholerae and parasitic infections were studied in detail. The detection rates for Ascaris lumbricoides and Giardia lamblia infection were more than for the hookworm, Trichuris trichiura and Entamoeba histolytica. V. cholerae O1 was identified as the predominant serogroup among diarrhoeal patients. The highest rates for V. cholerae infection were in the 2–5 years age group and combined infection of V. cholerae and parasites was recorded among children aged between 2 and 10 years.

Understanding the epidemiology of current health threats to deployed U.S. troops is important for medical assessment and planning. As part of a 2004 study among U.S. military personnel deployed to Al Asad Air Base, in the western Anbar Province of Iraq, over 500 subjects were enrolled, provided a blood specimen, and completed a questionnaire regarding history of febrile illness during this deployment (average ∼4 months in country). This mid-deployment serum was compared to pre-deployment samples (collected ∼3 months prior to deployment) and evaluated for seroconversion to a select panel of regional arboviral pathogens. At least one episode of febrile illness was reported in 84/504 (17%) of the troops surveyed. Seroconversion was documented in nine (2%) of deployed forces tested, with no association to febrile illness. Self-reported febrile illness was uncommon although often debilitating, and the risk of illness due to arbovirus infections was relatively low.

Lyssaviruses cause acute, progressive encephalitis in mammals. Current rabies vaccines offer protection against the lyssaviruses, with the notable exceptions of Mokola virus (MOKV), Lagos bat virus (LBV) and West Caucasian bat virus (WCBV). Here we describe the cross-protective and cross-reactive immune responses induced by experimental recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding the glycoprotein genes of rabies virus (RABV), MOKV and WCBV, either singly or in dual combinations. Constructs expressing a single glycoprotein gene protected mice against lethal intracranial challenge with homologous virus. Similarly, recombinants expressing glycoprotein genes from two different lyssaviruses offered mice protection against both homologous viruses. VNAb induced by vaccines that included a MOKV glycoprotein gene cross-neutralized LBV, but not WCBV. We concluded that a single recombinant poxvirus-vectored vaccine including MOKV and RABV glycoprotein genes, should be a major addition to available rabies biologics and should offer broad protection against all of the lyssaviruses, except WCBV.

Deterministic SIR models were applied to simulate Susceptible–Infected–Removed and to estimate the threshold condition for varicella outbreaks in children, reported in Medellín, Colombia. The expected numbers of susceptible, infected and removed individuals were compared with observed cases from notification of varicella outbreaks to the local Board of Health and from survey data. The threshold condition was estimated by the basic reproductive ratio and by the relative removal rate, through which measures for preventing and curtailing the outbreaks were identified. The model demonstrated a reasonable fit to the observations, except in two of the six outbreaks which probably reflected under-registration of cases. In order to have prevented these outbreaks, between 4·4% and 52·9% of the susceptible population should have been vaccinated assuming an 85% vaccine effectiveness. Similarly, isolation of affected children should have been increased to between 4·3% and 44·8% per week.

We examined the prevalence of mumps antibodies in the Israeli population in relation to mumps vaccination policy and past and subsequent incidence of disease. The levels of specific IgG antibodies against mumps were tested in 3330 residual sera collected during 1997–1998 from an age-stratified population sample. Against the background of a consistent MMR vaccination coverage of >90%, the age- and sex-adjusted seropositivity to mumps was 77·0%. No significant differences between genders were found. Seropositivity in the 10–13 years age group, born just before the introduction of the MMR vaccine, was the lowest (59%). These birth cohorts were the target of an outbreak of mumps in 2005 that occurred among high-school students and military recruits. A trend of waning immunity was observed between the first and second vaccine doses. The seroepidemiological data demonstrate that immunity levels below the herd immunity threshold, along with social mixing and crowded conditions facilitated the occurrence of mumps outbreaks. Periodical serosurveys are an essential component in the evaluation of the vaccination policy against mumps.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemiology among residents of a rural agricultural plantation in Kericho, Kenya was studied. HIV-1 prevalence was 14·3%, and was higher among women (19·1%) than men (11·3%). Risk factors associated with HIV-1 for men were age (⩾25 years), marital history (one or more marriages), age difference from current spouse (⩾5 years), Luo ethnicity, sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms in the past 6 months, circumcision (protective), and sexual activity (⩾7 years). Among women, risk factors associated with HIV-1 were age (25–29 years, ⩾35 years), marital history (one or more marriages), age difference from current spouse (⩾10 years), Luo ethnicity, STI symptoms in the past 6 months, and a STI history in the past 5 years. Most participants (96%) expressed a willingness to participate in a future HIV vaccine study. These findings will facilitate targeted intervention and prevention measures for HIV-1 infection in Kericho.

Surveillance activities for ovine scrapie have expanded in the 21st century, following concerns about the potential for a hidden epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in European sheep populations. Large-scale surveys have been used to estimate the prevalence of scrapie infection. In this study we analyse data from the surveys in Great Britain between 2002 and 2004. When we estimate genotype-specific prevalences for each of the two screening tests used a difference is observed. One test underestimates the number of positive cases in genotypes classically considered to be at a low relative risk of developing clinical disease (ARR- and AHQ-containing genotypes). By comparison, the other test underestimates the number of positive cases in genotypes classically considered to be at an increased relative risk of developing clinical disease (VRQ-containing genotypes). These findings have implications for surveillance, disease control, and diagnostic test evaluation.

Spatial–temporal patterns of measles incidence reflect the spatial distribution of human hosts. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of communities has been shown to introduce spatially dependent temporal lags in the timing of measles incidence. Incidence patterns reflect internal dynamics within a community and coupling of communities through the movement of infectious individuals. The central role of human movement in coupling dynamics in separate communities suggests that physical geographic barriers to movement should reduce spatial–temporal correlation. We examine measles dynamics in Maryland and Pennsylvania during the period of 1917–1938. The central feature of interest is the Chesapeake Bay, which separates Maryland into two distinct regions. We find that correlation of measles incidences in communities separated by the bay is reduced compared to communities not separated by the bay, suggesting the bay acted as a barrier to human movement during this time sufficient to decouple measles dynamics in Maryland counties.