Infectious diseases remain one of the leading causes of death worldwide. The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyse the trends in mortality from infectious diseases in Serbia (excluding the Autonomous Province of Kosovo & Metohia) from 1991 to 2014 using joinpoint regression analysis. The mortality rates from infectious diseases were found to have increased markedly from 1991 to 1994 (+12·4% per year), followed by a significant decline from 1994 to 2009 (–4·6% per year) and then another increase from 2009 to 2014 (+4·3% per year). Throughout the study period, mortality rates were consistently higher in men than in women. Although a substantial decline was observed for young people of both sexes, no consistent pattern was evident for the middle-aged nor the elderly. Since 1991, septicaemia has emerged as a leading cause of infectious disease mortality, particularly in older men. The Yugoslav civil wars in the 1990s and the global financial crisis in 2008 corresponded with changes in the trends in mortality from infectious diseases in Serbia, with the elderly showing particular vulnerability during those time periods. Data presented in this study might be useful to improve control of infectious diseases in Serbia.

We present and analyse data collected during a severe epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) that occurred between July and September 2000 in a region of northeastern Greece with strategic importance since it represents the southeastern border of Europe and Asia. We implement generic Bayesian methodology, which offers flexibility in the ability to fit several realistically complex models that simultaneously capture the presence of ‘excess’ zeros, the spatio-temporal dependence of the cases, assesses the impact of environmental noise and controls for multicollinearity issues. Our findings suggest that the epidemic was mostly driven by the size and the animal type of each farm as well as the distance between farms while environmental and other endemic factors were not important during this outbreak. Analyses of this kind may prove useful to informing decisions related to optimal control measures for potential future FMD outbreaks as well as other acute epidemics such as FMD.

Fifteen confirmed cases and 15 possible cases of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 phage type 21/28 were linked to direct contact with lambs at a ‘Lambing Live’ event in the North West of England between 29 March and 21 April 2014. Twenty-one (70%) of the cases were female, 23 (77%) were children aged <16 years, of whom 14 (46%) were in the 0–5 years age group. Five children developed haemolytic uraemic syndrome. Multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) profiles on 14 human cases were indistinguishable, and 6/10 animal isolates had a MLVA profile identical to the outbreak profile. Whole-genome sequencing analysis revealed that all isolates, both human and animal, fell within a 5-single nucleotide polymorphism cluster indicating the isolates belonged to the same point source. On inspection of the premises, extensive and uncontrolled physical contact between visitors and animals was occuring within the animal pens and during bottle-feeding. Public areas were visibly contaminated with animal faeces. Information to visitors, and the infection control awareness demonstrated by staff, was inadequate. Managing the risk to visitors of STEC O157 infection at animal petting events and open farms requires implementation of stringent control measures by the operator, as outlined in the industry code of practice. Enforcement action is sometimes required to prevent high-risk activities taking place at both permanent and temporary attractions.

A cross-sectional survey was carried out in Bangladesh with the sampling of 514 Black Bengal goats on smallholdings to determine the presence of sorbitol non-fermenting (SNF) Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC). Swab samples collected from the recto-anal junction were plated onto cefixime and potassium tellurite added sorbitol MacConkey (CT-SMAC) agar, a selective medium for STEC O157 serogroup, where this serogroup and other SNF STEC produce colourless colonies. The SNF E. coli (SNF EC) isolates obtained from the survey were investigated by PCR for the presence of Shiga toxin-producing genes, stx1 and stx2, and two other virulence genes, eae and hlyA that code for adherence factor (intimin protein) and pore-forming cytolysin, respectively. The SNF EC isolates were also assessed for the presence of the rfbO157 gene to verify their identity to O157 serogroup. The results revealed that the proportions of goats carrying SNF EC isolates and stx1 and stx2 genes were 6·2% (32/514) [95% confidence interval (CI) 4·4–8·7)], 1·2% (95% CI 0·5–2·6) and 1·2% (95% CI 0·5–2·6), respectively. All the SNF STEC tested negative for rfbO157, hlyA and eae genes. The risk for transmission of STEC from Black Bengal goats to humans is low.

Over 10% of acute rotavirus gastroenteritis (ARGE) requires hospitalization because of complications. The aggravating factors have been widely analysed, but in an isolated way. We aimed to explore the interrelationship between the clinical and epidemiological factors that characterize rotavirus hospitalizations in Spain using information from the Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS). Using ICD-9-CM codes, we classified acute gastroenteritis (AGE) cases by principal diagnosis fields and then categorized their comorbidities, complications, and epidemiological features by secondary fields. A multivariable, logistic, step-wise regression model was then constructed. We identified 1657 ARGE cases from 17 415 cases of AGE. Rotavirus hospitalizations were associated with place of residence, age, and season (P < 0·0001), as well as with dehydration [odds ratio (OR) 12·44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·52–40·38], intravenous rehydration (OR 1·74, 95% CI 1·29–2·35), metabolic acidosis (OR 1·51, 95% CI 1·24–1·83), respiratory tract infections (RTIs) (OR 1·60, 95% CI 1·09–1·98), and concomitant AGE (OR 1·52, 95% CI 1·03–2·25). Dehydration was four times more likely in patients aged <5 years (OR 4·36, 95% CI 1·20–12·96) and was associated with acidosis when ARGE and RTI were present simultaneously (P < 0·0001). Specific co-infecting viruses may play a role in acute respiratory symptoms and aggravation of gastrointestinal manifestations of rotaviruses, thus leading to complications requiring hospitalization.

Limited information is available on the incidence of Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) in Italian hospitals. In this study, we assessed the changes in the incidence of CDI over a 5-year period in a teaching hospital in Liguria, the Italian region with the oldest population. Secondary endpoints were the development of severe CDI and 30-day mortality. The annual incidence of CDI/10000 patient-days significantly increased from 0·54 in 2010 to 3·04 in 2014 (χ2 for trend, P < 0·001). The median age of patients with CDI was 81 years. As many as 81% and 89% of these patients had comorbid conditions and previous exposure to antibiotics, respectively. In the multivariate analysis of risk factors for severe CDI, previous therapy with histamine 2 blockers and low serum albumin were associated with severe CDI, while diabetes appeared to be protective. In the multivariate model of risk factors for 30-day mortality, high leukocyte count, low serum albumin, and increased serum creatinine were unfavourably associated with outcome. Strict adherence to infection control measures was of utmost importance to counteract the increasing incidence of CDI in our hospital, particularly because of the advanced age of the patients and their very high frequency of chronic conditions and use of antibiotics, which readily predispose them to the development of CDI.

Insights into transmission dynamics of enteropathogens in children attending daycare are limited. Here we aimed at identifying daycare centre (DCC) characteristics associated with time-clustered occurrence of enteropathogens in DCC-attending children. For this purpose, we used the KIzSS network, which comprises 43 DCCs that participated in infectious disease surveillance in The Netherlands during February 2010–February 2013. Space–time scan statistics were used to identify clusters of rotavirus, norovirus, astrovirus, Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium spp. in a two-dimensional DCC characteristic space constructed using canonical correlation analysis. Logistic regression models were then used to further identify DCC characteristics associated with increased or decreased odds for clustering of enteropathogens. Factors associated with increased odds for enteropathogen clustering in DCCs were having indoor/outdoor paddling pools or sandpits, owning animals, high numbers of attending children, and reporting outbreaks to local health authorities. Factors associated with decreased odds for enteropathogen clustering in DCCs were cleaning child potties in designated waste disposal stations, cleaning vomit with chlorine-based products, daily cleaning of toys, extra cleaning of toys during a suspected outbreak, and excluding children with gastroenteritis. These factors provide targets for reducing the burden of gastrointestinal morbidity associated with time-clustered occurrence of major enteropathogens in DCC attendees.

Prevalence of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) and use of daptomycin are increasing in Asia. To determine the prevalence of daptomycin non-susceptible enterococci (DNSE) and understand factors associated with reduced daptomycin susceptibility in VRE, we conducted a case-control study in a 1600-bed adult tertiary hospital in Singapore. All VRE isolates from inpatients in 2012 were tested for daptomycin susceptibility. Patients with VRE isolates of daptomycin minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) ⩾3 µg/ml were classified as daptomycin-reduced susceptible VRE (DRS-VRE) and those with daptomycin MIC <3 µg/ml classified as daptomycin-susceptible VRE (DS-VRE). Medical records were reviewed for clinical and epidemiological data. None of 243 VRE isolates had MIC >4 µg/ml (DNSE). About half (135, 55%) had reduced susceptibility to daptomycin (MIC 3–4 µg/ml). None in the DS-VRE group had prior exposure to daptomycin. After adjusting for age, gender, comorbidity, hospitalization duration, surgical history, indwelling device use, and duration of antibiotic exposure in the prior 3 months, >1 movement between wards [odds ratio (OR) 0·35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·16–0·74, P = 0·006] and minocycline resistance (OR 0·45, 95% CI 0·25–0·84, P = 0·011) were independently associated with DRS-VRE. Our study suggests that daptomycin exposure, >1 movement between wards, and resistance to minocycline, were associated with reduced daptomycin susceptibility in VRE.

This study investigated the incidence and risk to staff groups for sustaining needlestick injuries (NSIs) in the National University Hospital (NUH), Singapore. A retrospective cohort review of incident NSI cases was undertaken to determine the injury rate, causation, and epidemiological profile of such injuries. Analysis of the risk of sustaining recurrent NSI by occupation and location was done using the Cox proportional hazards model. There were 244 NSI cases in 5957 employees in NUH in 2014, giving an incidence rate of 4·1/100 healthcare workers (HCWs) per year. The incidence rate was highest for doctors at 21·3, and 2·7 for nurses; 40·6% of injuries occurred in wards, and 32·8% in operating theatres. There were 27 cases of repeated NSI cases. The estimated cost due to NSIs in NUH ranged from US$ 109 800 to US$ 563 152 in 2014. We conclude that creating a workplace environment where top priority is given to prevention of NSIs in HCWs, is essential to address the high incidence of reported NSIs. The data collected will be of value to inform the design of prevention programmes to reduce further the risk of NSIs in HCWs.

Gastrointestinal and respiratory infections in children attending daycare centres (DCCs) are common and compliance with hand hygiene (HH) guidelines to prevent infections is generally low. An intervention was developed to increase HH compliance and reduce infections in DCCs. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the effectiveness of this intervention on HH compliance. The intervention was evaluated in a two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial in 71 DCCs in The Netherlands. Thirty-six DCCs received the intervention including: (1) HH products; (2) training about HH guidelines; (3) two team training sessions aimed at goal setting and formulating HH improvement activities; and (4) reminders and cues for action (posters/stickers). Intervention DCCs were compared to 35 control DCCs that continued usual practice. HH compliance of caregivers and children was observed at baseline and at 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up. Using multilevel logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained for the intervention effect. Of 795 caregivers, 5042 HH opportunities for caregivers and 5606 opportunities for supervising children's HH were observed. At 1 month follow-up caregivers' compliance in intervention DCCs was 66% vs. 43% in control DCCs (OR 6·33, 95% CI 3·71–10·80), and at 6 months 59% vs. 44% (OR 4·13, 95% CI 2·33–7·32). No effect of the intervention was found on supervising children's HH (36% vs. 32%; OR 0·64, 95% CI 0·18–2·33). In conclusion, HH compliance of caregivers increased due to the intervention, therefore dissemination of the intervention can be considered.

Norovirus (NoV) epidemics normally peak in December in Japan; however, the peak in the 2009–2010 season was delayed until the fourth week of January 2010. We suspected intensive hand hygiene that was conducted for a previous pandemic influenza in 2009 as the cause of this delay. We analysed the NoV epidemic trend, based on national surveillance data, and its associations with monthly output data for hand hygiene products, including alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap. The delayed peak in the NoV incidence in the 2009–2010 season had the lowest number of recorded cases of the five seasons studied (2006–2007 to 2010–2011). GII.4 was the most commonly occurring genotype. The monthly relative risk of NoV and monthly output of both alcohol-based skin antiseptics and hand soap were significantly and negatively correlated. Our findings suggest an association between hand hygiene using these products and prevention of NoV transmission.

The aim of this study was to contribute to the better understanding of the relative epidemiological importance of different modes of infection with respect to horizontal transmission of Toxoplasma gondii in endemic settings. We investigated the prevalence of salivary IgA against a sporozoite-specific embryogenesis-related protein (TgERP) in a highly endemic area for toxoplasmosis in Brazil in order to pinpoint parasite transmission via oocysts. Prevalence calculated by salivary IgA specific to TgERP was compared to the prevalence calculated by serum IgG against both TgERP and tachyzoites (in conventional serological tests). Prevalence calculated by different serological and salivary parameters varied in the studied age groups. However, for the 15–21 years age group, values for T. gondii prevalence estimated by conventional serological tests and by anti-TgERP salivary IgA were similar; i.e. 68·7% and 66·6% or 66·7%, respectively, using two different cut-off parameters for salivary IgA anti-TgERP. Furthermore, salivary IgA anti-TgERP for this age group presented the highest specificity (93·33%), sensitivity (93·94%), and likelihood (14·09) compared to all the other age groups. These data demonstrate the importance of age for salivary IgA investigation against TgERP to estimate the mode of T. gondii transmission in endemic settings.

Chlamydiae are frequently encountered intracellular Gram-negative bacteria. In pigs, these bacteria in combination with other pathogens contribute to the induction of a multi-aetiological syndrome. One of the major characteristics of Chlamydia spp. is their ability to cause prolonged, often subclinical infections. While the economic consequences of Chlamydia spp. infections in pig farms are not fully established, we know that reproductive disorders and other syndromes correlated with Chlamydia infection can lead to financial loss as a result of a reduction in pork production. Additionally, Chlamydia spp. presents a potential zoonotic hazard, therefore determining the prevalence of Chlamydia in pig populations is critical. In the present study 97 pig herds from Poland were involved. To determine the prevalence of Chlamydia PCR and CFT tests were used. In total 797 vaginal samples, 797 conjunctival samples, and 235 serum samples were collected and tested. The study took place from 2011 to 2014. We found Chlamydia spp. present in 71·2% of all tested farms. The percentage of animals testing positive on any given farm varied from 20% to 100%.

Repeat rectal chlamydia infection is common in men who have sex with men (MSM) following treatment with 1 g azithromycin. This study describes the association between organism load and repeat rectal chlamydia infection, genovar distribution, and efficacy of azithromycin in asymptomatic MSM. Stored rectal chlamydia-positive samples from MSM were analysed for organism load and genotyped to assist differentiation between reinfection and treatment failure. Included men had follow-up tests within 100 days of index infection. Lymphogranuloma venereum and proctitis diagnosed symptomatically were excluded. Factors associated with repeat infection, treatment failure and reinfection were investigated. In total, 227 MSM were included – 64 with repeat infections [28·2%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 22·4–34·5]. Repeat positivity was associated with increased pre-treatment organism load [odds ratio (OR) 1·7, 95% CI 1·4–2·2]. Of 64 repeat infections, 29 (12·8%, 95% CI 8·7–17·8) were treatment failures and 35 (15·4%, 95% CI 11·0–20·8) were reinfections, 11 (17·2%, 95% CI 8·9–28·7) of which were definite reinfections. Treatment failure and reinfection were both associated with increased load (OR 2·0, 95% CI 1·4–2·7 and 1·6, 95% CI 1·2–2·2, respectively). The most prevalent genovars were G, D and J. Treatment efficacy for 1 g azithromycin was 83·6% (95% CI 77·2–88·8). Repeat positivity was associated with high pre-treatment organism load. Randomized controlled trials are urgently needed to evaluate azithromycin's efficacy and whether extended doses can overcome rectal infections with high organism load.

To examine evidence of positive antibodies against immunogenic proteins of Anaplasma phagocytophilum in patients with other tick-borne infections and to diagnose possible co-infections, 412 serum specimens were tested by immunoblotting using three specific Anaplasma antigens: surface proteins p44 and Asp62 and outer membrane protein A (OmpA). In total, 284 serum samples from children with Lyme borreliosis and 12 serum samples from children with tick-borne encephalitis were tested. Sera from patients with viral aseptic meningitis (n = 47) and from blood donors (n = 69) were used as controls. Among all serum specimens from patients with tick-borne infections submitted for this study, six samples (2·0%) showed positive IgM reactions and seven samples (2·4%) were IgG positive for A. phagocytophilum by immunoblot. Borderline reactivity was found in 30 samples (10·14%) for IgM and 36 samples (12·2%) for IgG. The difference between patients and blood donors was statistically significant for IgM (P = 0·006) and for IgG (P = 0·0007) antibodies. A statistically significant result was obtained for IgG (P = 0·02) but not for IgM between patients and children with aseptic meningitis. Immunoblot using three specific antigens provides novel information about the positivity of antibodies to A. phagocytophilum in children with other tick-borne infections. Taking into account clinical and laboratory findings of children despite antibody positivity, no case of human granulocytic anaplasmosis was demonstrated.

To evaluate measles incidence and its relevant changes over a 14-year period (2000–2014), we analysed data from the regional hospital discharge database on children and adults hospitalized in Tuscany, Italy. A total of 181 paediatric and 413 adult cases were identified. Despite all the efforts towards regional measles elimination, we observed that the overall measles hospitalization rates for children and adults living in Tuscany globally increased from 0·45 to 0·85/100 000 during the study period (P = 0·001) showing fluctuations due to periodic measles outbreaks. Data stratified by age group showed that the hospitalization rate significantly increased in young adults over the study period, confirming an increase in susceptibility to measles in this subpopulation. Conversely, no statistically significant difference was observed in the hospitalization rate in the other age groups. However, children aged <1 year still exhibit the highest hospitalization rate. Pneumonia represented the most common complication in both the adult and children subsets. No death was reported. Measles still represents a public health problem, and national strategies should be implemented, focusing on emergent susceptible subsets, such as infants and young adults.

At the end of 2013, China reported a countrywide outbreak of measles. From January to May 2014, we investigated the clinical and immunological features of the cases of the outbreak admitted to our hospital. In this study, all 112 inpatients with clinically diagnosed measles were recruited from the 302 Military Hospital of China. The virus was isolated from throat swabs from these patients, and cytokine profiles were examined. By detecting the measles virus of 30 of the 112 patients, we found that this measles outbreak was of the H1 genotype, which is the major strain in China. The rates of complications, specifically pneumonia and liver injury, differed significantly in patients aged <8 months, 8 months to 18 years, and >18 years: pneumonia was more common in children, while liver injury was more common in adults. Pneumonia was a significant independent risk factor affecting measles duration. Compared to healthy subjects, measles patients had fewer CD4+IL-17+, CD4+IFN-γ+, and CD8+IFN-γ+ cells in both the acute and recovery phases. In contrast, measles patients in the acute phase had more CD8+IL-22+ cells than those in recovery or healthy subjects. We recommend that future studies focus on the age-related distribution of pneumonia and liver injury as measles-related complications as well as the association between immunological markers and measles prognosis.

Epidemiologists agree that there is a prevailing seasonality in the presentation of epidemic waves of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and influenza. The aim of this study is to quantify the potential relationship between the activity of RSV, with respect to the influenza virus, in order to use the RSV seasonal curve as a predictor of the evolution of an influenza virus epidemic wave. Two statistical tools, logistic regression and time series, are used for predicting the evolution of influenza. Both logistic models and time series of influenza consider RSV information from previous weeks. Data consist of influenza and confirmed RSV cases reported in Comunitat Valenciana (Spain) during the period from week 40 (2010) to week 8 (2014). Binomial logistic regression models used to predict the two states of influenza wave, basal or peak, result in a rate of correct classification higher than 92% with the validation set. When a finer three-states categorization is established, basal, increasing peak and decreasing peak, the multinomial logistic model performs well in 88% of cases of the validation set. The ARMAX model fits well for influenza waves and shows good performance for short-term forecasts up to 3 weeks. The seasonal evolution of influenza virus can be predicted a minimum of 4 weeks in advance using logistic models based on RSV. It would be necessary to study more inter-pandemic seasons to establish a stronger relationship between the epidemic waves of both viruses.

Preliminary evidence suggests that direct poultry contact may play a lesser role in transmission of avian influenza A(H7N9) than A(H5N1) to humans. To better understand differences in risk factors, we quantified the degree of poultry contact reported by H5N1 and H7N9 World Health Organization-confirmed cases. We used publicly available data to classify cases by their degree of poultry contact, including direct and indirect. To account for potential data limitations, we used two methods: (1) case population method in which all cases were classified using a range of sources; and (2) case subset method in which only cases with detailed contact information from published research literature were classified. In the case population, detailed exposure information was unavailable for a large proportion of cases (H5N1, 54%; H7N9, 86%). In the case subset, direct contact proportions were higher in H5N1 cases (70·3%) than H7N9 cases (40·0%) (χ2 = 18·5, P < 0·001), and indirect contact proportions were higher in H7N9 cases (44·6%) than H5N1 cases (19·4%) (χ2 = 15·5, P < 0·001). Together with emerging evidence, our descriptive analysis suggests direct poultry contact is a clearer risk factor for H5N1 than for H7N9, and that other risk factors should also be considered for H7N9.

The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological profile of HPV oropharyngeal infections in HIV-infected men who have sex with men. A total of 135 subjects were enrolled at the L. Sacco University Hospital (Milan, Italy) to evaluate their HPV oropharyngeal infection status at baseline and at a follow-up visit at least 12 months later. HPV DNA was detected from oropharyngeal swabs using an in-house nested PCR that amplifies a segment of the L1 gene. The PCR products were then sequenced and genotyped. A greater percentage of high-risk genotypes was identified compared to low-risk genotypes (13·7% vs. 6·9%, P < 0·05), and two uncommon alpha-HPV genotypes were detected, i.e. HPV-102 and HPV-114. HPV infection prevalence was 24·4% and the cumulative incidence was 24·1%. During the follow-up period, one case of HPV infection (HPV-33) persisted, while the overall rate of infection clearance was 58·3%. HPV oropharyngeal infection was widespread in the cohort examined, and most of the infections were transient and cleared within 12 months. These results may help to clarify the role of HPV in the oropharynx and may also improve our understanding of the need to implement preventive strategies in at-risk populations.