Abstract. The results of the 2011 Canadian federal election were surprising. What accounts for the dramatic and largely unexpected shift in electoral fortunes? Most importantly, what accounts for the sudden leap in popularity of the New Democratic Party, particularly in Quebec? The aftermath of election day produced no lack of potential explanations. Pundits, politicians, and political scientists have suggested many. This paper examines the empirical validity of various explanations swirling about the 2011 election, especially regarding the “orange surge.” The analysis relies upon the 2011 Canadian Election Study and the content of news media coverage. It concludes that the most important factors behind the orange wave were the image gap between Jack Layton and the other party leaders, as well as the proximity between the NDP's values and issue positions and those of many Quebeckers.

Résumé. Le résultat de l'élection fédérale canadienne de 2011 a été surprenant. Comment expliquer les renversements dramatiques et largement inattendus dans les appuis aux partis politiques? Surtout, comment expliquer le bond soudain de popularité du Nouveau parti démocratique, particulièrement au Québec? Plusieurs explications potentielles ont été suggérées par les commentateurs, les politiciens et les politologues au lendemain de l'élection. Cet article examine la validité empirique de nombreuses explications entourant l'élection de 2011, notamment celles portant sur la « vague orange ». L'analyse repose sur l'Étude électorale canadienne de 2011 ainsi que sur le contenu de la couverture médiatique. Elle indique que les facteurs les plus importants à l'origine de la vague orange ont été l'écart entre l'image de Jack Layton et celle des autres chefs de partis, de même que la proximité entre le NPD et plusieurs Québécois quant aux valeurs et aux enjeux.

This article examines the contemporary basis of legitimate governance in Canada by identifying and documenting four different bases of political authority: state-centred, market-based, expert and popular authority. The co-existence of these competing bases of authority, traced to cultural shifts and developments associated with globalization, creates conflicting domestic and international norms of procedural and substantive legitimacy. The article argues that effective and legitimate governing in Canada requires greater incorporation of elements of popular authority, and reform, not abandonment, of state-centred authority.

This article presents a way of thinking about citizenship which incorporates theoretical elements of historical institutionalism and political economy. These provide the tools for identifying patterns of change in visions of the proper form of the triangular relationship among the state, the market and communities. These discourses, as well as the practices which result from it, are labelled the citizenship regime. The history of this concept is analyzed to account for some of the difficulties of contemporary Canada. There is now a double challenge. Increasingly, Quebec and the rest of Canada promote a different balance of responsibility among the state, market and communities. As well, neo-liberal efforts to reduce deficits and redesign government are challenging received ideas of solidarity. The result is that the pan-Canadian and Quebec's citizenship regimes are diverging.

The purpose of this study is to develop a procedure for estimating changes in the coefficients of an inter-industry input-output matrix. Every attempt to prolong the useful life of such a set of coefficients carries an obvious practical interest. We desire to find a procedure which does not call for large quantities of supplementary data, and which does not require more than a reasonable volume of calculations.

The method is applied to a sixteen-industry Canadian input-output matrix for the year 1949. This matrix is an aggregation of the forty-two-industry table published by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. The adjustment of the coefficients (i.e., their up-dating) is done for 1956. Thus, the objective of the study is to estimate the 1956 matrix of input coefficients.

Projections of the output of each of the sixteen industries for the years 1950–59 using the unadjusted 1949 matrix of input coefficients and estimates of the actual final demand for these years produce discrepancies between the projected outputs and estimates of actual output which quickly become too large to be tolerated. The projection errors for 1957–59 are shown in columns 3, 7, and 11 of Table I, where the 1949 matrix is referred to as matrix A. It is the fact that the quality of these projections deteriorates as one moves away from the base year that led us to examine various methods of up-dating the base-period coefficients. Although at first glance it may seem inappropriate to use a matrix for projections eight to ten years away from the year to which it refers, it should be kept in mind that input-output tables are frequently at least five years out of date by the time they are published. For example, it is unlikely that the table for 1961 presently being constructed by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics will be published before 1967.

Abstract. As compared with federal and provincial elections, municipal elections in Canada present voters with challenges of informational quantity and quality. These unique challenges have implications for the psychological structure of citizens' voting calculus. Using a survey of voters conducted after the city of Vancouver civic election of 2002, we estimate a model of vote choice for mayor. We show that voters respond to the different context in predictable ways: their choices are determined largely by ideological orientations and provincial partisanship, with local economic evaluations and local issues playing only a very small role.

Résumé. Si on les compare aux élections fédérales et provinciales, les élections municipales au Canada posent, pour les électeurs, des problèmes d'accès à une information de qualité en quantité suffisante. Ces défis particuliers ont un impact sur la structure psychologique de leurs stratégies de vote. Nous estimerons ici un modèle de choix d'un candidat au poste de maire à l'aide des données d'un sondage effectué après les élections municipales de Vancouver de 2002. Nous démontrerons que les électeurs répondent à ce contexte différent de manière prévisible : leurs choix sont déterminés principalement par leur orientation idéologique et leur soutien partisan au niveau provincial, alors que l'évaluation de l'état de l'économie locale et les questions de politique locale ne jouent qu'un rôle limité.

Now that the advent of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms has made the fact of judicial power so obvious, it is important to develop the conceptual vocabulary for describing and assessing this power. One such concept that has been applied to the study of United States and British appeal courts is the notion of “party capability theory,” which suggests that different types of litigant will enjoy different levels of success, as both appellant and respondent. Using a data base derived from all reported decisions of the Supreme Court of Canada between 1949 and 1992, this article applies party capability theory to the performance of Canada's highest court, and compares the findings with similar studies of American and British courts.

The appearance of a wide range of cultural phenomena at different periods in the history of western civilization has been described by Professor A. L. Kroeber in Configurations of Cultural Growth (Berkeley, 1946). He makes suggestive comments at various points to explain the relative strength or weakness of cultural elements but refrains from extended discussion. I do not propose to do more than add a footnote to these comments and in this to discuss the possible significance of communication to the rise and decline of cultural traits. A medium of communication has an important influence on the dissemination of knowledge over space and over time and it becomes necessary to study its characteristics in order to appraise its influence in its cultural setting. According to its characteristics it may be better suited to the dissemination of knowledge over time than over space, particularly if the medium is heavy and durable and not suited to transportation; or to the dissemination of knowledge over space than over time, particularly if the medium is light and easily transported. The relative emphasis on time or space will imply a bias of significance to the culture in which it is imbedded.

Immediately we venture on this inquiry we are compelled to recognize the bias of the period in which we work. An interest in the bias of other civilizations may in itself suggest a bias of our own. Our knowledge of other civilizations depends in large part on the character of the media used by each civilization in so far as it is capable of being preserved or of being made accessible by discovery as in the case of the results of archaeological expeditions. Writing on clay and on stone has been preserved more effectively than that on papyrus. Since durable commodities emphasize time and continuity, studies of civilization such as Toynbee's tend to have a bias toward religion and to show a neglect of problems of space, notably administration and law. The bias of modern civilization incidental to the newspaper and the radio will presume a perspective in consideration of civilizations dominated by other media. We can do little more than urge that we must be continually alert to the implications of this bias and perhaps hope that consideration of the implications of other media to various civilizations may enable us to see more clearly the bias of our own. In any case we will become a little more humble as to the characteristics of our civilization.

This article uses British Columbia forest policy to test our ability to distinguish between policy change and policy learning using the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) developed by Paul Sabatier. The authors find the ACF a useful way of approaching policy change in this sector, but argue that finer discriminations are needed to detect policy learning. They argue that Sabatier underestimates the extent to which the legitimation function of key ideas forces dominant advocacy coalitions to respond to criticisms in ways that promote learning. They conclude that, in this case, adaptive strategies undertaken by a dominant advocacy coalition in response to criticism has resulted in policy-oriented learning that may cause a major policy shift without an externally induced crisis in the forest policy sector.

This article explores the concept of citizenship in relation to certain Aboriginal women, whose membership in First Nations is subject to Canadian federal legislation and First Nations constitutions and membership codes. In the struggle for decolonization, Aboriginal peoples use the language of rights - rights to self-determination, and claims of fundamental human rights. The state has injected its limited policy of ''self-government'' into this conversation, characterized by the federal government's preference for delegating administrative powers to Indian Act bands. Since the 1985 Indian Act revisions, bands have been able to control their membership. Where prior to 1985 the federal government implemented sexist, racist legislation determining band membership, now some bands have racist, sexist membership codes. In both cases, the full citizenship capacity of affected Aboriginal women, in either the colonial state or in First Nations, is impaired. The bands in question resist criticism by invoking rights claims and traditional practices; the federal government washes its hands in deference to self-government. The rights claims of affected women are scarcely acknowledged, much less addressed. Meanwhile, their citizenship in both dominant and Aboriginal communities is negotiated with the realities of colonialism, racism and sexism. Their experience demonstrates the limitations of citizenship theory and of Canadian citizenship guarantees.

Between 1990 and 2010, a gradual process of institutional change has affected Canada's immigration and integration governance regime. The central characteristic of this process is the emergence of a new legitimate institutional group of actors: Canadian provinces. This change corresponds to a federalization of Canada's immigration and integration governance regime. It is a break from the previous pattern of federal dominance and provincial avoidance. It is not the result of diminished federal intervention in immigration and cannot be explained by exogenous shocks. Current explanations of this evolution focus on federal decisions and have trouble explaining provincial mobilization. Using a mechanistic approach to the analysis of social processes and insights on gradual institutional changes, this article demonstrates that provinces have been the central agents bringing about the federalization of Canada's immigration and integration governance regime between 1990 and 2010. Via a mechanism of province building centred on immigration, provinces have triggered and maintained in movement a decentralizing mechanism. The interactions of these two mechanisms, over time, gave rise to the federalization of immigration and integration in Canada.

Abstract. This study examines the consistency between public opinion and public policy during the period 1994–2001 by matching responses to national survey questions on 230 issues with enacted policy proposals on the same issues. Policy outcomes were consistent with majority opinion 49 per cent of the time. This represents a significant drop from 69 per cent during the Mulroney years (1985–1993). Low opinion-policy consistency since 1994 is primarily attributable to divergences between public majorities that are increasingly supportive of a change toward the right and the policies of Jean Chrétien that are more leftist and status quo oriented than those of his predecessor. We argue that these divergences go largely unnoticed by the public because they tend to occur on low-profile issues. On the other hand, the evidence suggests a much tighter correlation between opinion and policy on a small number of high-profile issues of which the public is much more aware, thereby creating the appearance of attentiveness to Canadian public opinion.

Résumé. En comparant les décisions sur 230 enjeux de politiques publiques avec les résultats de sondages nationaux sur ces mêmes enjeux, cet article cherche à quantifier le degré d'adéquation entre l'opinion publique et la politique gouvernementale entre 1994 et 2001. Les calculs révèlent que seulement 49 pour cent des décisions du gouvernement de Jean Chrétien sont allées dans le même sens que l'opinion publique, en nette diminution par rapport aux 69 pour cent observés pendant la période Mulroney (1985–1993). La baisse de corrélation depuis 1994 est principalement attribuable à la divergence entre une opinion publique de plus en plus favorable au changement et idéologiquement orientée à droite et la politique du gouvernement de Jean Chrétien sensiblement plus résistante au changement et idéologiquement plus à gauche que celle de son prédécesseur. Le public a tendance à ignorer le manque de corrélation entre l'opinion et les politiques gouvernementales parce que les enjeux en question sont relativement peu importants. Par contre, il semble que la corrélation entre l'opinion et les politiques soit beaucoup plus forte dans un petit nombre d'enjeux importants que le public reconnaît, créant ainsi l'apparence d'un gouvernement attentif aux souhaits de l'opinion publique canadienne.

Abstract. In this paper, the authors analyze the empirical process of securitization of the US–Canada border and then reflect on the model proposed by the Copenhagen School. We argue that securitization theory oversimplifies the political process of securitizing moves and audience acceptance. Rather than attributing securitization to a singular speaker addressing a specific audience, we present overlapping and ongoing language security games performed by varying relevant actors during the key period between the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA) in December 2004 and the signing of the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP) in June 2005, showing how multiple speakers participate in the continuing construction of a context in which this issue is increasingly treated as a matter of security. We also explore the language adopted by participants in the field, focusing on an expert panel convened by the Homeland Security Institute. We conclude that in the securitization of the US–Canada border there are inconsistencies between truth and discourse, as well as significant distinctions between official and bureaucratic discourses, further emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive model of securitization.

Résumé. Dans cet article, les auteurs font l'analyse du processus empirique de la sécurisation de la frontière Canado-Américaine à travers la réflexion sur le modèle proposé par l'École de Copenhague. Nous soutenons que cette théorie de sécurisation simplifie trop le processus politique de son initiation et de l'acceptation de l'auditeur. Au lieu d'attribuer la sécurisation à un orateur, s'adressant à un public particulier, nous présentons les jeux de langage continuels effectués par plusieurs acteurs pendant la période suivant la Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA) en décembre 2004, jusqu'à l'approbation de la Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP) en juin 2005. Nous maintenons que plusieurs orateurs participent dans la construction continuelle du contexte dans lequel l'affaire est de plus en plus comprise dans le cadre de sécurité. Nous explorons aussi le langage employé par les participants dans le champ, observant surtout un groupe d'experts convoqué au Homeland Security Institute. Nous concluons que dans le cas de la sécurisation de la frontière Canado-Américaine il existe des incohérences entre le discours et le réel, ainsi que des distinctions significatives entre les discours officiels et bureaucratiques, mettant l'accent sur l'importance d'un modèle compréhensif de sécurisation.

Public opinion regarding environmental issues has attracted considerable scholarly attention during the 1990s. Less attention has been paid to links between environmentally friendly attitudes and “green” behaviour and the degree to which behaviour is context or value-driven, especially in Canada. Using survey data from British Columbia, this article analyzes these links, paying particular attention to differences between public perceptions of local versus global environment, and how these concerns influence behaviour. The analysis also demonstrates the importance of distinguishing between different types of behaviour. While the crucial role of postmaterial values for three kinds of environmentally friendly behaviour is confirmed, other factors, particularly left/right ideological differences and personal financial circumstances emerge as significant explanatory variables. “Green consumer behaviour” is largely determined by local context. Local concerns also drive “green political activity,” but value differences are crucial as well. Left/right differences and personal financial circumstances are especially important in explaining “green pocketbook behaviour” — willingness to incur costs, either personally or through taxes, for environmental protection and enhancement.

An all-pervading interdependence is what makes economics so intractable a subject. Walras' algebra, which represented the relationships between prices and quantities as a system of equations, was one of the first explicit demonstrations of how everything could depend on everything without entailing circular reasoning. So far as positive economics is concerned the only relationships to be considered are those which are believed to be operative; that a man feels worse off in consequence of the change of fortune or behaviour of other men is by itself nothing to the purpose of positive economics. In order for such facts to qualify as agenda for an economics that seeks to formulate predictive hypotheses these feelings must have some impact on observable economic magnitudes—on the prices and the quantities of goods and factors. But for a normative study, at any rate for a study that is manifestly concerned with human welfare, such reactions of men to the behaviour of others are no less relevant simply because they do not register on the existing economic mechanisms. Indeed, it is just because these reactions fail to influence the working of the market that they are of particular interest to economists concerned with resource allocation.

A formal analysis of the amending formula of Canada's Constitution Act, 1982 is presented. It is shown that larger provinces have greater voices in determining constitutional amendments, except that there are two groupings of provinces within which power with respect to constitutional amendments is exactly equal. Further, it is argued that differences in power among the provinces are disproportionately small in comparison to differences in population, so that the amending formula systematically directs greater influence to the individual citizens of smaller provinces.

Most of the work on policy dynamics focuses on the agenda-setting stage of the policy cycle and argues that policy issues wax and wane in public attention, generating either a cyclical or evolutionary pattern of governmental activity in particular policy sectors. Anthony Downs's notion of a periodic “issue-attention cycle” and Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones's notion of a stepped or “punctuated equilibrium” pattern of policy change are prominent in the literature, but have received little empirical and virtually no cross-national verification. Utilizing the analysis of time-series data gathered on nuclear energy and acid rain issues appearing on government and public agendas in Canada over the period 1977–1992, this article elaborates the elements of the two models and subjects both to empirical testing. The article finds little support for either model in the Canadian case and argues the assumptions behind the models must be altered to account for this anomalous case.

This note argues that, widespread opinion to the contrary, Marx did not make a distinction between a class in itself and a class for itself but between a class against capital and a class for itself. Marx's formulation of a “class against capital” exhibits a political dimension lacking in a “class in itself”; political institutions and arrangements are not simply the instrument or the expression of a pre-existing class structure but rather condition or shape the class structure. The implications of the erroneous attribution to the theoretical understanding of class formation as well as practical politics are explored.