Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-05T05:58:50.241Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Le vote économique en contexte de crise financière : l'élection provinciale de 2008 au Québec

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 November 2011

Éric Bélanger  and
François Gélineau
Éric Bélanger
Affiliation:
Université McGill
François Gélineau
Affiliation:
Université Laval
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Résumé. En déclenchant une élection provinciale anticipée à l'automne 2008 en pleine crise financière, le premier ministre du Québec, Jean Charest, fit le pari que la population réélirait son gouvernement en raison de sa compétence à gérer la «tempête économique» qui s'annonçait. Cet article cherche à déterminer le poids de la variable économique dans les choix électoraux lors de ce scrutin en exploitant les données d'une enquête d'opinion menée en décembre 2008. Ces données permettent notamment de vérifier à quel point le «vote économique» lors de cette élection en fut un de nature traditionnelle, c'est-à-dire s'appuyant sur les évaluations rétrospectives de l'économie de la part des votants, ou plutôt un de nature prospective, reposant sur les perceptions de la compétence des partis à gérer la crise économique annoncée. Nous analysons également l'effet particulier exercé sur le vote par l'enjeu des pertes de la Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec.

Abstract. By calling an early election in the fall of 2008 in the midst of a financial crisis, Quebec Premier Jean Charest hoped that the population would re-elect his government on the basis of its competence at dealing with the upcoming “economic storm.” This article attempts to determine the actual influence that the economy had on Quebeckers' vote choice in that election, with the use of survey data collected in December 2008. The data allows us to verify whether “economic voting” in that election was of a traditional nature, that is based on retrospective assessments of economic conditions, or was more prospective in nature, that is based on perceptions of the parties' competence at managing the economic crisis that would soon follow. The impact on the vote of the issue of the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec's losses is also analyzed.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 44 , Issue 3 , September 2011 , pp. 529 - 551
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Références

Albert, Alain. 1980. «Conditions économiques et élections : le cas de l'élection provinciale de 1976 au Québec». Revue canadienne de science politique 13 : 325–45.Google Scholar
Anderson, Cameron D. 2010. «Economic Voting in Canada». Dans Voting Behaviour in Canada, dir. Anderson, Cameron D. et Stephenson, Laura B.. Vancouver : University of British Columbia Press, 139–62.Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric. 2003. «Issue Ownership by Canadian Political Parties 1953–2001». Revue canadienne de science politique 36 : 539–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bélanger, Éric et Gélineau, François. 2010. «Does Perceived Competence Matter? Political Parties and Economic Voting in Canadian Federal Elections». Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 20 : 83–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bélanger, Éric et Meguid, Bonnie M.. 2008. «Issue Salience, Issue Ownership, and Issue-Based Vote Choice». Electoral Studies 27 : 477–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bélanger, Éric et Nadeau, Richard. 2009. Le comportement électoral des Québécois. Montréal : Les Presses de l'Université de Montréal.Google Scholar
Bellucci, Paolo. 2006. «Tracing the Cognitive and Affective Roots of “Party Competence”: Italy and Britain, 2001». Electoral Studies 25 : 548–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William Roberts et Golder, Matt. 2006. «Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses». Political Analysis 14 : 63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2004. «Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms». International Organization 58 : 807–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butt, Sarah. 2006. «How Voters Evaluate Economic Competence: A Comparison Between Parties In and Out of Power». Political Studies 54 : 743–66.Google Scholar
Chappell, Henry W. Jr. et Keech, William R.. 1985. «A New View of Political Accountability for Economic Performance». American Political Science Review 79 : 10–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Scotto, Thomas J. et Kornberg, Allan. 2011. «Valence Politics and Economic Crisis: Electoral Choice in Canada, 2008». Electoral Studies, à paraître.Google Scholar
Crête, Jean et Simard, Johanne. 1984. «Conjoncture économique et élections : une étude des élections au Québec». Dans Comportement électoral au Québec, dir. Crête, Jean. Chicoutimi : Gaëtan Morin, 165–97.Google Scholar
Duch, Raymond M. et Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B. et Stimson, James A.. 2002. The Macro Polity. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven : Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Friedrich, Robert J. 1982. «In Defense of Multiplicative Terms in Multiple Regression Equations». American Journal of Political Science 26 : 797–833.Google Scholar
Gidengil, Elisabeth, Fournier, Patrick, Everitt, Joanna, Nevitte, Neil et Blais, André. 2009. «The Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat». Communication présentée au congrès annuel de l'Association canadienne de science politique, Carleton University, Ottawa.Google Scholar
Guérin, Daniel et Nadeau, Richard. 1995. «Conjoncture économique et comportement électoral au Québec». Recherches sociographiques 26 : 65–76.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr. 1966. The Responsible Electorate. Cambridge : Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago : University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Kramer, Gerald H. 1971. «Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964». American Political Science Review 65 : 131–143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuechler, Manfred. 1991. «Issues and Voting in the European Elections 1989». European Journal of Political Research 19 : 81–103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lago-Peñas, Ignacio et Lago-Peñas, Santiago. 2005. «Does the Economy Matter? An Empirical Analysis of the Causal Chain Connecting the Economy and the Vote in Galicia». Economics and Politics 17 : 215–243.Google Scholar
Lemieux, Vincent. 2006. «Le gouvernement Charest et les valeurs libérales». Dans Le Parti libéral : enquête sur les réalisations du gouvernement Charest, dir. Pétry, François, Bélanger, Éric et Imbeau, Louis M.. Québec : Les Presses de l'Université Laval, 41–50.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. et Nadeau, Richard. 2009. «Obama and the Economy in 2008». PS : Political Science & Politics 42 : 479–483.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Nadeau, Richard et Elias, Angelo. 2008. «Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data». American Journal of Political Science 52 : 84–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. et Stegmaier, Mary. 2000. «Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes». Annual Review of Political Science 3 : 183–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. et Stegmaier, Mary. 2007. «Economic Models of Voting». Dans The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, dir. Dalton, Russell J. et Klingemann, Hans-Dieter. Oxford : Oxford University Press, 518–537.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S. et Stimson, James A.. 1992. «Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy». American Political Science Review 86 : 597–611.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard. 2008. «Un bon choix stratégique : l'économie surtout, mais la santé aussi, favorisent le Parti libéral lors de ces élections». La Presse, 20 novembre, A29.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard et Bélanger, Éric. 1999. «L'appui aux partis politiques québécois, 1989–1998». Dans L'année politique au Québec 1997–1998, dir. Boily, Robert. Montréal : Les Presses de l'Université de Montréal, 203–214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Blais, André, Gidengil, Elisabeth et Nevitte, Neil. 2001. «Perceptions of Party Competence in the 1997 Election». Dans Party Politics in Canada, 8e édition, dir. Thorburn, Hugh G. et Whitehorn, Alan. Toronto : Prentice-Hall, 413–430.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard et Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2001. «National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections». Journal of Politics 63 : 159–181.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Pétry, François et Bélanger, Éric. 2010. «Issue-Based Strategies in Election Campaigns: The Case of Health Care in the 2000 Canadian Federal Election». Political Communication 27 : 367–388.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petrocik, John R. 1996. «Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study». American Journal of Political Science 40 : 825–850.Google Scholar
Pétry, François et Gélineau, François. 2009. Guide pratique d'introduction à la régression en sciences sociales, 2e édition. Québec : Les Presses de l'Université Laval.Google Scholar
Pinard, Maurice et Hamilton, Richard. 1977. «The Independence Issue and the Polarization of the Electorate: The 1973 Quebec Election». Revue canadienne de science politique 10 : 215–259.Google Scholar
Pinard, Maurice et Hamilton, Richard. 1978. «The Parti Québécois Comes to Power: An Analysis of the 1976 Quebec Election». Revue canadienne de science politique 11 : 739–775.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanders, David. 1999. «Conservative Incompetence, Labour Responsibility and the Feelgood Factor: Why the Economy Failed to Save the Conservatives in 1997». Electoral Studies 18 : 251–270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scotto, Thomas J., Clarke, Harold D., Kornberg, Allan, Reifler, Jason, Sanders, David, Stewart, Marianne C. et Whiteley, Paul. 2010. «The Dynamic Political Economy of Support for Barack Obama During the 2008 Presidential Election Campaign». Electoral Studies 29 : 545–556.Google Scholar
Smith, Mark A. 2007. «Economic Insecurity, Party Reputations, and the Republican Ascendance». Dans The Transformation of American Politics: Activist Government and the Rise of Conservatism, dir. Pierson, Paul et Skocpol, Theda. Princeton : Princeton University Press, 135–159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Brug, Wouter. 2004. «Issue Ownership and Party Choice». Electoral Studies 23 : 209–233.Google Scholar
Vavreck, Lynn. 2009. The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns. Princeton : Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar