Scenarios, such as populations experiencing a bottleneck or an
exponential growth, have been
suggested as candidates for explaining the observed differences among
mitochondrial DNA sequences
in a sample of a given population closed to migrations. Here, population
size is considered as capable
of varying, and the set of the at least 95% most probable population paths
capable of producing the
observed mean number of pairwise nucleotide differences is delineated.
To do this, the mean and the
variance of coalescence times of two genes taken in an n-genes
sample with varying population size
are expressed. The observed mean coalescence time already echoed a set
of
population paths due to
the variance associated to the coalescent process, but only specific
scenarios have been studied, such
as the bottleneck or the exponential function. However, mitochondrial DNA
data does not reflect
a single scenario, after the effect of the variance. These scenarios
implied by pairwise nucleotide
differences are described through a set-valued function, the
‘regulation map’, a convenient way to represent temporal population
paths.