The release of heat from sea-ice leads is an important component of the heat budget in the Arctic, but the impact of leads on regional scale climate is difficult to assess without information on their distribution in both space and time. Remote sensing of leads using satellite data, specifically AVHRR thermal and Landsat visible imagery, is examined with respect to one lead parameter: lead width. Atmospheric effects are illustrated through the concept of thermal contrast transmittance, where the brightness temperature contrast between leads of various ice thicknesses and the surrounding multi-year ice is simulated using a radiative transfer model. Calculations are made as a function of aerosol, ice crystal precipitation, and cirrus cloud optical depths. For example, at ice crystal optical depths of more than about 1.5 under mean January conditions in the central Arctic, the brightness temperature differences between 2 m and 5 cm thick ice are similar to the ice temperature variability so that there would be insufficient contrast to distinguish a lead from the surrounding ice. The geometrical aspects of the sensor are also simulated by degrading Landsat data so that the effect of sensor field-of-view on retrieved lead width statistics can be assessed. Large leads tend to “grow” with increased pixel size while small leads disappear. Changes in lead width and orientation distributions can readily be seen.

Local and transect ice-thickness measurements were performed between May and November 2007 on an ice floe in the Transpolar Drift of the Arctic Ocean using an ice mass-balance buoy and electromagnetic induction (EM) sounding. Repeated EM surveys along an originally 2160m long profile including level and deformed ice showed that between June and September modal and mean thicknesses decreased by 0.6 and 0.86m respectively. the modal thickness decrease is in good agreement with the thinning of 0.6m observed by the ice mass-balance buoy at one location on unponded ice during the same period, although the local observations do not capture the different melt rates on level and rough ice. the paper discusses methodological and operational challenges in sustaining both measurements over periods of several months, and concludes that more work needs to be done to better understand their representativeness.

A complete three-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-shect model for the entire Antarctic ice sheet, including an ice shelf, grounding line-dynamics and isostatic bed adjustment, is employed to simulate the response of the ice sheet during the last glacial-interglacial cycle with respect to changing environmental conditions. To do this, the Vostok temperature signal is used to force changes in surface temperature and accumulation rate and sea level prescribed by a piecewise linear sawtooth function. Model calculations started at 160 ka B.P. In line with glacial geological evidence, the most pronounced fluctuations are found in the West Antarctic ice sheet and appear to be essentially controlled by changes in eustatic sea level. Grounding occurs more readily in the Weddell Sea than in the Ross Sea and, due to the long time scales involved, the ice sheet does not reach its full glacial extent until 16 ka B.p. The concomitant disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet is triggered by a rise in sea level and takes around 6000 years to complete. The ice sheet then halts close to the present state and no collapse takes place. This Holocene deglaciation appears to have added 6–8 million km3 of ice to the world oceans, corresponding with an Antarctic contribution to world-wide sea level of 12–15 m.

A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 90˚ change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. the sea-ice domain is 400 km in size and consists of polygonal floes obtained through a Voronoi tessellation. Initially the floes are frozen together through viscous–elastic joints that can break under sufficient compressive, tensile and shear deformation. A constant wind-stress gradient is applied until the initially frozen ice pack is broken into roughly diamond-shaped aggregates, with crack angles determined by wing-crack formation. Then partial refreezing of the cracks delineating the aggregates is modelled through reduction of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotated by 90˚. New cracks form, delineating aggregates with a different orientation. Our results show the new crack orientation depends on the refrozen fraction of the initial faults: as this fraction increases, the new cracks gradually rotate to the new wind direction, reaching 90˚ for fully refrozen faults. Such reorientation is determined by a competition between new cracks forming at a preferential angle determined by the wing-crack theory and at old cracks oriented at a less favourable angle but having higher stresses due to shorter contacts across the joints.

Research on the sources and spatial variation of the chemical content of snow was conducted in four headwater basins of the eastern Tien Shan, China. The mean SO42- concentration of 16.2 μeq L-1 was three-fold greater than background concentrations from other remote areas of the world. About 80% of the SO42- in snow was deposited in association with Ca2+ and Mg2+ , partially accounting for the relatively high pH of 6.34 in new snow. The variance of individualions in the snowpack ranged from 24 to 46%, measured as the standard deviation divided by the mean and based on 59 samples. Analysis of variance tests showed that solute concentrations varied significantly among sites within an individual basin and that the mean solute concentrations did not vary significantly among basins. Aeolian dust in the snowpack resulted in significant post-depositional alterations in the solute content of snow. Mineral weathering of the dust in the snowpack of the Tien Shan mproduced alkalinity and Ca2+, increasing conductance and buffering H+ .

The upper 10 m of the firn of a Svalbard glacier is imaged along the centre line using a 500 MHz ground-penetrating radar, and a 10 m firn core taken along the profile. Complex reflection coefficients are calculated from the high-resolution capacitance and conductance measurements made on the snow core. The reflection coefficient depth series is converted to the time domain and convolved with model radar monopulses to synthesize traces that compare well with radar traces recorded near the ice core. Differences are probably due to cm-scale physical and chemical inhomogeneities that are smoothed when imaged by the radar beam, which integrates information over areas that are of the same order of magnitude as the depth to the layer.

A prime input variable to uncoupled ice-sheet models, or for estimating the mass budget of present-day ice sheets, is the distribution of net surface mass balance. In most eases this is extrapolated from relatively few direct measurements over a limited time period, and parameterised in terms of continentality, surface elevation and other broad-scale indicators. Between 1989 and 1995 a series of oversnow traverses around the interior of the Lambert Glacier basin gathered a comprehensive set of data on snow accumulation and surface properties, surface climatology, ice-sheet velocities, elevations and thicknesses. Above the 2000 m level accumulation averages were found to be 76 kg ma−2a−1 (σ = 74), much lower than at similar elevations in Wilkes Land. The traverse route contains three distinct accumulation regimes: a relatively high accumulation zone along the western side despite higher average elevations, a very low accumulation zone in the south due to the effect of inereased continentality and an eastern sector that exhibits a rain-shadow effect in predominantly easterly wind fields. Inter-annual variability is high- with 1993 a colder year, recording only half the longer term average accumulation over the portion of the route that was measured.

Understanding the mechanical properties of saline ice is important for engineering design as well as for operations in polar regions. In order to gain understanding of the basic mechanisms of deformation and fracture, laboratory-grown columnar saline ice, representative of first-year sea ice, was tested in uniaxial compression under a variety of conditions of Strain rate (10−7 to 10−1 s−1), temper-aiure (−40°, −20°, −10° and −5°C) and orientation (loading vertically or horizontally: i.e. parallel or perpendicular to the growth direction). The range of strain rate spanned the ductile-to-brittle transition for every combination of temperature and specimen orientation. The results of over 250 tests are reported. Mechanical properties, failure mode and ice structure are analyzed with respect to the testing conditons. The results show that strength is dependent upon the ice structure, orientation, strain rate and temperature. During loading in the ductile regime the structure is altered (e.g. by recrystallization), whereas in the brittle regime the majority of the structural change is through cracking. The results are compared to results from the literature on both natural sea ice and laboratory-grown saline ice. Where possible, they are interpreted in terms of micromechanica] models.

The history of glacier length fluctuations serves as a reliable indicator of the past climate. In this paper, a numerical flowline model has been used to study the relationship between length variations of Chhota Shigri glacier and local climate since 1876. The simulated front positions of Chhota Shigri glacier are in agreement with those observed. After a successful simulation of the past retreat, the model was also used to predict future evolution of the glacier for the next 100 years under different climatic scenarios. These simulations indicate that the Chhota Shigri glacier may lose ~90% of its present volume by 2100 if the local temperature increases by 2.4 K, and for a temperature rise of 5.5 K, the glacier loses almost all its volume.

An approach to deriving the thickness of the Antarctic ice sheet and inferring the bedrock elevation to fill in gaps in the compilations of ice-thickness observations is presented. It combines assumptions about the general state of balance of the ice sheet and of the dynamics of ice flow, with information about ice accumulation and the topography of the ice-sheet surface elevation to infer the ice thickness and bedrock. A simplified version of the scheme already shows the potential of this approach, as is demonstrated by an application to the Lambert Glacier basin, East Antarctica.

Data of annual mean temperature, annual total precipitation and snow-cover area (SCA) in the winter season from 1982 to 2001 have been analyzed to examine the response of SCA to climate change in the Tarim basin, western China. The results show that over the entire basin SCA exhibits a slowly decreasing trend. The responses of SCA to temperature and precipitation in the northern, western and southern parts of the basin show a stronger effect of precipitation change on SCA than that of temperature. SCA has slowly increased below 2500ma.s.l., but has decreased at higher altitudes. The lowest-altitude zone was apt to be affected by precipitation, while the highest-altitude zone seems to have been influenced mainly by temperature. The middle zone from 2500 to 5000 m was the most sensitive to climate change. Snowfall and melt rates were higher in the 1990s than in the 1980s. In the winter season, SCA change was positively correlated with precipitation change but not with temperature change.

Wireless sensors have the potential to provide significant insight into in situ physical and biogeochemical processes in sub-ice hydrologic systems. However, the nature of the glacial environment means that sensor deployment and data return is challenging. We describe two bespoke sensor platforms, electronic tracers or ‘ETracers’, and ‘cryoegg’, for untethered, wireless data collection from glacial hydrologic systems, including subglacial channels. Both employ radio frequencies for data transmission, are designed to endure harsh environmental conditions and can withstand low temperatures, high pressure, turbulence and abrasion. We discuss the design, optimization and field testing of the ETracers and cryoegg, culminating in test deployments beneath the Greenland ice sheet. The small, low-cost ETracers were able to travel through subglacial drainage channels, from where they returned water pressure measurements through 100 m of ice, and could measure water depth in crevasses. The larger cryoegg was able to return multi-parameter data from moulins through 500 m of wet ice to receivers up to 2 km away, and from 12 m depth in a proglacial lake to a receiver on the shore. The tests demonstrate that the cryoegg and ETracers are low-power, versatile, robust wireless sensor platforms suitable for glacial environments, which may be used with portable, low-cost receiving equipment.

Energy-balancemodels driven by radiation and turbulent heat fluxes have been widely applied to predicting the response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change. However, a lack of knowledge of the temporal and spatial distribution of cloud amount and type has necessitated the use of parameterizations or statistical models of cloud cover. This deficiency results in large uncertainties in both shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes. Stereo-matching of nadir and forward view AlongTrack Scanning Radiometer-2 (ATSR-2) image pairs has been shown to be a reliable method of retrieving cloud top height, and further cloud properties can be derived from thermal imagery allowing classification into cloud type. A 1 year cloud record for a transect across southern Greenland derived from stereo-matching is presented here, and comparisons are made with climate re-analysis data and ground observations. The cloud-cover data were used in a simple radiative transfer model, and the impact of clouds on the net radiation fluxes was found to be considerable. Different cloud scenarios produced up to 40 Wm–2 difference in net radiation balance. In the ablation zone, where the albedo is lower and most variable, the sensitivity to cloud-cover fraction was less marked, but the higher spatial resolution of the ATSR-2 cloud record was reflected by a much more varied trend in radiation balance. Whether the net radiation balance increases or decreases with increased cloud cover was found to be a function of the cloud amount and type and also the surface albedo. The sensitivity of the model to a ±5% change in cloud amount was found to be comparable to a 1 K change in temperature. This clearly demonstrates the importance of reliable, quantitative cloud data in mass-balance and other glaciological studies.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite images are used to monitor Arctic sea ice, with systematic data records dating back to 1991. We propose a semi-supervised classification method that separates open water from sea ice and can utilise ERS-1/2, Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-2 and Sentinel-1 SAR images. The classification combines automatic segmentation with a manual segment selection stage. The segmentation algorithm requires only the backscatter intensities and incidence angle values as input, therefore can be used to establish a consistent decadal sea ice record. In this study we investigate the sea ice conditions in two Svalbard fjords, Kongsfjorden and Rijpfjorden. Both fjords have a seasonal ice cover, though Rijpfjorden has a longer sea ice season. The satellite image dataset has weekly to daily records from 2002 until now, and less frequent records between 1991 and 2002. Time overlap between different sensors is investigated to ensure consistency in the reported sea ice cover. The classification results have been compared to high-resolution SAR data as well as in-situ measurements and sea ice maps from Ny-Ålesund. For both fjords the length of the sea ice season has shortened since 2002 and for Kongsfjorden the maximum sea ice coverage is significantly lower after 2006.

With the use of time series of AVHRR imagery we examine a non-typical case of ice motion and lead pattern formation in the Beaufort Sea during a period of persistent southwesterly to southerly winds during 31 March-14 April 1991. Our goal is to suggest sea-ice rheologies through the use of satellite imagery. Ice motions were estimated by making a negative of the first image in a time sequence and combining it with a second image using a logical AND operation. Thus leads for the first day are white and those for the second day are black. For the period 31 March-5 April with westerly winds there was a slip line oriented southwest-northeast across the central Beaufort Sea and another slip line parallel to it 150 km to the north. Relative motion was 0.015 m s−1 across the slip lines. With southerly winds during 9-14 April the entire field of leads was advected to the north. Lead patterns are organized on a hierarchy of scales and the scales are a result of the particular magnitude of forcing by the atmosphere. Angles between diamond-shaped lead features with spacings of both 150 km and 10-20 km are approximately 30°, which as Erlingsson showed corresponds to an angle of internal friction of 15°. We provide an argument for the scale-invariant nature of the lead patterns and suggest that it may be possible to parameterize small-scale (less than tens of km) lead patterns.

We present a velocity time series of a dry-mixed real-scale avalanche that was recorded at different heights on a mast at the Swiss Vallée de la Sionne avalanche test site. The dataset is of extraordinary quality in terms of completeness and spatio-temporal resolution, and allows the evolution of distinct flow phases of the avalanche to be traced. In particular, we found velocity profile inversions at the transition from the avalanche front to the avalanche body. We provide a tentative empirical description of the profile inversions and briefly discuss our observations in the light of theoretical considerations.

The reduced societal acceptance of living in regions exposed to snow avalanches, and the increased economic consequences when houses are located within a hazard zone, highlight the uncertainty concerning avalanche run-out prediction. The limitations of today’s zoning procedures are especially pronounced in potential avalanche terrain where there are few observations of snow avalanches, where old buildings are present in the potential run-out zone, and where the local climate does not favour severe snow accumulation. This paper combines a mechanical probabilistic model for avalanche release with a statistical/topographical model for avalanche run-out distance to obtain the unconditional probability of extreme run-out distance. For the mechanical model, a first-order reliability method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations are compared. The interpretation of the statistical/topographical model either as an extreme value model or as a single value model is discussed. Furthermore, both a classical approach where the probability of an avalanche occurring is a constant, and a Bayesian approach with stochastic probability, are compared. Finally, example applications in hazard zoning are presented, with emphasis on how the influence of historical observations, local climate, etc., on run-out distance can be quantified in statistical terms and how a specified certainty level can be found from constructing confidence intervals for, for example, the most likely largest run-out distance during various time intervals.

In Northeast Greenland, the Norske Øer Ice Barrier (NØIB) abuts Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79N) and Zachariae Isstrøm (ZI), two floating outlets of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. NØIB is an extensive region of perennially fast sea ice, which varies in size from year to year, but with complete breakup a rare event in the 20th century. It reportedly broke up in the 1950s and was seen to break up in 1997. Since 2000 the NØIB has broken up during 11 of the last 14 summers. The forcings driving the increased frequency of ice barrier breakup are poorly understood, and it is not clear if the breakup is a purely local phenomenon or an indicator of regional changes in the ocean and atmosphere. Here we use a logistic regression statistical model to show that the odds of breakup are linked to June positive degree days and July wind speeds at a nearby weather station. It is too soon to know if subtle changes detected on 79N and ZI in the last decade are connected to breakups of the NØIB but, if they are, it suggests a complex interaction between the atmosphere, ocean and outlet glaciers in this part of Greenland.

In this paper, we outline the use of Raman spectroscopy coupled with scanning confocal optical microscopy for determining the microstructural location of impurities in ice-core specimens. We also demonstrate how the orientations of grains and the misorientations across grain boundaries can be determined to high precision for ice polycrystals using either selected area channeling patterns or electron backscatter patterns in a scanning electron microscope.

While sea-ice drift tends to be a relatively coherent field moving largely in response to spatially averaged wind, strain-rate observations show relative ice motion to be much more of a chaotic field with deformation occurring along narrow intersection strikes between effectively rigid plates. This relative motion also has considerable energy at high frequencies which are not coherent with the wind forcing. Plastic rheologies for a strongly interactive medium are inherently able to predict such fractures. To investigate this phenomenon, this paper presents a basic anisotropic theory for multiple-oriented weaknesses. When coupled with short-term evolution equations for ice strength, this model is found to yield strong zones of failure over the Arctic basin, with relatively rigid motion in between. These failure lines typically occur along geostrophic wind contours. These zones are also found to be created with appropriate "Coulombic" isotropic rheologies. When combined with a previously developed inertial embedding procedure for the oceanic boundary layer, the resulting deformation field tends to fluctuate with considerable power near the inertial period even though the wind field is constant. The mechanisms necessary for obtaining such oriented features are discussed.