The prediction of the future is always a relatively uncertain process. The only certain fact is that the prediction is unlikely to be wholly accurate. Even the prediction of trends following examination of past performance will be uncertain regarding the future rate of advance and may be entirely upset by new discoveries and their application. This is as true for examining the future of airframe materials as it is for prediction of economic growth, which itself significantly affects the development of materials technology in the aircraft industry. However, 100 years of powered manned flight does give a solid database from which to begin. In that period airframes have moved from wood, wire and canvas, through to riveted and stressed skin metal structures to adhesively bonded polymer composites. In each case the use of new materials is associated with a change in fabrication methods and it may be confidently anticipated that this will remain true in the future. This fact accounts for a justified conservatism in embracing new materials, not simply because of the need to develop experience and confidence in them, but also because of the costs associated with new constructional methods entailed in their application. It also, in part, accounts for the generally slower pace of application of new materials relative to what is initially predicted: the other powerful brake being the state of the economy and the market for new aircraft at any particular time. The early prediction of the demise of aluminium and its replacement by polymer composites made in the 1980s being a case in point, while the failure of alloys containing lithium to replace conventional aluminium alloys had more to do with cost and decreasing fuel prices than any alloy development problems. It can, however, be expected that, as in the twentieth century, military aircraft will exploit larger mass fractions of advanced materials and at earlier dates than civil transport aircraft, given their very different operational requirements and much shorter design lives. The likely advent of unmanned combat aircraft may well accentuate this difference.

The first centennial of man's first powered flight, which was performed by Wilbur (1867–1912) and Orville (1871–1948) Wright (Fig. 1) will be celebrated in 2003. These brothers' unique and trendsetting enterprise, their skills to develop, build and commercialise controllable and load-carrying flying machines, formed the first example of a private interdisciplinary aerospace development and design initiative. It was at the same time a rare example of entrepreneurial engineering. Their work involved wind-tunnel testing of lifting devices and full-scale tests of major structural components. Equally if not more importantly they developed an essential propulsion system consisting of a lightweight 36hp engine with four cylinders in line and a fuel injected carburettor. This engine propelled two pusher propellers through a drive system of chains. Moreover they developed the systems to control their flight. The twistable wing tips that control rolling and heading during the flight were the last remains of the former trend to mimic bird flight.

This paper looks to future developments and concepts in Systems and Avionics. One hundred years ago neither ‘avionics’ nor even ‘systems’ would have been recognised as having a place in aeronautics. The concept of aircraft systems developed, as the complexity of each element of the aircraft grew, requiring specialism in the design, operation and maintenance of those elements. Early examples would have been the propulsion and flying controls systems. By the 1930s passenger aircraft might have carried, in addition to the pilots, a navigator, flight engineer and radio operator, each responsible for his own collection of systems, with the aircraft itself probably having an embryonic electrical system.

Flight simulation has definitely kept pace with powered flight through the past century, and its future is seemingly unlimited. To understand where the future might lie, it is important to consider the current situation, in terms of training, engineering and entertainment industry (consumer) uses of simulation. As will be shown, simulation has become a critical tool for use in aircraft design and validation, as well as playing a key and well-known role in flight training. Of course, entertainment uses of simulation are becoming more common; ranging from PC-based games to rides at the mall. By reflecting on these uses of simulation and the drivers behind them, it is possible to project into the future; both near-term, and well into the next 100 years. The projections will hopefully lead to healthy discussion and further speculation in academic and industry forums – and ultimately to new and better ideas.

In writing this essay on rotorcraft I have chosen to confine my interests to the flying machines themselves, their development and the pressures that are shaping their future.

To attempt to predict the future of light and sporting aviation in Britain is not possible without a study of how it has arrived at where it is today. How, in the early days, it was the enterprise of the individual enthusiast which was the driving force in all aviation progress, to the present where ‘private’ flying, in all its many forms, has been massively outgrown by commercial airline operations.

The 1903 flights of the Wrights did not appear out of the blue. They were just one more exciting happening at a time of great engineering ventures. Trains were running regularly all over Britain, the internal combustion engine was reliable enough to power private motor cars and city buses. Gliders had been successfully flown, telephones were in regular use. There were passenger ships powered by 70,000hp engines crossing the Atlantic at speeds of 25kt. The world was wide open for anything new and in 1903 aviation quickly took pride of place.

Light aviation was the name given to ‘amateur’ flying in the 1920s, to distinguish it from military and commercial aviation. It is still the valuable entry into aviation generally, as it is a relatively inexpensive way to try out new ideas. But to fulfil its potential it has to remain attractive and affordable, particularly to the young. This paper endeavours to speculate how light aviation will fare during aviation’s second century in Britain - or at least for the next 20-30 years, in an increasingly complex world in which global accessibility is commonplace.