Assume that the surplus of an insurer follows a compound Poisson surplus process. When the surplus is below zero or the insurer is on deficit, the insurer could borrow money at a debit interest rate to pay claims. Meanwhile, the insurer will repay the debts from her premium income. The negative surplus may return to a positive level. However, when the negative surplus is below a certain critical level, the surplus is no longer able to be positive. Absolute ruin occurs at this moment. In this paper, we study absolute ruin questions by defining an expected discounted penalty function at absolute ruin. The function includes the absolute ruin probability, the Laplace transform of the time to absolute ruin, the deficit at absolute ruin, the surplus just before absolute ruin, and many other quantities related to absolute ruin. First, we derive a system of integro-differential equations satisfied by the function and obtain a defective renewal equation that links the integro-differential equations in the system. Second, we show that when the initial surplus goes to infinity, the absolute ruin probability and the classical ruin probability are asymptotically equal for heavy-tailed claims while the ratio of the absolute ruin probability to the classical ruin probability goes to a positive constant that is less than one for light-tailed claims. Finally, we give explicit expressions for the function for exponential claims.

We study a service facility modeled as a queueing system with finite or infinite capacity. Arriving customers enter if there is room in the facility and if they are willing to pay the price posted by the service provider. Customers belong to one of a finite number of classes that have different willingnesses-to-pay. Moreover, there is a penalty for congestion in the facility in the form of state-dependent holding costs. The service provider may advertise class-specific prices that may fluctuate over time. We show the existence of a unique optimal stationary pricing policy in a continuous and unbounded action space that maximizes the long-run average profit per unit time. We determine an expression for this policy under certain conditions. We also analyze the structure and the properties of this policy.

We consider a two-color, randomly reinforced urn with equal reinforcement distributions and we characterize the distribution of the urn's limit proportion as the unique continuous solution of a functional equation involving unknown probability distributions on [0, 1].

We apply conjugate duality to establish the existence of optimal portfolios in an asset-allocation problem, with the goal of minimizing the variance of the final wealth which results from trading over a fixed, finite horizon in a continuous-time, complete market, subject to the constraints that the expected final wealth equal a specified target value and the portfolio of the investor (defined by the dollar amount invested in each stock) take values in a given closed, convex set. The asset prices are modelled by Itô processes, for which the market parameters are random processes adapted to the information filtration available to the investor. We synthesize a dual optimization problem and establish a set of optimality relations, similar to the Euler-Lagrange and transversality relations of calculus of variations, giving necessary and sufficient conditions for the given optimization problem and its dual to each have a solution, with zero duality gap. We then solve these relations, to establish the existence of an optimal portfolio.

In this article a collection of random self-similar fractal dendrites is constructed, and their Hausdorff dimension is calculated. Previous results determining this quantity for random self-similar structures have relied on geometrical properties of an underlying metric space or the scaling factors being bounded uniformly away from 0. However, using a percolative argument, and taking advantage of the tree-like structure of the sets considered here, it is shown that conditions such as these are not necessary. The scaling factors of the recursively defined structures in consideration form what is known as a multiplicative cascade, and results about the height of this random object are also obtained.

Consider a random graph, having a prespecified degree distribution F, but other than that being uniformly distributed, describing the social structure (friendship) in a large community. Suppose that one individual in the community is externally infected by an infectious disease and that the disease has its course by assuming that infected individuals infect their not yet infected friends independently with probability p. For this situation, we determine the values of R0, the basic reproduction number, and τ0, the asymptotic final size in the case of a major outbreak. Furthermore, we examine some different local vaccination strategies, where individuals are chosen randomly and vaccinated, or friends of the selected individuals are vaccinated, prior to the introduction of the disease. For the studied vaccination strategies, we determine Rv, the reproduction number, and τv, the asymptotic final proportion infected in the case of a major outbreak, after vaccinating a fraction v.

We study the ruin probability where the claim sizes are modeled by a stationary ergodic symmetric α-stable process. We exploit the flow representation of such processes, and we consider the processes generated by conservative flows. We focus on two classes of conservative α-stable processes (one discrete-time and one continuous-time), and give results for the order of magnitude of the ruin probability as the initial capital goes to infinity. We also prove a solidarity property for null-recurrent Markov chains as an auxiliary result, which might be of independent interest.

Blackwell (1951), in his seminal work on comparison of experiments, ordered two experiments using a dilation ordering: one experiment, Y, is ‘more spread out’ in the sense of dilation than another one, X, if E(c(Y))≥E(c(X)) for all convex functions c. He showed that this ordering is equivalent to two other orderings, namely (i) a total time on test ordering and (ii) a martingale relationship E(Yʹ | Xʹ)=Xʹ, where (Xʹ,Yʹ) has a joint distribution with the same marginals as X and Y. These comparisons are generalized to balayage orderings that are defined in terms of generalized convex functions. These balayage orderings are equivalent to (i) iterated total integral of survival orderings and (ii) martingale-type orderings which we refer to as k-mart orderings. These comparisons can arise naturally in model fitting and data confidentiality contexts.

In the classical risk model with initial capital u, let τ(u) be the time of ruin, X+(u) be the risk reserve just before ruin, and Y+(u) be the deficit at ruin. Gerber and Shiu (1998) defined the function mδ(u) =E[e−δ τ(u)w(X+(u), Y+(u)) 1 (τ(u) < ∞)], where δ ≥ 0 can be interpreted as a force of interest and w(r,s) as a penalty function, meaning that mδ(u) is the expected discounted penalty payable at ruin. This function is known to satisfy a defective renewal equation, but easy explicit formulae for mδ(u) are only available for certain special cases for the claim size distribution. Approximations thus arise by approximating the desired mδ(u) by that associated with one of these special cases. In this paper a functional approach is taken, giving rise to first-order correction terms for the above approximations.

Large deviation estimates are derived for sums of random variables with certain dependence structures, including finite population statistics and random graphs. The argument is based on Stein's method, but with a novel modification of Stein's equation inspired by the Cramér transform.

We derive a new compound Poisson distribution with explicit parameters to approximate the number of overlapping occurrences of any set of words in a Markovian sequence. Using the Chen-Stein method, we provide a bound for the approximation error. This error converges to 0 under the rare event condition, even for overlapping families, which improves previous results. As a consequence, we also propose Poisson approximations for the declumped count and the number of competing renewals.

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which infected individuals have different severities of disease (e.g. mildly and severely infected) and the severity of an infected individual depends on the severity of the individual he or she was infected by; typically, severe or mild infectives have an increased tendency to infect others severely or, respectively, mildly. Large-population properties of the model are derived, using branching process approximations for the initial stages of an outbreak and density-dependent population processes when a major outbreak occurs. The effects of vaccination are considered, using two distinct models for vaccine action. The consequences of launching a vaccination program are studied in terms of the effect it has on reducing the final size in the event of a major outbreak as a function of the vaccination coverage, and also by determining the critical vaccination coverage above which only small outbreaks can occur.

The target measure μ is the distribution of a random vector in a box ℬ, a Cartesian product of bounded intervals. The Gibbs sampler is a Markov chain with invariant measure μ. A ‘coupling from the past’ construction of the Gibbs sampler is used to show ergodicity of the dynamics and to perfectly simulate μ. An algorithm to sample vectors with multinormal distribution truncated to ℬ is then implemented.

We consider a constant rate traffic which shares a buffer with a random cross traffic. A first come first served or priority service discipline is applied at the buffer. After service at the first buffer the constant rate traffic moves to a play-out buffer. Both buffers provide service at constant rate and infinite waiting room. We investigate logarithmic large and moderate deviation asymptotics for the tail probabilities of the steady-state queue length distribution at the play-out buffer for long-range dependent cross traffic in critical loading. We characterize the asymptotic behavior of the cross traffic which leads to a large queue length at the play-out buffer and compare it to the one for renewal cross traffic.

In this paper we propose a new genetic algorithm specifically based on mutation and selection in order to maximize a fitness function. This mutation-selection algorithm behaves as a gradient algorithm which converges to local maxima. In order to obtain convergence to global maxima we propose a new algorithm which is built by randomly perturbing the selection operator of the gradient-like algorithm. The perturbation is controlled by only one parameter: that which allows the selection pressure to be governed. We use the Markov model of the perturbed algorithm to prove its convergence to global maxima. The arguments used in the proofs are based on Freidlin and Wentzell's (1984) theory and large deviation techniques also applied in simulated annealing. Our main results are that (i) when the population size is greater than a critical value, the control of the selection pressure ensures the convergence to the global maxima of the fitness function, and (ii) the convergence also occurs when the population is the smallest possible, i.e. 1.

Corrected random walk approximations to continuous-time optimal stopping boundaries for Brownian motion, first introduced by Chernoff and Petkau, have provided powerful computational tools in option pricing and sequential analysis. This paper develops the theory of these second-order approximations and describes some new applications.

A stack is a structural unit in an RNA structure that is formed by pairs of hydrogen bonded nucleotides. Paired nucleotides are scored according to their ability to hydrogen bond. We consider stack/hairpin-loop structures for a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with values in a finite alphabet, and we show how to obtain an asymptotic Poisson distribution of the number of stack/hairpin-loop structures with a score exceeding a high threshold, given that we count in a proper, declumped way. From this result we obtain an asymptotic Gumbel distribution of the maximal stack score. We also provide examples focusing on the computation of constants that enter in the asymptotic distributions. Finally, we discuss the close relation to existing results for local alignment.

This paper investigates new properties concerning the multifractal structure of a class of random self-similar measures. These measures include the well-known Mandelbrot multiplicative cascades, sometimes called independent random cascades. We evaluate the scale at which the multifractal structure of these measures becomes discernible. The value of this scale is obtained through what we call the growth speed in Hölder singularity sets of a Borel measure. This growth speed yields new information on the multifractal behavior of the rescaled copies involved in the structure of statistically self-similar measures. Our results are useful in understanding the multifractal nature of various heterogeneous jump processes.

Statistics denoting the numbers of success runs of length exactly equal and at least equal to a fixed length, as well as the sum of the lengths of success runs of length greater than or equal to a specific length, are considered. They are defined on both linearly and circularly ordered binary sequences, derived according to the Pólya-Eggenberger urn model. A waiting time associated with the sum of lengths statistic in linear sequences is also examined. Exact marginal and joint probability distribution functions are obtained in terms of binomial coefficients by a simple unified combinatorial approach. Mean values are also derived in closed form. Computationally tractable formulae for conditional distributions, given the number of successes in the sequence, useful in nonparametric tests of randomness, are provided. The distribution of the length of the longest success run and the reliability of certain consecutive systems are deduced using specific probabilities of the studied statistics. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results.