Branching processes are classical growth models in cell kinetics. In their construction, it is usually assumed that cell lifetimes are independent random variables, which has been proved false in experiments. Models of dependent lifetimes are considered here, in particular bifurcating Markov chains. Under the hypotheses of stationarity and multiplicative ergodicity, the corresponding branching process is proved to have the same type of asymptotics as its classic counterpart in the independent and identically distributed supercritical case: the cell population grows exponentially, the growth rate being related to the exponent of multiplicative ergodicity, in a similar way as to the Laplace transform of lifetimes in the i.i.d. case. An identifiable model for which the multiplicative ergodicity coefficients and the growth rate can be explicitly computed is proposed.

The drawdown process of a one-dimensional regular diffusion process X is given by X reflected at its running maximum. The drawup process is given by X reflected at its running minimum. We calculate the probability that a drawdown precedes a drawup in an exponential time-horizon. We then study the law of the occupation times of the drawdown process and the drawup process. These results are applied to address problems in risk analysis and for option pricing of the drawdown process. Finally, we present examples of Brownian motion with drift and three-dimensional Bessel processes, where we prove an identity in law.

We consider dynamic versions of the mutual information of lifetime distributions, with a focus on past lifetimes, residual lifetimes, and mixed lifetimes evaluated at different instants. This allows us to study multicomponent systems, by measuring the dependence in conditional lifetimes of two components having possibly different ages. We provide some bounds, and investigate the mutual information of residual lifetimes within the time-transformed exponential model (under both the assumptions of unbounded and truncated lifetimes). Moreover, with reference to the order statistics of a random sample, we evaluate explicitly the mutual information between the minimum and the maximum, conditional on inspection at different times, and show that it is distribution-free in a special case. Finally, we develop a copula-based approach aiming to express the dynamic mutual information for past and residual bivariate lifetimes in an alternative way.

For any strictly positive martingale S = eX for which X has a characteristic function, we provide an expansion for the implied volatility. This expansion is explicit in the sense that it involves no integrals, but only polynomials in the log-strike. We illustrate the versatility of our expansion by computing the approximate implied volatility smile in three well-known martingale models: one finite activity exponential Lévy model, Merton (1976), one infinite activity exponential Lévy model (variance gamma), and one stochastic volatility model, Heston (1993). Finally, we illustrate how our expansion can be used to perform a model-free calibration of the empirically observed implied volatility surface.

A random k-out mapping (digraph) on [n] is generated by choosing k random images of each vertex one at a time, subject to a 'preferential attachment' rule: the current vertex selects an image i with probability proportional to a given parameter α = α(n) plus the number of times i has already been selected. Intuitively, the larger α becomes, the closer the resulting k-out mapping is to the uniformly random k-out mapping. We prove that α = Θ(n1/2) is the threshold for α growing 'fast enough' to make the random digraph approach the uniformly random digraph in terms of the total variation distance. We also determine an exact limit for this distance for the α = βn1/2 case.

We prove strong convergence and asymptotic normality for the record and the weak record rate of observations of the form Yn = Xn + Tn, n ≥ 1, where (Xn)n ∈ Z is a stationary ergodic sequence of random variables and (Tn)n ≥ 1 is a stochastic trend process with stationary ergodic increments. The strong convergence result follows from the Dubins-Freedman law of large numbers and Birkhoff's ergodic theorem. For the asymptotic normality we rely on the approach of Ballerini and Resnick (1987), coupled with a moment bound for stationary sequences, which is used to deal with the random trend process. Examples of applications are provided. In particular, we obtain strong convergence and asymptotic normality for the number of ladder epochs in a random walk with stationary ergodic increments.

This paper demonstrates the occurrence of the feature called BRAVO (balancing reduces asymptotic variance of output) for the departure process of a finite-buffer Markovian many-server system in the QED (quality and efficiency-driven) heavy-traffic regime. The results are based on evaluating the limit of an equation for the asymptotic variance of death counts in finite birth-death processes.

Vertices arrive sequentially in space and are joined to existing vertices at random according to a preferential rule combining degree and spatial proximity. We investigate phase transitions in the resulting graph as the relative strengths of these two components of the attachment rule are varied.

Previous work of one of the authors showed that when the geometric component is weak, the limiting degree sequence mimics the standard Barabási-Albert preferential attachment model. We show that at the other extreme, in the case of a sufficiently strong geometric component, the limiting degree sequence mimics a purely geometric model, the on-line nearest-neighbour graph, for which we prove some extensions of known results. We also show the presence of an intermediate regime, with behaviour distinct from both the on-line nearest-neighbour graph and the Barabási-Albert model; in this regime, we obtain a stretched exponential upper bound on the degree sequence.

A large-scale service system with multiple customer classes and multiple server pools is considered, with the mean service time depending both on the customer class and server pool. The allowed activities (routeing choices) form a tree (in the graph with vertices being both customer classes and server pools). We study the behavior of the system under a leaf activity priority (LAP) policy, introduced by Stolyar and Yudovina (2012). An asymptotic regime is considered, where the arrival rate of customers and number of servers in each pool tend to ∞ in proportion to a scaling parameter r, while the overall system load remains strictly subcritical. We prove tightness of diffusion-scaled (centered at the equilibrium point and scaled down by r−1/2) invariant distributions. As a consequence, we obtain a limit interchange result: the limit of diffusion-scaled invariant distributions is equal to the invariant distribution of the limiting diffusion process.

We investigate the large deviation properties of the maximum likelihood estimators for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with shift. We propose a new approach to establish large deviation principles which allows us, via a suitable transformation, to circumvent the classical nonsteepness problem. We estimate simultaneously the drift and shift parameters. On the one hand, we prove a large deviation principle for the maximum likelihood estimates of the drift and shift parameters. Surprisingly, we find that the drift estimator shares the same large deviation principle as the estimator previously established for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process without shift. Sharp large deviation principles are also provided. On the other hand, we show that the maximum likelihood estimator of the shift parameter satisfies a large deviation principle with a very unusual implicit rate function.

Density dependent Markov population processes in large populations of size N were shown by Kurtz (1970), (1971) to be well approximated over finite time intervals by the solution of the differential equations that describe their average drift, and to exhibit stochastic fluctuations about this deterministic solution on the scale √N that can be approximated by a diffusion process. Here, motivated by an example from evolutionary biology, we are concerned with describing how such a process leaves an absorbing boundary. Initially, one or more of the populations is of size much smaller than N, and the length of time taken until all populations have sizes comparable to N then becomes infinite as N → ∞. Under suitable assumptions, we show that in the early stages of development, up to the time when all populations have sizes at least N1-α for 1/3 < α < 1, the process can be accurately approximated in total variation by a Markov branching process. Thereafter, it is well approximated by the deterministic solution starting from the original initial point, but with a random time delay. Analogous behaviour is also established for a Markov process approaching an equilibrium on a boundary, where one or more of the populations become extinct.

In this paper we investigate first passage percolation on an inhomogeneous random graph model introduced by Bollobás et al. (2007). Each vertex in the graph has a type from a type space, and edge probabilities are independent, but depend on the types of the end vertices. Each edge is given an independent exponential weight. We determine the distribution of the weight of the shortest path between uniformly chosen vertices in the giant component and show that the hopcount, i.e. the number of edges on this minimal-weight path, properly normalized, follows a central limit theorem. We handle the cases where the average number of neighbors λ̃n of a vertex tends to a finite λ̃ in full generality and consider λ̃ = ∞ under mild assumptions. This paper is a generalization of the paper of Bhamidi et al. (2011), where first passage percolation is explored on the Erdős-Rényi graphs.

In this paper we develop two permutation theorems on argument increasing functions of a multivariate random vector and a real parameter vector. We use the unified approach of our two theorems to provide some important theoretical results on the capital allocation in actuarial science, the deductible and upper limit allocations in insurance policy, and portfolio allocation in financial engineering. Our results successfully improve or extend the corresponding works in the literature.

We study optimal double stopping problems driven by a Brownian bridge. The objective is to maximize the expected spread between the payoffs achieved at the two stopping times. We study several cases where the solutions can be solved explicitly by strategies of a threshold type.

Nonlinear filtering is investigated in a system where both the signal system and the observation system are under non-Gaussian Lévy fluctuations. Firstly, the Zakai equation is derived, and it is further used to derive the Kushner-Stratonovich equation. Secondly, by a filtered martingale problem, uniqueness for strong solutions of the Kushner-Stratonovich equation and the Zakai equation is proved. Thirdly, under some extra regularity conditions, the Zakai equation for the unnormalized density is also derived in the case of α-stable Lévy noise.

For a collection of objects such as socks, which can be matched according to a characteristic such as color, we study the innocent phrase ‘the distribution of the color of a matching pair’ by looking at two methods for selecting socks. One method is memoryless and effectively samples socks with replacement, while the other samples socks sequentially, with memory, until the same color has been seen twice. We prove that these two methods yield the same distribution on colors if and only if the initial distribution of colors is a uniform distribution. We conjecture a nontrivial maximum value for the total variation distance of these distributions in all other cases.