Let , be i.i.d. random closed sets in . Limit theorems for their normalized convex hulls conv () are proved. The limiting distributions correspond to C-stable random sets. The random closed set A is called C-stable if, for any , the sets anA and conv ( coincide in distribution for certain positive an, compact Kn, and independent copies A1, …, An of A. The distributions of C-stable sets are characterized via corresponding containment functionals.

Various types of graph statistics for graphs and digraphs are presented as numerators of incomplete U-statistics, with symmetric and asymmetric kernels, respectively. Thus, asymptotic Poisson limits of these statistics are provided by using limit theorems for the sums of dissociated random variables. Several applications to statistical analysis of graphs are given.

There exists already a considerable literature about a mathematical approach to the description and control of malaria (see Ross (1911); Martini (1921); Lotka (1923); Moshkovskii (1950); Macdonald (1957), (1968)). This note gives an outline of the main assumptions of a simulation model which has been developed in close co-operation with epidemiologists, entomologists and immunologists in connection with a field project in Northern Nigeria where the necessary data for testing the model are being collected.

In modern medicine it becomes more and more urgent every year to solve new epidemiological problems. One of these is the evolution of resistance to antibiotics of a large spectrum of microorganisms; this resistance is a consequence of the mass administration of antibiotics. In this problem it becomes necessary to apply the mathematical methods of epidemic theory as here the key lies in a purely epidemiological factor, namely the mass character of the use of antibiotics. A first model of the phenomenon encountered is presented.

The object studied in this paper is a pair (Φ, Y), where Φ is a random surface in and Y a random vector field on . The pair is jointly stationary, i.e. its distribution is invariant under translations. The vector field Y is smooth outside Φ but may have discontinuities on Φ. Gauss' divergence theorem is applied to derive a flow conservation law for Y. For this specializes to a well-known rate conservation law for point processes. As an application, relationships for the linear contact distribution of Φ are derived.

The paper discusses the risk of ruin in insurance coverage of an epidemic in a closed population. The model studied is an extended susceptible–infective–removed (SIR) epidemic model built by Lefèvre and Simon (Methodology Comput. Appl. Prob.22, 2020) as a block-structured Markov process. A fluid component is then introduced to describe the premium amounts received and the care costs reimbursed by the insurance. Our interest is in the risk of collapse of the corresponding reserves of the company. The use of matrix-analytic methods allows us to determine the distribution of ruin time, the probability of ruin, and the final amount of reserves. The case where the reserves are subjected to a Brownian noise is also studied. Finally, some of the results obtained are illustrated for two particular standard SIR epidemic models.

We consider the asymptotic behaviour of a random walk when it exits from a symmetric region of the form {(x, n) :|x| ≤ rnb} as r → ∞. In order to be sure that this actually occurs, we treat only the case where the power b lies in the interval [0,½), and we further assume a condition that prevents the probability of exiting at either boundary tending to 0. Under these restrictions we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the pth moment of the overshoot to be O(rq), and for the overshoot to be tight, as r → ∞.

We present a stochastic model for the movement of a white blood cell both in uniform concentration of chemoattractant and in the presence of a chemoattractant gradient. It is assumed that the rotational velocity is proportional to the weighted difference of the occupied receptors in the two halves of the cell and that each of the receptors stays free or occupied for an exponential length of time. We define processes corresponding to a cell with 2nß + 1 receptors (receptor sites). In the case of constant concentration, we show that the limiting process for the rotational velocity is an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Its drift coefficient depends on the parameters of the exponential waiting times and its diffusion coefficient depends in addition also on the weight function. In the inhomogeneous case, the velocity process has a diffusion limit with drift coefficient depending on the concentration gradient and diffusion coefficient depending on the concentration and the weight function.

There are two ways of speeding up Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms: (a) construct more complex samplers that use gradient and higher-order information about the target and (b) design a control variate to reduce the asymptotic variance. While the efficiency of (a) as a function of dimension has been studied extensively, this paper provides the first results linking the efficiency of (b) with dimension. Specifically, we construct a control variate for a d-dimensional random walk Metropolis chain with an independent, identically distributed target using the solution of the Poisson equation for the scaling limit in [30]. We prove that the asymptotic variance of the corresponding estimator is bounded above by a multiple of $\log(d)/d$ over the spectral gap of the chain. The proof hinges on large deviations theory, optimal Young’s inequality and Berry–Esseen-type bounds. Extensions of the result to non-product targets are discussed.

A biphase image, representing the normal and degenerated fibres in a vertical cross-section of a nerve, is considered. A random set model based on a Gibbs point process is proposed for the union of the two phases. A kind of independence between the degeneration process and the original fibres is defined and tested.

In this paper, we consider a failure point process related to the Markovian arrival process defined by Neuts. We show that it converges in distribution to a homogeneous Poisson process. This convergence takes place in the context of rare occurrences of failures. We also provide a convergence rate of the convergence in total variation of this point process using an approach developed by Kabanov, Liptser and Shiryaev for the doubly stochastic Poisson process driven by a finite Markov process.

A stereological formula for the Euler number involving projections of the set in thin parallel slabs is considered. Sufficient conditions for the validity of this formula are derived.

In this paper we develop policies for scheduling dynamically arriving jobs to a broad class of parallel-processing queueing systems. We show that in heavy traffic the policies asymptotically minimize a measure of the expected system backlog, which we call system work. Our results yield succinct, closed-form expressions for optimal system work in heavy traffic.

We consider a random measure for which distribution is invariant under the action of a standard transformation group. The reduced moments are defined by applying classical theorems on invariant measure decomposition. We present a general method for constructing unbiased estimators of reduced moments. Several asymptotic results are established under an extension of the Brillinger mixing condition. Examples related to stochastic geometry are given.

In this paper we calculate posterior distributions associated with a version of the Poisson–Dirichlet distribution called the GEM. The GEM has been shown (by several authors) to be the limiting stationary distribution for allele frequencies listed in age order associated with the neutral infinite alleles model. In view of this result, we use our posterior distributions to calculate Bayes estimators for the frequency of the oldest allele given a sample.

For a random closed set X and a compact observation window W the mean coverage fraction of W can be estimated by measuring the area of W covered by X. Jensen and Gundersen, and Baddeley and Cruz-Orive described cases where a point counting estimator is more efficient than area measurement. We give two other examples, where at first glance unnatural estimators are not only better than the area measurement but by Grenander's Theorem have minimal variance. Whittle's Theorem is used to show that the point counting estimator in the original Jensen-Gundersen paradox is optimal for large randomly translated discs.

We consider an epidemic model where the spread of the epidemic can be described by a discrete-time Galton-Watson branching process. Between times n and n + 1, any infected individual is detected with unknown probability π and the numbers of these detected individuals are the only observations we have. Detected individuals produce a reduced number of offspring in the time interval of detection, and no offspring at all thereafter. If only the generation sizes of a Galton-Watson process are observed, it is known that one can only estimate the first two moments of the offspring distribution consistently on the explosion set of the process (and, apart from some lattice parameters, no parameters that are not determined by those moments). Somewhat surprisingly, in our context, where we observe a binomially distributed subset of each generation, we are able to estimate three functions of the parameters consistently. In concrete situations, this often enables us to estimate π consistently, as well as the mean number of offspring. We apply the estimators to data for a real epidemic of classical swine fever.

A simplified proof of Thorp and Walden's fundamental theorem of card counting is presented, and a corresponding central limit theorem is established. Results are applied to the casino game of trente et quarante, which was studied by Poisson and De Morgan.

Two species (designated by 0's and 1's) compete for territory on a lattice according to the rules of a voter model, except that the 0's jump d0 spaces and the 1's jump d1 spaces. When d0 = d1 = 1 the model is the usual voter model. It is shown that in one dimension, if d1 > d0 and d0 = 1,2 and initially there are infinitely many blocks of 1's of length ≥ d1, then the 1's eliminate the 0's. It is believed this may be true whenever d1 > d0. In the biased annihilating branching process particles place offspring on empty neighbouring sites at rate λ and neighbouring pairs of particles coalesce at rate 1. In one dimension it is known to converge to the product measure density λ/(1+λ) when λ ≥ 1/3, and the initial configuration is non-zero and finite. This result is extended to λ ≥ 0.0347. Bounds on the edge-speed are given.