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The chapter explains how the centrist Christian Democratic Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) has responded to the challenges of the silent revolution and counter-revolution by demonstrating a selective willingness to cooperate with the populist radical right Freedom Party (FPÖ). Sufficient electoral distress led to the installation of new leaders who were able to change the strategic status quo. In the first instance, in 1995 Wolfgang Schüssel emphasized policy-seeking and in the second case Sebastian Kurz pursed vote-seeking. Both strategies resulted in a positional alignment and eventually a coalition with the FPÖ, which at the time was pursuing office. Changes in the ÖVP depended on shifts in the balance of power among important intra-party groups, specifically, hardline Conservatives and market Liberals viewing cooperation with the FPÖ as advantageous for their respective interests. Overall, the chapter concludes that while the ÖVP has been affected by massive voter de-alignment since the 1980s, it responded to the counter-revolution and the resulting surge of nativist populism mainly by means of emulation and cooperation.
This chapter maps the development of the electorate of the mainstream right (and its subfamilies) in Western Europe between 2002 and 2016 based on the European Social Survey. It does so in terms of sociodemographics (education, income, occupation, age and gender) and attitudes (immigration, European integration, moral issues and redistribution). Special attention is given to factors setting the mainstream right electorate apart from that of the populist radical right. The chapter shows that the mainstream right electorate has a rather stable and broad social base, (still) characterized above all by (higher status) occupations and income levels rather than by education. In terms of attitudes, too, economic conservativism remains a stronger predictor than views on cultural issues. These and other chapter findings suggest that, despite underlying shifts in Western European social structure and party competition, the mainstream right’s electoral coalition shows a relatively high level of resilience.
This chapter analyses Spain’s mainstream conservative party, the Popular Party (PP). Of the two revolutions analysed in the book – the silent and silent counter-revolutions – the Popular Party only confronted the former for several decades. In general, it adapted to a more liberal society by moderating to capture centrist voters in the 1990s without losing far right voters, thereby remaining hegemonic on the right. Midway through the subsequent decade, Spain’s two main parties, the Socialist PSOE and PP, moved further apart on post-materialist and centre–periphery issues. Today, PP is severely weakened and ideologically sandwiched between two right-wing party challengers, the more centrist Citizens and the far right Vox. This political fragmentation is due to a favourable opportunity structure for the rise of new parties after 2010 – related to the Great Recession, political corruption and the push for independence in Catalonia. In this context, PP was unable to retain its diverse electorate. It now confronts dilemmas similar to those of many of its European counterparts, and the party’s initial response to the rise of Vox was to move rightward and accommodate it as an ally.
The 2018 general elections marked a major defeat for the mainstream right in Italy. Scoring a mere 14 per cent, Forza Italia (Go Italy, FI) lost its primacy over the centre-right coalition. Excluded from the national government, the mainstream right finds itself – for the first time since 1994 – in a minority position within Italy’s political right. To understand whether this transformation reflects the tension faced by the mainstream right in coping with the silent revolution and counter-revolution, and with the migration policy challenge, this chapter reconstructs the relationship between the different components of the Italian centre-right over the past twenty-five years (1994-2018). Focusing on Berlusconi’s personalistic parties, its right-wing (populist) partners and Christian democratic allies, the chapter accounts for the demand-side and supply-side evolution of the Italian centre-right. The analyses point to the crucial role played by the issue of migration in shaping right-wing politics in Italy.
The German Christian Democrats are one of the most successful parties of the mainstream right in post-war Europe. They have held the Chancellor’s office for approximately forty-nine years, compared with just short of twenty years for the Social Democrats (SPD), their primary opponents on the mainstream left. Although the silent revolution eventually pulled the Christian Democrats to the left as the party followed public opinion, its primary contribution has been to cause fragmentation on the left. This fragmentation has meant that the left side of the political spectrum has been weaker overall. German unification also contributed to left-party fragmentation, helping the Christian Democrats to dominate politics. The silent counter-revolution, on the other hand, has been unusually weak in Germany. This weakness meant that the Christian Democrats did not face much of a threat from the right side of the political spectrum. The combination of a strong silent revolution fragmenting the political left and a weak counter silent-revolution minimizing a threat from the right has contributed to the long-term success of the German Christian Democrats.
The 2017 French presidential and legislative elections constituted a crisis point for the mainstream right. Since the mid-1980s, the mainstream right had proved remarkably adept at exploiting the political opportunity structure of the French political system, balancing the centripetal forces of the silent revolution with the centrifugal pull of the silent counter-revolution. This chapter analyses how the conservative Gaullists and their centre-right liberal coalition partners constituted competing but stable bloc components within France’s two-round majoritarian electoral system, while pursuing weak accommodative strategies vis-à-vis the FN. The absence of an effective competitor ensured that the Gaullists’ increasing encroachment upon the centre-right’s support, culminating in the formation of the UMP in 2002, did not threaten the bloc’s stability. Conversely, from 2007 onwards, a more conservative mainstream right faced challenges from both the populist radical right, reviving silent counter-revolution values which were again salient in the wake of the economic crisis, and renewed centrist formations which were largely accepting of progressive silent revolution cultural values.
Using Voting Advice Application (VAA) data from the EU Profiler/euandi Trend File, we studied how parties’ positions towards European integration relate to their positions on other important issues, and how this varies across EP elections, and between European regions. We hypothesized that the association between parties’ EU-integration positions and their positions on other issues was affected by the three major crises that hit the European Union (EU) between 2009 and 2019: the economic, migration, and climate crises. Additionally, we hypothesized that the economic and migration crises asymmetrically affected the association between cultural and economic issues on the one hand and the EU dimension on the other across the EU’s three macro regions (NWE, SE, and CEE). Our results show that neither the economic crisis nor the migration crisis or the climate crisis had an EU-wide impact on how European integration relates to other issue dimensions. As we hypothesized, economic issues were particularly strongly linked to EU-integration positions in SE in 2014, but our results additionally indicated that the longstanding interpretation of EU integration as a mainly economic issue in SE diminished after the start of the migration crisis. Finally, EU integration became related to immigration issues in CEE while this is not the case in the other regions. The main takeaway is that EU integration is interpreted differently by parties across the EU, which is important to recognize for parties that seek to work together in transnational party groups, and for scholars that aim to understand EU policy making.
In spite of the fact that Conservative, Christian democratic and Liberal parties continue to play a crucial role in the democratic politics and governance of every Western European country, they are rarely paid the attention they deserve. This cutting-edge comparative collection, combining qualitative case studies with large-N quantitative analysis, reveals a mainstream right squeezed by the need to adapt to both 'the silent revolution' that has seen the spread of postmaterialist, liberal and cosmopolitan values and the backlash against those values – the 'silent counter-revolution' that has brought with it the rise of a myriad far right parties offering populist and nativist answers to many of the continent's thorniest political problems. What explains why some mainstream right parties seem to be coping with that challenge better than others? And does the temptation to ride the populist wave rather than resist it ultimately pose a danger to liberal democracy?
A hegemonic power can guarantee the status quo in an international economic system. However, domestic or international changes may unsettle a hegemon’s priorities. In such phases, smaller states benefiting from the existing system may fear that the hegemon will fail to keep the system stable. How do they react if they lose trust in the hegemon’s ability or will to maintain the status quo? This article argues that in such cases, free riding becomes less rewarding. Therefore, smaller states build publicly visible coalitions to ‘voice’ their preferences. Applying this argument to the role of small ‘creditor states’ in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the article draws on original in-depth interviews to analyze the ‘New Hanseatic League’ as a strategy to defend the present euro regime and counterbalance the Franco–German tandem. By elaborating and tracing a fine-grained causal mechanism, the article thus explains the emergence of vocal small-state coalitions in a hegemonic environment.
In this paper, we focus on the completion of a government reintegration program in Colombia for former non-state armed actors, such as rebel forces and militias, in the post-conflict period. As the members of these groups lay down their arms and return to a peaceful existence, the effectiveness of their transition to ‘normal’ lives can be critical in preventing the re-emergence of conflict and violence. Former combatants face numerous challenges and hardships such as criminal violence, political violence, economic hardship that, if not properly addressed, may increase the likelihood that some of them become involved in criminal work, political violence, or other activities that undermine peace. We develop a theory of the impact of violence and insecurity challenges facing former, non-state armed actors (henceforth, ANSAs). We suggest that the numerous challenges involved in leading a normal life under conditions of abnormal security will likely make successful completion of government reintegration programs more difficult for ANSAs. We also consider and account for the powerful effects of gender and family in the successful completion of a reintegration program. We test our theoretical model on the successful completion of a government reintegration program in Colombia, and test our hypotheses on a large database of ANSAs. We find support for our hypotheses, as well as social factors that greatly influenced the likelihood of successful completion of the Colombian government’s reintegration program.
Why are democracies backsliding? I contend that a large productivity gap between economic groups motivates those with low productivity to capture the state for rent-seeking. They assess their relative position as weak and are willing to sacrifice certain democratic guarantees in exchange for favorable policies. Erosion takes two forms. (1) With high inter-class inequality and a large productivity gap among economic industries, losing economic elites capture the state through a political outsider who enacts favorable policy. Once in office, the outsider expands his personal executive control and attacks key democratic veto players. (2) When inter-class inequality is high but the inter-industry productivity gap is small, a united economic elite coordinate to stop a populist takeover. Traditional political elites respond to the populist threat by curtailing basic freedoms of speech and association. I use both quantitative and case study evidence from the US and Spain to support my main hypotheses.
For the past decade, populist left- and right-wing parties have been on the rise in Europe. Yet, there are only a few studies on the internal organizational dynamics of these parties. Drawing on a new and unique data from fieldwork observations and interviews with party members from the Alternative for Germany (AfD), this article examines the internal democratic mechanisms in policy formation. The AfD displays a high degree of internal participation – an important but contrasting addition to the comparative research on radical right parties, which fail to sustain a democratic internal organization and consistently adopt mechanisms to centralize power in the leadership. The findings from this field research suggest that populist parties may actually engage in meaningful intra-party democracy and internal deliberative practices to invigorate the connections between citizens and their party representatives.
Support for social distancing measures was, globally, high at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic but increasingly came under pressure. Focusing on the UK, this article provides a rigorous exploration of the drivers of public support for social distancing at their formative stage, via mixed methods. Synthesizing insights from crisis management and securitization theory, thematic analysis is employed to map the main frames promoted by the government and other actors on the nature/severity, blame/responsibility, and appropriate response to the pandemic, which ‘follows the science’. The impact of these on public attitudes is examined via a series of regression analyses, drawing on a representative survey of the UK population (n = 2100). Findings challenge the prevailing understanding that support for measures is driven by personal health considerations, socio-economic circumstances, and political influences. Instead, crisis framing dynamics, which the government is well-positioned to dominate, have the greatest impact on driving public attitudes.
Why do parties change candidate lists between elections? Although candidate list volatility is an important indicator of the responsiveness of electoral representation, it has received little attention in research. We offer a critical case study of party list volatility in Finland, using a candidate-centred open-list proportional (PR) electoral system with ideal conditions for ‘ultra-strategic’ party behaviour. Our explorative two-stage research design begins with party elite interviews, to extract factors that can affect list volatility, which in the following step are tested in a regression analysis of 564 party lists in parliamentary elections 1983–2019. Our results show that list formation is a complex phenomenon, where demand and supply factors interact in a contingent fashion. Following trends of voter dealignment, personalization and ‘electoral-professionalization’ of parties, volatility has increased over time. Electoral defeats and declining party membership increase volatility, but a member-driven mass-party heritage that limits party elites’ strategic capacity has a stabilizing effect.