The full-information duration problem with a random number N of objects is considered. These objects appear sequentially and their values Xk are observed, where Xk, independent of N, are independent and identically distributed random variables from a known continuous distribution. The objective of the problem is to find a stopping rule that maximizes the duration of holding a relative maximum (e.g. the kth object is a relative maximum if Xk = max{X1, X2, . . ., Xk}). We assume that N is a random variable with a known upper bound n, so two models, Model 1 and Model 2, can be considered according to whether the planning horizon is N or n. The structure of the optimal rule, which depends on the prior distribution assumed on N, is examined. The monotone rule is defined and a necessary and sufficient condition for the optimal rule to be monotone is given for both models. Special attention is paid to the class of priors such that N / n converges, as n → ∞, to a random variable Vm having density fVm(v) = m(1 - v)m-1, 0 ≤ v ≤ 1 for a positive integer m. An interesting feature is that the optimal duration (relative to n) for Model 2 is just (m + 1) times as large as that for Model 1 asymptotically.

We study the distribution Ex[exp(-q∫0t1(a,b)(Xs)ds); Xt ∈ dy], where -∞ ≤ a < b < ∞, and where q, t > 0 and x ∈ R for a spectrally negative Lévy process X. More precisely, we identify the Laplace transform with respect to t of this measure in terms of the scale functions of the underlying process. Our results are then used to price step options and the particular case of an exponential spectrally negative Lévy jump-diffusion model is discussed.

We provide exact computations for the drift of random walks in dependent random environments, including k-dependent and moving average environments. We show how the drift can be characterized and evaluated using Perron–Frobenius theory. Comparing random walks in various dependent environments, we demonstrate that their drifts can exhibit interesting behavior that depends significantly on the dependency structure of the random environment.

We propose a novel theoretical characterization of the optimal 'Gittins index' policy in multi-armed bandit problems with non-Gaussian, infinitely divisible reward distributions. We first construct a continuous-time, conditional Lévy process which probabilistically interpolates the sequence of discrete-time rewards. When the rewards are Gaussian, this approach enables an easy connection to the convenient time-change properties of a Brownian motion. Although no such device is available in general for the non-Gaussian case, we use optimal stopping theory to characterize the value of the optimal policy as the solution to a free-boundary partial integro-differential equation (PIDE). We provide the free-boundary PIDE in explicit form under the specific settings of exponential and Poisson rewards. We also prove continuity and monotonicity properties of the Gittins index in these two problems, and discuss how the PIDE can be solved numerically to find the optimal index value of a given belief state.

The problem of pricing arithmetic Asian options is nontrivial, and has attracted much interest over the last two decades. This paper provides a method for calculating bounds on option prices and approximations to option deltas in a market where the underlying asset follows a geometric Lévy process. The core idea is to find a highly correlated, yet more tractable proxy to the event that the option finishes in-the-money. The paper provides a means for calculating the joint characteristic function of the underlying asset and proxy processes, and relies on Fourier methods to compute prices and deltas. Numerical studies show that the lower bound provides accurate approximations to prices and deltas, while the upper bound provides good though less accurate results.

We discuss simulation of sensitivities or Greeks of multi-asset European style options under a special Lévy process model: that is, the subordinated Brownian motion model. The Malliavin calculus method combined with Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods is used in the simulations. Greeks are expressed in terms of the expectations of the option payoff functions multiplied by the weights involving Malliavin derivatives for multi-asset options. Numerical results show that the Malliavin calculus method is usually more efficient than the finite difference method for options with nonsmooth payoffs. The superiority of the former method over the latter is even more significant when both are combined with quasi-Monte Carlo methods.

We introduce a new model of competition on growing networks. This extends the preferential attachment model, with the key property that node choices evolve simultaneously with the network. When a new node joins the network, it chooses neighbours by preferential attachment, and selects its type based on the number of initial neighbours of each type. The model is analysed in detail, and in particular, we determine the possible proportions of the various types in the limit of large networks. An important qualitative feature we find is that, in contrast to many current theoretical models, often several competitors will coexist. This matches empirical observations in many real-world networks.

We present some correlated fractional counting processes on a finite-time interval. This will be done by considering a slight generalization of the processes in Borges et al. (2012). The main case concerns a class of space-time fractional Poisson processes and, when the correlation parameter is equal to 0, the univariate distributions coincide with those of the space-time fractional Poisson process in Orsingher and Polito (2012). On the one hand, when we consider the time fractional Poisson process, the multivariate finite-dimensional distributions are different from those presented for the renewal process in Politi et al. (2011). We also consider a case concerning a class of fractional negative binomial processes.

Superposition is a mapping on point configurations that sends the n-tuple into the n-point configuration , counted with multiplicity. It is an additive set operation such that the superposition of a k-point configuration in is a kn-point configuration in . A Poisson superposition process is the superposition in of a Poisson process in the space of finite-length -valued sequences. From properties of Poisson processes as well as some algebraic properties of formal power series, we obtain an explicit expression for the Janossy measure of Poisson superposition processes, and we study their law under domain restriction. Examples of well-known Poisson superposition processes include compound Poisson, negative binomial, and permanental (boson) processes.

In an optimal variance stopping problem the goal is to determine the stopping time at which the variance of a sequentially observed stochastic process is maximized. A solution method for such a problem has been recently provided by Pedersen (2011). Using the methodology developed by Pedersen and Peskir (2012), our aim is to show that the solution to the initial problem can be equivalently obtained by constraining the variance stopping problem to the expected size of the stopped process and then by maximizing the solution to the latter problem over all the admissible constraints. An application to a diffusion process used for modeling the dynamics of interest rates illustrates the proposed technique.

The Ginibre point process (GPP) is one of the main examples of determinantal point processes on the complex plane. It is a recurring distribution of random matrix theory as well as a useful model in applied mathematics. In this paper we briefly overview the usual methods for the simulation of the GPP. Then we introduce a modified version of the GPP which constitutes a determinantal point process more suited for certain applications, and we detail its simulation. This modified GPP has the property of having a fixed number of points and having its support on a compact subset of the plane. See Decreusefond et al. (2013) for an extended version of this paper.

Shot-noise processes are used in applied probability to model a variety of physical systems in, for example, teletraffic theory, insurance and risk theory, and in the engineering sciences. In this paper we prove a large deviation principle for the sample-paths of a general class of multidimensional state-dependent Poisson shot-noise processes. The result covers previously known large deviation results for one-dimensional state-independent shot-noise processes with light tails. We use the weak convergence approach to large deviations, which reduces the proof to establishing the appropriate convergence of certain controlled versions of the original processes together with relevant results on existence and uniqueness.

This paper concerns the asymptotic behavior of a random variable Wλ resulting from the summation of the functionals of a Gibbsian spatial point process over windows Qλ ↑ ℝd. We establish conditions ensuring that Wλ has volume order fluctuations, i.e. they coincide with the fluctuations of functionals of Poisson spatial point processes. We combine this result with Stein's method to deduce rates of a normal approximation for Wλ as λ → ∞. Our general results establish variance asymptotics and central limit theorems for statistics of random geometric and related Euclidean graphs on Gibbsian input. We also establish a similar limit theory for claim sizes of insurance models with Gibbsian input, the number of maximal points of a Gibbsian sample, and the size of spatial birth-growth models with Gibbsian input.

We give an account of the characteristics that result from reflecting a drifting local martingale (i.e. the sum of a local martingale and a multiple of its quadratic variation process) in 0 and b > 0. We present conditions which guarantee the existence of finite moments of what is required to keep the reflected process within its boundaries. Also, we derive an associated law of large numbers and a central limit theorem which apply when the input is continuous. Similar results for integrals of the paths of the reflected process are also presented. These results are in close agreement to what has previously been shown for Brownian motion.

It is well known that the central limit theorem holds for partial sums of a stationary sequence (Xi) of m-dependent random variables with finite variance; however, the limit may be degenerate with variance 0 even if var(Xi) ≠ 0. We show that this happens only in the case when Xi – EXi = Yi – Yi–1 for an (m − 1)-dependent stationary sequence (Yi) with finite variance (a result implicit in earlier results), and give a version for block factors. This yields a simple criterion that is a sufficient condition for the limit not to be degenerate. Two applications to subtree counts in random trees are given.

Fractional Lévy processes generalize fractional Brownian motion in a natural way. We go a step further and extend the usual fractional Riemann-Liouville kernel to a regularly varying function. We call the resulting stochastic processes generalized fractional Lévy processes (GFLPs) and show that they may have short or long memory increments and that their sample paths may have jumps or not. Moreover, we define stochastic integrals with respect to a GFLP and investigate their second-order structure and sample path properties. A specific example is the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a time-scaled GFLP. We prove a functional central limit theorem for such scaled processes with a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as a limit process. This approximation applies to a wide class of stochastic volatility models, which include models where possibly neither the data nor the latent volatility process are semimartingales.

We derive Laplace transform identities for the volume content of random stopping sets based on Poisson point processes. Our results are based on anticipating Girsanov identities for Poisson point processes under a cyclic vanishing condition for a finite difference gradient. This approach does not require classical assumptions based on set-indexed martingales and the (partial) ordering of index sets. The examples treated focus on stopping sets in finite volume, and include the random missed volume of Poisson convex hulls.

We study optimal double stopping problems driven by a Brownian bridge. The objective is to maximize the expected spread between the payoffs achieved at the two stopping times. We study several cases where the solutions can be solved explicitly by strategies of a threshold type.

We prove strong convergence and asymptotic normality for the record and the weak record rate of observations of the form Yn = Xn + Tn, n ≥ 1, where (Xn)n ∈ Z is a stationary ergodic sequence of random variables and (Tn)n ≥ 1 is a stochastic trend process with stationary ergodic increments. The strong convergence result follows from the Dubins-Freedman law of large numbers and Birkhoff's ergodic theorem. For the asymptotic normality we rely on the approach of Ballerini and Resnick (1987), coupled with a moment bound for stationary sequences, which is used to deal with the random trend process. Examples of applications are provided. In particular, we obtain strong convergence and asymptotic normality for the number of ladder epochs in a random walk with stationary ergodic increments.

As a class of optimal stopping problems with monotone thresholds, we define the candidate-choice problem (CCP) and derive two formulae for calculating its expected payoff. We apply the first formula to a particular CCP, i.e. the best-choice duration problem treated by Ferguson et al. (1992). The recall case is also examined as a comparison. We also derive the distribution of the stopping time of the CCP and find, as a by-product, that the best-choice problem has a remarkable feature in that the optimal probability of choosing the best is just the expected value of the (proportional) stopping time. The similarity between the best-choice duration problem and the best-choice problem with uniform freeze studied by Samuel-Cahn (1996) is recognized.