Introduction: Setting my sights

In the context of corporate research, questions of foresight and oversight are always present. But there are different ways to address them. From a theoretical point of view, many of the issues are clear. From a practical point of view, however, attempts to discern unfolding technological and social trajectories are always clouded by what I call “the fog of reality.” What I'd like to do in this chapter is take the practical rather than theoretical road and address the topic of foresight and oversight from my practical experience of life in the fog.

In particular, I'd like to talk about ways in which the fog is getting thicker. This is because the game of corporate research is itself changing even as we play it. (One of the changes, as I hope to make clear, is that we in the labs can no longer afford to regard the rest of the corporation as the opposing team!) Rapid and continuous changes are making it inevitable that we not only learn to live with the fog of reality, but that we learn to thrive on it – and I'll try to suggest some ways we're trying to do that.

From my own experience, however, I don't think oversight and foresight can be discussed without first introducing another “sight” and that is “hindsight.” Corporate research is a ripe field for Monday morning quarterbacks telling the players what they should have seen and done.