Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- About the editor
- List of contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 The art and science of large-scale disasters
- 3 Multiscale modeling for large-scale disaster applications
- 4 Addressing the root causes of large-scale disasters
- 5 Issues in disaster relief logistics
- 6 Large-scale disasters: perspectives on medical response
- 7 Augmentation of health care capacity in large-scale disasters
- 8 Energy, climate change, and how to avoid a manmade disaster
- 9 Seawater agriculture for energy, warming, food, land, and water
- 10 Natural and anthropogenic aerosol-related hazards affecting megacities
- 11 Tsunamis: manifestation and aftermath
- 12 Intermediate-scale dynamics of the upper troposphere and stratosphere
- 13 Coupled weather–chemistry modeling
- 14 Seasonal-to-decadal prediction using climate models: successes and challenges
- 15 Climate change and related disasters
- 16 Impact of climate change on precipitation
- 17 Weather-related disasters in arid lands
- 18 The first hundred years of numerical weather prediction
- 19 Fundamental issues in numerical weather prediction
- 20 Space measurements for disaster response: the International Charter
- 21 Weather satellite measurements: their use for prediction
- Epilogue
- Index
18 - The first hundred years of numerical weather prediction
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 October 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- About the editor
- List of contributors
- 1 Introduction
- 2 The art and science of large-scale disasters
- 3 Multiscale modeling for large-scale disaster applications
- 4 Addressing the root causes of large-scale disasters
- 5 Issues in disaster relief logistics
- 6 Large-scale disasters: perspectives on medical response
- 7 Augmentation of health care capacity in large-scale disasters
- 8 Energy, climate change, and how to avoid a manmade disaster
- 9 Seawater agriculture for energy, warming, food, land, and water
- 10 Natural and anthropogenic aerosol-related hazards affecting megacities
- 11 Tsunamis: manifestation and aftermath
- 12 Intermediate-scale dynamics of the upper troposphere and stratosphere
- 13 Coupled weather–chemistry modeling
- 14 Seasonal-to-decadal prediction using climate models: successes and challenges
- 15 Climate change and related disasters
- 16 Impact of climate change on precipitation
- 17 Weather-related disasters in arid lands
- 18 The first hundred years of numerical weather prediction
- 19 Fundamental issues in numerical weather prediction
- 20 Space measurements for disaster response: the International Charter
- 21 Weather satellite measurements: their use for prediction
- Epilogue
- Index
Summary
Modern weather prediction is one of the best tools available to reduce the losses of life and property due to extreme weather events at sea, in the air, and on land. The success rate attained by modern forecasting systems is the result of more than 100 years of complex and often dramatic developments linking the technology with the advancements in theoretical meteorology and physics. A general overview of the process that leads from initial empirical predictions to modern-day forecasting systems is presented. We briefly outline the major conceptual aspects and the profiles of the crucial personalities on the meteorological scene. This chapter concludes with general remarks concerning the future of the predictive meteorological models, including their potential use in geoengineering and climate control.
Forecasting before equations
Initial attempts to predict droughts, flooding, harvests, plagues, wars, strong wind, ocean currents, and positions of the moon and planets started at the dawn of human civilization with methods that are now either forgotten or discredited for the lack of rational foundation. The examination of the annals of science shows that many philosophers and scientists entertained different aspects of forecasting the state of the environment. The first quantitative basis for the environmental prediction was created within the framework of the reality characteristic of the Cartesian-Galilean science, and that of the empiricist and rationalist philosophies of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.
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- Chapter
- Information
- Large-Scale DisastersPrediction, Control, and Mitigation, pp. 427 - 446Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2008
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