Modern weather prediction is one of the best tools available to reduce the losses of life and property due to extreme weather events at sea, in the air, and on land. The success rate attained by modern forecasting systems is the result of more than 100 years of complex and often dramatic developments linking the technology with the advancements in theoretical meteorology and physics. A general overview of the process that leads from initial empirical predictions to modern-day forecasting systems is presented. We briefly outline the major conceptual aspects and the profiles of the crucial personalities on the meteorological scene. This chapter concludes with general remarks concerning the future of the predictive meteorological models, including their potential use in geoengineering and climate control.

Forecasting before equations

Initial attempts to predict droughts, flooding, harvests, plagues, wars, strong wind, ocean currents, and positions of the moon and planets started at the dawn of human civilization with methods that are now either forgotten or discredited for the lack of rational foundation. The examination of the annals of science shows that many philosophers and scientists entertained different aspects of forecasting the state of the environment. The first quantitative basis for the environmental prediction was created within the framework of the reality characteristic of the Cartesian-Galilean science, and that of the empiricist and rationalist philosophies of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.