This study assesses the economic and environmental effects to hog finishing farms from residual taxes/standards and restrictions on manure application and stocking density. Economic effects are measured in terms of net farm income and land prices, while levels of ammonia and excess nitrogen and phosphorus proxy the environmental effects. Any environmental policy requiring the need for additional land comes at a small cost to farmers who have access to adequate neighboring land. If this is not the case, then manure application and stocking density restrictions are expensive since the producer is basically forced to either purchase land or reduce hog production levels.

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naïve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.