Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T07:13:25.045Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2015

Christopher J. Zakrzewicz ,
B. Wade Brorsen  and
Brian C. Briggeman
Christopher J. Zakrzewicz
Affiliation:
Stampede I Redwolf Farms, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
B. Wade Brorsen
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma
Brian C. Briggeman
Affiliation:
Arthur Capper Cooperative Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naïve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.

Keywords

agricultureforecastingland valuequalitativeG21Q14
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 45 , Issue 1 , February 2013 , pp. 159 - 170
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2013

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bessler, D.A., and Ruffley, R.. “Prequential Analysis of Stock Market Returns.” Applied Economics 36,5(2006):399–412.Google Scholar
Brier, G.W. “Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability.” Monthly Weather Review 78,1(1950):1–3.10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;22.0.CO;2>Google Scholar
Burt, O.R. “Econometric Modeling of the Capitalization Formula for Farmland Prices.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68(1986):10–26.10.2307/1241645Google Scholar
Covey, T. 1999a. “Bankers' Forecasts of Farmland Value.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. Chicago, IL. Internet site: http://www.farmdoc.Illinois.edu/nccc134/conf_1999/pdf/confp28-99.pdf. Accessed October 2012.Google Scholar
Covey, T. “Evaluating Bankers' Probability Forecasts of Intermediate-Term Loan Rates.” Presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Louisville, TN, February 1, 1999b.Google Scholar
Diebold, EX., and Lopez, J.A.. “Forecast Evaluation and Combination.” Handbook of Statistics 4(1996):241–68.Google Scholar
Falk, B. “Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73,1(1991):1–10.10.2307/124287712345424Google Scholar
Falk, B., and Lee, B.. “Fads versus Fundamentals in Farmland Prices.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80,4(1998):696–707.10.2307/1244057Google Scholar
Goodwin, B.K., and Mishra, A.K.. “What's Wrong with Our Models of Agricultural Land Values?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85,3(2003):744–52.10.1111/1467-8276.00479Google Scholar
Henderson, J., and Akers, M.. “Despite Low Incomes, Farmland Values Rise Further.” Survey of Tenth District Agricultural Credit Conditions. Federal Reserve Bank. Second quarter, 2010.Google Scholar
Just, R.E., and Miranowski, J.A.. “Understanding Farmland Price Changes.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75(1993):156–68.10.2307/1242964Google Scholar
Keeton, W.R., and Verba, M.. “What Can Regional Manufacturing Surveys Tell Us?—Lessons from the Tenth District.” Economic Review: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 89(2004):39–70.Google Scholar
Melichar, E. “Capital Gains versus Current Income in the Farming Sector.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61(1979):1085–92.10.2307/3180381Google Scholar
Pope, R.D., Kramer, R.A., Green, R.D., and Gardner, B.D.. “An Evaluation of Econometric Models of Farmland U.S. Prices.” Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 4(1979):107–19.Google Scholar
Yates, J.F. “External Correspondence: Decompositions of the Mean Probability Score.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 30,1(1982):132–56.10.1016/0030-5073(82)90237-9Google Scholar
Yates, J.F. “Analyzing the Accuracy of Probability Judgments for Multiple Events: An Extension of the Covariance Decomposition.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 41,3(1988):281–99.10.1016/0749-5978(88)90031-3Google Scholar
Zakrewicz, C.J. “Measures and Forecasts of Agricultural Land Values.” MS thesis, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 2010.Google Scholar