The Fermi paradox points to the apparent contradiction between the idea that the emergence of life and civilization on Earth is an objective process following the general rules of Nature and that there are no visible signs of other civilizations beyond Earth. The Fermi paradox is widely discussed in astronomical, biological and other natural sciences but almost totally ignored by social sciences, even though more than half of known explanations deal with intentions and behaviours of extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) or social aspects of the evolution of technological civilizations. The article analyses the problem and possible solutions to the Fermi paradox from the perspective of social sciences. In this article I argue that the Fermi paradox is primarily a social science problem, and the most plausible solutions have to contain some form of social science explanations. Three types of explanations are discussed, namely, those related to ETCs’ intentions, capacities and the consequences of their decisions and activities. I argue that attempts to explain the paradox by referring to specific goals and motives of ETCs are the least plausible. Arguments related to the capacities and consequences are more solid but do not convincingly solve the paradox. I conclude that the Fermi paradox is an important problem for social sciences whether ETCs exist or not, and it should attract greater attention from social scientists.

A few dozens of solutions to the Fermi paradox have been proposed in the past. The most relevant ones will be concisely discussed in this paper. They will be classified as follows: exceptionality solutions, annihilation solutions and communication barrier solutions. The argument will be advanced that all existing resolutions to the Fermi paradox are in their essence anthropocentric. The epistemological groundwork of anthropocentrism will be discussed. Conversely, in this paper, a non-anthropocentric solution to the Fermi paradox will be proposed: the ‘lasting human epistemological limitations solution’. This resolution to the Fermi paradox acknowledges that human epistemological capacities are limited to the degree that not only extraterrestrial forms of life may be unobservable to the human perceptive apparatus, but that universes may exist around humans with forms of life, inorganic matter or entities of any other type that humans are incapable of perceiving. In light of the revolutionary developments in theoretical physics, it is likely that in the future these developments will be reflected in increasingly non-anthropocentric solutions to the Fermi paradox.

Recent astrophysical findings suggest that the era during which the Universe is habitable has just begun. This raises the question whether the entire Universe may at some point in the future be filled with intelligent life. Hanson et al. (2021, The Astrophysical Journal 922, 182) argued that we can be confident that the Universe will, by cosmic standards, soon be dominated by imperialist civilizations which expand rapidly, persist long and make drastic changes to the volumes they control. The main motivation for this ‘grabby civilizations’ hypothesis is that it supposedly provides a good explanation of why we are so early in cosmic history. In this paper, we criticize this motivation and suggest that it fails, for reasons analogous to why the notorious Doomsday argument fails. In the last part of the paper we broaden our discussion and argue that it may be rational to assign a rather low prior probability to the grabby civilizations hypothesis. For instance, if there are any civilizations that expand rapidly and indefinitely, they may well not make any drastic changes to the volumes they inhabit, potentially for strategic reasons. Hence, we call for epistemic caution and humility regarding the question of the long-term evolution of intelligence in the Universe.

A formalization of Fermi paradox inside the environment of classical propositional logic is proposed. The notion of Silentium Universi set is launched in order to establish that the Fermi paradox is truly paradoxical. Combining consistent explanatory hypotheses is taken into consideration and discussed inside this framework explaining what would count as a solution to the paradox. By the end, it is argued that Fermi paradox is an unsolvable problem in the domain of science.

The Fermi paradox has given rise to various attempts to explain why no evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations was found so far on Earth and in our Solar System. Here, we present a dynamical model for the development of such civilizations, which accounts for self-destruction, colonization and astrophysical destruction mechanisms of civilizations including gamma-ray bursts, type Ia and type II supernovae as well as radiation from the supermassive black hole. We adopt conservative estimates regarding the efficiency of such processes and find that astrophysical effects can influence the development of intelligent civilizations and change the number of systems with such civilizations by roughly a factor of $2$; potentially more if the feedback is enhanced. Our results show that non-equilibrium evolution allows for solutions in-between extreme cases such as ‘rare Earth’ or extreme colonization, including scenarios with civilization fractions between $10^{-2}$ and $10^{-7}$. These would imply still potentially large distances to the next such civilizations, particularly when persistence phenomena are being considered. As previous studies, we confirm that the main uncertainties are due to the lifetime of civilizations as well as the assumed rate of colonization. For SETI-like studies, we believe that unbiased searches are needed considering both the possibilities that the next civilizations are nearby or potentially very far away.

Using a simple, coarse-grained Poisson process model, we calculate – for seven types of astrophysical catastrophe – both their individual and combined threat to complex lifeforms (extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs)) throughout the Milky Way Galaxy. In terms of cumulative effects, we calculate that ETIs are likely to be astrophysically driven extinct on timescales of roughly once every 100 million years. In terms of comparative effects, large bolide impactors represent the most significant type of astrophysical contribution to the galaxy-wide debilitation of hypothesized ETI civilizations. Nonetheless, we conclude that astrophysical existential threats – whether taken singly or in combination – are likely insufficient, alone, to explain the Fermi Paradox. Astrophysical catastrophes, while both deadly and ubiquitous, do not appear to be frequent enough to wipe out every species in the Galaxy before they can attain or utilize spacefaring status.

Solutions to the Fermi paradox either deny the existence of extraterrestrials or offer alternative reasons to explain the non-occurrence of a first contact. While the latter, more optimistic approaches generally assume the existence of extraterrestrials, they simultaneously hint to limited future detectability. If solutions to the Fermi paradox are accepted as true, they must be evaluated in terms of how they affect the likelihood of success of future SETI efforts. Some solutions may lead to the so-called Fermi constraint: in order to explain why there has not been any contact so far, optimistic solutions to the Fermi paradox have to accept assumptions that, if the solution is assumed to be correct, indicate a very low probability of future contact. In other words: they are not here, and that is why they may never appear.

The Drake equation has been used many times to estimate the number of observable civilizations in the galaxy. However, the uncertainty of the outcome is so great that any individual result is of limited use, as predictions can range from a handful of observable civilizations in the observable universe to tens of millions per Milky Way-sized galaxy. A statistical investigation shows that the Drake equation, despite its uncertainties, delivers robust predictions of the likelihood that the prevalent form of intelligence in the universe is artificial rather than biological. The likelihood of artificial intelligence far exceeds the likelihood of biological intelligence in all cases investigated. This conclusion is contingent upon a limited number of plausible assumptions. The significance of this outcome for the Fermi paradox is discussed.

It has been recently proposed DeVito [(2019) On the meaning of Fermi's paradox. Futures, 389–414] that a minimal number of contacts with alien radio-communicative civilizations could be justified by their logarithmically slow rate of growth in the Galaxy. Here we further develop this approach to the Fermi paradox, with the purpose of expanding the ensemble of the possible styles of growth that are consistent with the hypothesis of a minimal number of contacts. Generalizing the approach in DeVito (2019), we show that a logarithmic style of growth is still found. We also find that a style of growth following a power law would be admissible, however characterized by an exponent less than one, hence describing a sublinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, still qualitatively in agreement with DeVito (2019). No solutions are found indicating a superlinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, following for example an exponentially diverging law, which would cause, in the long run, an unsustainable proliferation. Although largely speculative, our findings corroborate the idea that a sublinear rate of increase in the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy could constitute a further resolution of Fermi paradox, implying a constant and minimal – but not zero – number of contacts.

The number of people able to end Earth's technical civilization has heretofore been small. Emerging dual-use technologies, such as biotechnology, may give similar power to thousands or millions of individuals. To quantitatively investigate the ramifications of such a marked shift on the survival of both terrestrial and extraterrestrial technical civilizations, this paper presents a two-parameter model for civilizational lifespans, i.e. the quantity L in Drake's equation for the number of communicating extraterrestrial civilizations. One parameter characterizes the population lethality of a civilization's biotechnology and the other characterizes the civilization's psychosociology. L is demonstrated to be less than the inverse of the product of these two parameters. Using empiric data from PubMed to inform the biotechnology parameter, the model predicts human civilization's median survival time as decades to centuries, even with optimistic psychosociological parameter values, thereby positioning biotechnology as a proximate threat to human civilization. For an ensemble of civilizations having some median calculated survival time, the model predicts that, after 80 times that duration, only one in 1024 civilizations will survive – a tempo and degree of winnowing compatible with Hanson's ‘Great Filter.’ Thus, assuming that civilizations universally develop advanced biotechnology, before they become vigorous interstellar colonizers, the model provides a resolution to the Fermi paradox.

‘Where is everybody?’ remarked Enrico Fermi, leading to the famous, and as yet unanswered ‘Fermi's Paradox’ as this remark has come to be known. While there are a number of possible solutions that vary from the distances are too great; the cost prohibitive or civilizations naturally decline or eliminate themselves before interstellar travel becomes possible, none of these are intellectually satisfying. More recently, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb suggested that for those planets orbiting red dwarfs, atmospheric erosion may be a partial solution to this ‘paradox’. Such planets may experience greater exposure to stellar winds and/or extreme ultraviolet and X-radiation (henceforth abbreviated to EUV). While this proposition is undeniably reasonable, it is likely incomplete. A more fundamental limitation on the development of biological complexity is imposed by plate tectonics: time. On asynchronously rotating planets, the habitable area for any species is defined by latitudinal bands that encompass the globe. Conversely, on synchronous rotators, the comparative habitable area is limited to broadly concentric regions surrounding the Sub-Stellar Point (SSP). Given that terrestrial mammals and from them humans evolved in tropical or subtropical regions, the geographical area subtended with these conditions is likely to be smaller and transected by suitable landmasses for shorter periods than on asynchronously rotating worlds. Habitable subaerial regions for individual species are therefore more limited in area. This leads to a greater limitation on the temporal intervals over which biological complexity can evolve.

Non-homogeneous fractal-like colonization processes, where the cluster of visited sites has large voids and grows slowly, could explain the negative results of Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) preserving the possibility of a galactic spanning civilization. Here we present a generalized invasion percolation model to illustrate a minimal colonization process with large voids and delayed colonization. Spatial correlation between unvisited sites, in the form of large empty regions, suggests that to search civilizations in the Sun neighbourhood may be a misdirected SETI strategy. A weaker form of the Fermi Paradox also suggests this last conclusion.

The Fermi Paradox (or Question) has moved back into central focus. This is for a number of reasons, not least the evidence for both the abundance and antiquity of many extra-solar systems, the extrapolation of current technological trends to suggest that even inter-galactic colonization (by self-replicating machines) is plausible (if not desirable), and the recurrence of evolutionary solutions (convergence) in the terrestrial biosphere suggesting that features such as intelligence and tool-making are not fortuitous outcomes, but frequent if not universal. Here I review the three possible solutions to the Fermi Paradox. First, extraterrestrials certainly exist (and may be abundant), but for one reason or another (probably mundane) we have not yet met them, or at least found evidence for their existence. Second, against all expectations, we are alone. Third, we have entirely misunderstood the sort of universe we live in and have become unwitting hostages to a strict materialist explanandum that in refusing to acknowledge the other realities of our Universe has derailed any prospect of explaining the apparent absence of extraterrestrials.

The Great Filter interpretation of Fermi's great silence asserts that Npq is not a very large number, where N is the number of potentially life-supporting planets in the observable universe, p is the probability that a randomly chosen such planet develops intelligent life to the level of present-day human civilization, and q is the conditional probability that it then goes on to develop a technological supercivilization visible all over the observable universe. Evidence suggests that N is huge, which implies that pq is very small. Hanson (1998) and Bostrom (2008) have argued that the discovery of extraterrestrial life would point towards p not being small and therefore a very small q, which can be seen as bad news for humanity's prospects of colonizing the universe. Here we investigate whether a Bayesian analysis supports their argument, and the answer turns out to depend critically on the choice of prior distribution.

At this point in time, there is very little empirical evidence on the likelihood of a space-faring species originating in the biosphere of a habitable world. However, there is a tension between the expectation that such a probability is relatively high (given our own origins on Earth), and the lack of any basis for believing the Solar System has ever been visited by an extraterrestrial colonization effort. From the latter observational fact, this paper seeks to place upper limits on the probability of an interstellar civilization arising on a habitable planet in its stellar system, using a percolation model to simulate the progress of such a hypothetical civilization's colonization efforts in the local Solar neighbourhood. To be as realistic as possible, the actual physical positions and characteristics of all stars within 40 parsecs of the Solar System are used as possible colony sites in the percolation process. If an interstellar civilization is very likely to have such colonization programmes, and they can travel over large distances, then the upper bound on the likelihood of such a species arising per habitable world is of the order of 10−3; on the other hand, if civilizations are not prone to colonize their neighbours, or do not travel very far, then the upper limiting probability is much larger, even of order one.

In the light of current scientific assessments of human-induced climate change, we investigate an experimental model to inform how resource-use strategies may influence interplanetary and interstellar colonization by intelligent civilizations. In doing so, we seek to provide an additional aspect for refining the famed Fermi Paradox. The model described is necessarily simplistic, and the intent is to simply obtain some general insights to inform and inspire additional models. We model the relationship between an intelligent civilization and its host planet as symbiotic, where the relationship between the symbiont and the host species (the civilization and the planet's ecology, respectively) determines the fitness and ultimate survival of both organisms. We perform a series of Monte Carlo Realization simulations, where civilizations pursue a variety of different relationships/strategies with their host planet, from mutualism to parasitism, and can consequently ‘infect’ other planets/hosts. We find that parasitic civilizations are generally less effective at survival than mutualist civilizations, provided that interstellar colonization is inefficient (the maximum velocity of colonization/infection is low). However, as the colonization velocity is increased, the strategy of parasitism becomes more successful, until they dominate the ‘population’. This is in accordance with predictions based on island biogeography and r/K selection theory. While heavily assumption dependent, we contend that this provides a fertile approach for further application of insights from theoretical ecology for extraterrestrial colonization – while also potentially offering insights for understanding the human–Earth relationship and the potential for extraterrestrial human colonization.

Interstellar probes can carry out slingshot manoeuvres around the stars they visit, gaining a boost in velocity by extracting energy from the star's motion around the Galactic Centre. These manoeuvres carry little to no extra energy cost, and in previous work it has been shown that a single Voyager-like probe exploring the Galaxy does so 100 times faster when carrying out these slingshots than when navigating purely by powered flight (Forgan et al. 2012). We expand on these results by repeating the experiment with self-replicating probes. The probes explore a box of stars representative of the local Solar neighbourhood, to investigate how self-replication affects exploration timescales when compared with a single non-replicating probe. We explore three different scenarios of probe behaviour: (i) standard powered flight to the nearest unvisited star (no slingshot techniques used), (ii) flight to the nearest unvisited star using slingshot techniques and (iii) flight to the next unvisited star that will give the maximum velocity boost under a slingshot trajectory. In all three scenarios, we find that as expected, using self-replicating probes greatly reduces the exploration time, by up to three orders of magnitude for scenarios (i) and (iii) and two orders of magnitude for (ii). The second case (i.e. nearest-star slingshots) remains the most time effective way to explore a population of stars. As the decision-making algorithms for the fleet are simple, unanticipated ‘race conditions’ among probes are set up, causing the exploration time of the final stars to become much longer than necessary. From the scaling of the probes' performance with star number, we conclude that a fleet of self-replicating probes can indeed explore the Galaxy in a sufficiently short time to warrant the existence of the Fermi Paradox.

I propose a unified framework for a joint analysis of the Drake equation and the Fermi paradox, which enables a simultaneous, quantitative study of both of them. The analysis is based on a simplified form of the Drake equation and on a fairly simple scheme for the colonization of the Milky Way. It appears that for sufficiently long-lived civilizations, colonization of the Galaxy is the only reasonable option to gain knowledge about other life forms. This argument allows one to define a region in the parameter space of the Drake equation, where the Fermi paradox definitely holds (‘Strong Fermi paradox’).