This is the first of a series of two papers dealing with local limit theorems in relatively hyperbolic groups. In this first paper, we prove rough estimates for the Green function. Along the way, we introduce the notion of relative automaticity which will be useful in both papers and we show that relatively hyperbolic groups are relatively automatic. We also define the notion of spectral positive recurrence for random walks on relatively hyperbolic groups. We then use our estimates for the Green function to prove that $p_n\asymp R^{-n}n^{-3/2}$ for spectrally positive-recurrent random walks, where $p_n$ is the probability of going back to the origin at time n and where R is the inverse of the spectral radius of the random walk.

The tail of risk neutral returns can be related explicitly with the wing behaviour of the Black-Scholes implied volatility smile. In situations where precise tail asymptotics are unknown but a moment generating function is available we establish, under easy-to-check Tauberian conditions, tail asymptotics on logarithmic scales. Such asymptotics are enough to make the tail-wing formula (see Benaim and Friz (2008)) work and so we obtain, under generic conditions, a limiting slope when plotting the square of the implied volatility against the log strike, improving a lim sup statement obtained earlier by Lee (2004). We apply these results to time-changed exponential Lévy models and examine several popular models in more detail, both analytically and numerically.

Let W be the usual almost-sure limit random variable in a supercritical simple branching process; we study its tail behaviour. For the left tail, we distinguish two cases, the ‘Schröder' and ‘Böttcher' cases; both appear in work of Harris and Dubuc. The Schröder case is related to work of Karlin and McGregor on embeddability in continuous-time (Markov) branching processes. New results are obtained for the Böttcher case; there are links with recent work of Barlow and Perkins on Brownian motion on a fractal. The right tail is also considered. Use is made of recent progress in Tauberian theory.