We investigate the synchronization of the Eurozone’s government bond yields at different maturities. For this purpose, we combine principal component analysis with random matrix theory. We find that synchronization depends on yield maturity. Short-term yields are not synchronized. Medium- and long-term yields, instead, were highly synchronized early after the introduction of the Euro. Synchronization then decreased significantly during the Great Recession and the European Debt Crisis, to partially recover after 2015. We interpret our empirical results using portfolio theory, and we point to divergence trades as a source of the self-sustained yield asynchronous dynamics. Our results envisage synchronization as a requirement for the smooth transmission of conventional monetary policy in the Eurozone.

We find closed formulas for arbitrarily high mixed moments of characteristic polynomials of the Alternative Circular Unitary Ensemble, as well as closed formulas for the averages of ratios of characteristic polynomials in this ensemble. A comparison is made to analogous results for the Circular Unitary Ensemble. Both moments and ratios are studied via symmetric function theory and a general formula of Borodin-Olshanski-Strahov.

We calculate the moments of the characteristic polynomials of $N\times N$ matrices drawn from the Hermitian ensembles of Random Matrix Theory, at a position t in the bulk of the spectrum, as a series expansion in powers of t. We focus in particular on the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble. We employ a novel approach to calculate the coefficients in this series expansion of the moments, appropriately scaled. These coefficients are polynomials in N. They therefore grow as $N\to\infty$ , meaning that in this limit the radius of convergence of the series expansion tends to zero. This is related to oscillations as t varies that are increasingly rapid as N grows. We show that the $N\to\infty$ asymptotics of the moments can be derived from this expansion when $t=0$ . When $t\ne 0$ we observe a surprising cancellation when the expansion coefficients for N and $N+1$ are formally averaged: this procedure removes all of the N-dependent terms leading to values that coincide with those expected on the basis of previously established asymptotic formulae for the moments. We obtain as well formulae for the expectation values of products of the secular coefficients.

We show that for an $n\times n$ random symmetric matrix $A_n$ , whose entries on and above the diagonal are independent copies of a sub-Gaussian random variable $\xi$ with mean 0 and variance 1,

\begin{equation*}\mathbb{P}[s_n(A_n) \le \epsilon/\sqrt{n}] \le O_{\xi}(\epsilon^{1/8} + \exp(\!-\Omega_{\xi}(n^{1/2}))) \quad \text{for all } \epsilon \ge 0.\end{equation*}

$n^{1/2}$

$n^{c}$

$1/8$

$(1/8) - \eta$

$\eta > 0$

$\xi$

\begin{equation*}\mathbb{P}[s_n(A_n) \le \epsilon/\sqrt{n}] \le O(\epsilon^{1/8} + \exp(\!-\Omega((\!\log{n})^{1/4}n^{1/2}))) \quad \text{for all } \epsilon \ge 0.\end{equation*}

$\epsilon = 0$

$\mathbb{P}[s_n(A_n) = 0] \le O(\exp(\!-\Omega(n^{1/2}))).$

We consider a class of sample covariance matrices of the form Q = TXX*T*, where X = (xij) is an M×N rectangular matrix consisting of independent and identically distributed entries, and T is a deterministic matrix such that T*T is diagonal. Assuming that M is comparable to N, we prove that the distribution of the components of the right singular vectors close to the edge singular values agrees with that of Gaussian ensembles provided the first two moments of xij coincide with the Gaussian random variables. For the right singular vectors associated with the bulk singular values, the same conclusion holds if the first four moments of xij match those of the Gaussian random variables. Similar results hold for the left singular vectors if we further assume that T is diagonal.

In this series of papers, we explore moments of derivatives of L-functions in function fields using classical analytic techniques such as character sums and approximate functional equation. The present paper is concerned with the study of mean values of derivatives of quadratic Dirichlet L-functions over function fields when the average is taken over monic and irreducible polynomials P in 𝔽q[T]. When the cardinality q of the ground field is fixed and the degree of P gets large, we obtain asymptotic formulas for the first moment of the first and the second derivative of this family of L-functions at the critical point. We also compute the full polynomial expansion in the asymptotic formulas for both mean values.

We study the fluctuations in the distribution of zeros of zeta functions of a family of hyperelliptic curves defined over a fixed finite field, in the limit of large genus. According to the Riemann hypothesis for curves, the zeros all lie on a circle. Their angles are uniformly distributed, so for a curve of genus g a fixed interval ℐ will contain asymptotically 2g∣ℐ∣ angles as the genus grows. We show that for the variance of number of angles in ℐ is asymptotically (2/π2)log (2g∣ℐ∣) and prove a central limit theorem: the normalized fluctuations are Gaussian. These results continue to hold for shrinking intervals as long as the expected number of angles 2g∣ℐ∣ tends to infinity.

We investigate the large weight ($k\to\infty$) limiting statistics for the low lying zeros of a GL(4) and a GL(6) family of $L$-functions, $\{L(s,\phi \times f): f \in H_k\}$ and $\{L(s,\phi \times {\rm sym}^2 f): f \in H_k\}$; here $\phi$ is a fixed even Hecke–Maass cusp form and $H_k$ is a Hecke eigenbasis for the space $H_k$ of holomorphic cusp forms of weight $k$ for the full modular group. Katz and Sarnak conjecture that the behavior of zeros near the central point should be well modeled by the behavior of eigenvalues near 1 of a classical compact group. By studying the 1- and 2-level densities, we find evidence of underlying symplectic and SO(even) symmetry, respectively. This should be contrasted with previous results of Iwaniec–Luo–Sarnak for the families $\{L(s,f): f\in H_k\}$ and $\{L(s,{\rm sym}^2f): f\in H_k\}$, where they find evidence of orthogonal and symplectic symmetry, respectively. The present examples suggest a relation between the symmetry type of a family and that of its twistings, which will be further studied in a subsequent paper. Both the GL(4) and the GL(6) families above have all even functional equations, and neither is naturally split from an orthogonal family. A folklore conjecture states that such families must be symplectic, which is true for the first family but false for the second. Thus, the theory of low lying zeros is more than just a theory of signs of functional equations. An analysis of these families suggest that it is the second moment of the Satake parameters that determines the symmetry group.