I contribute to the literature on the growth of public spending in Western economies with a novel mechanism that ties it to the marketization process, i.e. the substitution of home with market production. I argue that a key contributor to the expansion of social spending is the replacement of family-based transfers with public pensions and other public transfer programs. I provide empirical support for this hypothesis by establishing the long-run relationship between government size and marketization, alongside other established determinants of government spending, in a panel of Western economies. I then illustrate a potential mechanism behind the results with a theoretical model in which, as a result of the productivity advantage of the market over the home sector, family-based intergenerational transfers decline unexpectedly, providing a rationale for government intervention in the form of public pensions with a poverty relief component.

Offshore wind farms (OWF) are now in operation and increasingly under construction as scalable, sustainable energy sources. In fact OWFs are currently the cheapest form of new energy projects in Europe. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for OWF has fallen drastically due to decades of innovation facilitated by both taxpayer and private sector funding. This emerging industry is experiencing massive worldwide growth with the potential to accelerate the decarbonization of regional and the global economy as well as bring a reliable source of green hydrogen into commercial use, all with minimal disruption to ecosystems and impacts on biodiversity. This paper provides a historical perspective of wind energy harnessing and shows that wind turbines are the oldest, largest and one of the smartest machines. We also highlight the potential of offshore wind energy to provide new solutions to (a) meet clean energy demand for a growing world population, (b) improve energy security of nations through other downstream technologies such as production and storage of dispatchable fuel (such as green hydrogen battery storage) and (c) through supply complementarity improve resilience of nuclear power plants in high-seismic-activity areas. Offshore wind industry can also become a gold standard for future industries, and the paper provides insights into the new green economics and jobs and factories for the future. We show that environment-friendly regulation is driving innovations even further to enhance sustainability of OWF. Examples include material recycling, landfill ban on blade disposal and ecofriendly low-noise offshore construction to protect biodiversity.

With a modified formalization of Heckscher–Ohlin theory as the basis of a novel econometric specification, this paper uses worldwide data over three decades to estimate how the effects of greater openness on industrialization vary among countries with differing endowments of land relative to labour. The results confirm the theoretical prediction that greater openness reduces manufactured output shares in land-abundant countries, while increasing them in land-scarce countries. The implications of these results for trade and development policy are debatable.

This study develops a Malthusian model for the evolution of human society from hunting-gathering to agriculture and from agriculture to industrial production. Human society evolves across these stages as the population grows. However, under endogenous population growth, the population may stop growing at any stage. If it fails to reach the first threshold, the population remains as hunter-gatherers. If it reaches the first threshold, an agricultural society emerges. Then, if the population fails to reach the industrial threshold, it remains in an agricultural Malthusian trap without experiencing industrialization. Interestingly, high agricultural productivity triggers not only the Neolithic Revolution but also the subsequent industrialization. Using cross-country data to test this result, we employ an index of prehistoric biogeographic conditions that affect agricultural productivity as an instrument for the timing of transitions to agriculture and find that an earlier transition to agriculture has a positive effect on industrialization in the modern era.

While technological progress played a central role in the British Industrial Revolution, statistical evidence on how inventors and entrepreneurs engaged in the process of technological innovation has typically received minor attention. In this paper I use quantitative methods to show that counties with a relatively high number of informal networks −in the form of Freemasonry, friendly societies, libraries, and booksellers− experienced more innovation as measured by new patents and exhibits at the 1851 Crystal Palace World’s Fair. Qualitative evidence and propensity score matching suggest that the mechanisms highlighted here were an important part of British technological leadership. Economic factors cannot account for these patterns.

The 2013 and 2014 announcements by major car manufacturers that they would wind down all their remaining Australian automotive operations by 2016/2017 pre-empted the March 2014 release of the Productivity Commission’s final report into motor vehicle manufacturing. The Commission suggested that government subsidies had only delayed car plant closures and reiterated its longstanding opposition to industry policy and redistributive regional adjustment programmes by government. Industrialists, employer associations, state governments and trade unions have, however, questioned the Commission’s forecasts for both economic spillover effects and social impacts in regions affected by automotive plant closures. In addition to challenging several underlying assumptions used to calculate the Productivity Commission’s forecasts, this article argues that insufficient attention has been paid to the quality of future work. It extends insights from previous studies of industrial decline by proposing a new research agenda based on the idea of ‘social spillovers’.

Australia developed a strong and successful automotive manufacturing industry after the Second World War, based on active industrial policy. But in 2017, mass vehicle assembly in the country will cease altogether, as the last global automakers operating in the country close their final plants, with negative spillover effects along the automotive manufacturing supply chain. After 2017, Australia will be the only major industrial country with no vehicle assembly whatsoever. This article analyses the shifts in industrial policy that explain both the initial postwar expansion, and the subsequent decline and closures. Policy-makers incorrectly assumed that the critical goal of stimulating automotive exports could be achieved through trade liberalisation, but dismantling tariffs only stimulated vehicle imports without increasing overseas demand for Australian cars. Production declined in tandem with tariffs, and there was no clear industry policy strategy for facilitating the redirection of released resources to more productive manufacturing activity, when that outcome, predicted in neoliberal comparative advantage theory, failed to materialise. Financial market deregulation, resulting in financialisation of the economy, coupled with high commodity prices, resulted in an overvalued and volatile currency, attracting foreign investors to resources and asset speculation while appearing to increase manufacturing production costs. A clear contrast is drawn between Australia’s policy passivity in recent decades, and the continued policy activism visible in other jurisdictions of all political orientations – including countries which, particularly after the global financial crisis, faced economic and industrial challenges at least as daunting as Australia’s. In the 1970s, Australia had been among the world’s top 10 auto manufacturers; after 2017, it will be one of only two G20 countries completely lacking mass automotive manufacturing capacity. The industry’s disappearance from Australia is shown to have resulted from some unique policy choices: understanding them may help avert future similar policy errors.

Investigations into new technologies, employment and working conditions are timeless and consequently have occupied research, public policy, and popular fiction for centuries. However, in addition to the uncertainty created by the introduction of new technologies, the current coronavirus pandemic, with its associated impact on health and the economy, has led to increased volatility across the globe. The global medical crisis arising from the worldwide spread of COVID-19 is predicted to lead to a global economic crisis and subsequent deep depression. The resultant economic, social and political repercussions are likely to be felt for years or even decades to come, equalling the great depression of the last century. Consequently, it is difficult to make long-term accurate predictions about the impact of new technologies on industry, society, and labour. In this context, the aim of this introductory article to the themed volume is to consider the potential challenges and opportunities associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies and potential impacts on work and workplaces. This introductory article comprises an international collection of research that examines the impact of technological change on employment and working conditions with consideration given to the additional impacts of the COVID-19 crisis.

Institutional economists have analyzed permissionless blockchains as a novel institutional building block for voluntary economic exchange and distributed governance, with their unique protocol features such as automated contract execution, high levels of network and process transparency, and uniquely distributed governance. But such institutional analysis needs to be complemented by polycentric analysis of how blockchains change. We characterize such change as resulting from internal sources and external sources. Internal sources include constitutional (protocol) design and collective-choice processes for updating protocols, which help coordinate network participants and users. External sources include competitive pressure from other cryptocurrency networks. By studying two leading networks, Bitcoin and Ethereum, we illustrate how conceptualizing blockchains as competing and constitutional polycentric enterprises clarifies their processes of change.

This is a review of Joel Mokyr's fascinating book entitled A Culture of Growth. The work is summarized, noting its focus on Darwin-style evolutionary explanations of cultural change. But Mokyr's emphasis on cultural entrepreneurs and positive feedbacks in the procreation of ideas is insufficient to explain the origins of modern economic growth. Too much explanatory weight is placed on too few extraordinary people. It is argued that Mokyr's analysis should be extended, to bring the evolution of institutions, as well as the evolution of culture, into the picture at an additional level. The role of inter-state rivalry and exogenous shocks has also to be underlined. This kind of analysis can be developed within the framework of generalized Darwinism, which Mokyr himself adopts. This is a major and highly stimulating book.

Este artículo analiza las trayectorias de modernización estructural para la industria de ocho países latinoamericanos (Bolivia, Brasil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, México, Perú, Uruguay) desde 1970 hasta la fecha. Desde una perspectiva teórica estructuralista que explora las interacciones dinámicas entre el cambio estructural y el escalamiento tecnológico, se construye un índice de modernización. Los hallazgos muestran que el establecimiento de modelos económicos neoliberales en Latinoamérica a partir de los años ochenta, significó un punto de ruptura en estas trayectorias. Mientras la racionalización de procesos productivos por parte de las empresas implicó un desplazamiento del empleo en dirección de usos de baja productividad relativa, el desarrollo de industrias intensivas en capital e insertas en dinámicas globales, no impulsó la modernización estructural debido a la naturaleza de las tareas efectuadas. Los ejercicios permiten esbozar una primera tipología en términos de las carencias más apremiantes de cada caso.

This paper examines the impact of climate shocks, measured as temperature and precipitation variability, on real monthly per capita consumption expenditure of Indian households over the 1988–2012 period, utilising data from the National Sample Survey Organisation's Consumer Expenditure Surveys. The regression results show an increase in consumption by 1.2 per cent on average, in response to a one standard deviation rise in temperature, with heterogeneous impacts across economic sectors. While agricultural and industrial households experience consumption declines of 1.7 per cent and 8.3 per cent on average, service sector households exhibit consumption increases by 2.4–9.6 per cent on average across rural and urban regions, in response to a one standard deviation rise in temperature. The analysis suggests an increase in inequality of consumption across sectors due to climatic shocks, with implications for climate policy and sustainable development in India.

Two seemingly unrelated topics are discussed—an outlook for biofuels in the southern United States, along with an overview of the important role that information technology is playing in the fuel ethanol industry. The outlook discussion is limited to issues involving the two principal biofuels, fuel ethanol and biodiesel, and their respective feed stocks, corn and soybean oil. The two topics are linked with a description of how information technology (IT) has enabled the development of the fuel ethanol franchise and a discussion of how IT is changing the very nature of biofuel operations.

The probability of a business paying various amounts of money for ane-commerce presence ultimately depends on demographic features, experienceswith e-commerce from a buyer's and seller's perspective, technologicalexpertise, and knowledge of e-commerce opportunities and limitations.Estimating functions to assign probabilities associated with the willingnessto pay for an e-commerce presence will assist in forecasting regionallikelihood of certain profiles paying various monetary amounts for ane-commerce presence. In addition, if services are provided at no cost by athird party, value to a society will be maximized by selecting profiles withthe highest willingness to pay.

This article presents a comparative analysis of the productive performance of the modern Spanish iron and steel industry from its origins up to the Spanish Civil War. Three aspects are examined: the extent to which the industry had the potential to compete in world markets, whether or not Spanish mills applied new technologies to re-establish or maintain their competitivity and which elements limited or increased the advantage of their products. The analysis shows a revealed advantage in products intensive in iron ore. Part of this advantage can be traced back to preferential ore supply contracts. The limits to these preferential contracts introduced incentives for maintaining the reduced scale of Spanish installations. The attempt to gain control over home markets on behalf of Altos Hornos de Vizcaya may be related to these contractual limitations. The high profits reaped through the cartelisation of the industry and the wide margin of benefit obtained by producing within the scale of the preferential ore supply contracts provide an alternative explanation for the industry's performance in the period.

This article clarifies the means whereby the Catalan cotton industry attained independence from imported yarn in a critical stage of its development between the 1790s and the War of Independence. It does so by tracking the origins, and early diffusion, of the Arkwright technology in Catalonia in the form of a machine-making and spinning company formed between an Olotí stocking frame knitter, a Barcelona silver-smith and an Ávila trained machine-maker. The spinning and weaving initiatives of the Company inform on the circumstances conditioning the Catalan industry's incorporation of the spinning processes. Light is also thrown on the character of machine-making at this stage of Catalan industrialization in a pilot-enterprise anxious to restrict technical diffusion.