We revisit the nonconsensual econometric works – although the natural resource curse may have flourished – on the relationship between natural resources and economic performance. We first question the two terms of the relationship. We consider the role of institutions (separately and in interaction with the variable of interest) and of a number of usual or new control variables (income inequality and current account). The model, based on development accounting, is tested using four econometric techniques on the full sample (130 countries, 1990–2019) and by sub-samples according to per capita income, illustrating the non-linearity of the relationship. Three stylized facts emerge: first, the overall results converge towards a strong blessing of resource rents on GDP per capita. This can be explained mainly by the role of these rents in countries with very high GDP per capita. Second, institutional variables significantly mitigate the negative effect or reinforce the positive effect of these resources on development. Finally, among the categories of resources considered, it is the oil rent that favors this strong natural resource blessing. The effects of the observed categories may offset each other. Detailed analyses of estimation’s results in sub-samples and articulated with the results of the full sample are also proposed.

Malaria still poses significant risks, especially in India. In addition to averting behaviors, forests may help reduce mosquitoes in rural areas and, thus, the malaria incidence and mortality. However, the evidence is still scarce about the magnitude and value of this ecosystem service. To address this gap, we use a panel dataset for 2013–2015 and evaluate the impact of forest loss on malaria morbidity in India's rural areas. We find that, on average, the loss of 1 km2 of forest resulted in 0.16 additional deaths per 100,000 people. This translates into marginal values of forests for reducing malaria mortality of, at least, $1.26–85.9/ha/year in 2015 US$. Our results suggest that combining forest conservation and traditional anti-malaria policies like indoor spraying and insecticide-treated nets may be an effectual way to mitigate the malarial burden in India and elsewhere and offer insights about the value of potential payments for ecosystem services.

Increasing electricity access remains a challenge, particularly in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the case of Tanzania, where connection rates remain low even among rural households residing ‘under the grid’, and this despite substantial government subsidies for household connections. Using data from 1,774 rural households living within reach of the electricity grid, we investigate correlates of the low grid electricity uptake. We find that proxies for wealth are positively associated with connection status, while social network variables are less so. Capacity to pay thus appears to remain a major barrier, and in-house wiring costs emerge as a significant expense unaddressed by the existing subsidy scheme, exceeding grid connection costs sevenfold. Similar mechanisms influence the choice between grid electricity and traditional or solar energy sources. These findings inform the ongoing policy debate on subsidy design and the role of alternative energy sources in expanding access.

When every individual’s effort imposes negative externalities, self-interested behavior leads to socially excessive effort. To curb these excesses when effort cannot be monitored, competing output-sharing partnerships can form. With the right-sized groups, aggregate effort falls to the socially optimal level. We investigate this theory experimentally and find that while it makes correct qualitative predictions, there are systematic quantitative deviations, always in the direction of the socially optimal investment. Using data on subjects’ conjectures of each other’s behavior we investigate altruism, conformity and extremeness aversion as possible explanations. We show that deviations are consistent with both altruism and conformity (but not extremeness aversion).

We conduct a framed field experiment in rural Ethiopia to test the seminal hypothesis that insurance provision induces farmers to take greater, yet profitable, risks. Farmers participated in a game protocol in which they were asked to make a simple decision: whether or not to purchase fertilizer and if so, how many bags. The return to fertilizer was dependent on a stochastic weather draw made in each round of the game. In later rounds a random selection of farmers made this decision in the presence of a stylized weather-index insurance contract. Insurance was found to have some positive effect on fertilizer purchases. Purchases were also found to depend on the realization of the weather in the previous round. We explore the mechanisms of this relationship and find that it may be the result of both changes in wealth weather brings about, and changes in perceptions of the costs and benefits to fertilizer purchases.

Energy inefficiency and environmental damages caused by this inefficiency are increasingly common in developing countries. As the largest developing country, China is experiencing a rapid growth in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Do OFDI firms have higher energy efficiency in the same sector? After OFDI, how does the energy efficiency of the firms change? In this study, we employ the data from Chinese industrial firms to empirically investigate these questions. Our results show that OFDI firms have higher energy efficiency and total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) relative to non-OFDI firms in the same sector. After OFDI, firms improve energy efficiency and TFEE through expanding output scale. In addition, these effects are found to be heterogeneous in terms of energy types as well as OFDI motivations and destinations. In general, this study provides some initial evidence for the relationship between OFDI and energy performance at the firm level.

The study analyzes productive efficiency of crop farming in the EU. We use publicly available data on crop farming from FADN database. Standard efficiency measurement techniques based on frontier analysis indicate that the representative farms provided in the database are fully efficient, even though there is ample evidence in the literature that this is highly unlikely. We find that this is a consequence of overly restrictive assumptions about the compound error in standard SF models. The efficiency benchmark, based on the best model given data with generalized error specification, reveals substantial differences in crop farming efficiency in the EU.

The so-called credibility revolution dominates empirical economics, with its promise of causal identification to improve scientific knowledge and ultimately policy. By examining the case of rural electrification in the Global South, this opinion paper exposes the limits of this evidence-based policy paradigm. The electrification literature boasts many studies using the credibility revolution toolkit, but at the same time, several systematic reviews demonstrate that the evidence is divided between very positive and muted effects. This bifurcation presents a challenge to the science-policy interface, where policymakers, lacking the resources to sift through the evidence, may be drawn to the results that serve their (agency's) interests. The interpretation is furthermore complicated by unresolved methodological debates circling around external validity as well as selective reporting and publication decisions. These features, we argue, are not particular to the electrification literature but inherent to the credibility revolution toolkit.

In this paper, we propose a network model to explain the implications of the pressure to share resources. Individuals use the network to establish social interactions that allow them to increase their income. They also use the network as a safety and to ask for assistance in case of need. The network is therefore a system characterized by social pressure to share and redistribute surplus of resources among members. The main result is that the potential redistributive pressure from other network members causes individuals to behave inefficiently. The number of social interactions used to employ workers displays a non-monotonic pattern with respect to the number of neighbors (degree): it increases for intermediate degree and decreases for high degree. Respect to a benchmark case without social pressure, individuals with few (many) network members interact more (less). Finally, we show that these predictions are consistent with the results obtained in a set of field experiments run in rural Tanzania.

We study household fuel choice in rural China through the lens of social interactions, deploying a structural discrete choice interaction model to explain peer-dependence in household fuel choice. The data comes from the China Family Panel Studies 2010–2020, and we use multiple strategies to examine the robustness of the social interaction effects. We find a significant endogenous social effect, meaning that whether a household chooses non-solid clean fuel for cooking is directly affected by the choice in cooking fuel made by its neighbors in the village. Households with lower non-farm income are more sensitive to the choices of others, and the fuel choices of households with a higher education and/or a higher income attracts more attention from others. Modern communication technologies facilitate information exchange among rural residents, thereby strengthening the endogenous social effect. We suggest that public policies can accelerate rural energy transition by stimulating positive social spillovers.

Why did the human brain evolve? This study develops a Malthusian growth model with heterogeneous agents and natural selection to explore the evolution of human brain size. We find that if the cognitive advantage of a larger brain dominates its higher metabolic costs, then the average brain size increases over time, which is consistent with the rising trend in human brain size that started over 2 million years ago. Furthermore, an improvement in hunting-gathering productivity (e.g., the discovery of using stone tools and fire in hunting animals and cooking food) helps to trigger this human brain size evolution. As the average brain size increases, the average level of hunting-gathering productivity also rises over time. Quantitatively, our model is able to replicate the trend in hominin brain evolution over the last 10 million years.

Ensuring energy access for rural households is crucial for global sustainable development. Technologies like liquefied petroleum gas, biogas, and efficient cookers are touted as solutions, yet their adoption remains limited despite their potential health, economic, and environmental benefits. We conducted a meta-analysis of 50 studies in developing countries, integrating contextual factors to explore gender and other determinants impacting rural energy transition. Our findings underscore socioeconomic status, social capital, environmental concerns, and gender dynamics as pivotal factors. Notably, women's involvement boosts adoption rates by 7.90 per cent, yet cultural barriers often sideline them from these processes. Thus, our recommendations stress addressing women's roles as energy technology users to foster inclusive energy transitions.

Energy access is often considered a catalyst for development. Yet, the binary classification of household electrification misses important variation in service quality and in how households use electricity. To examine the benefits of household electrification and illustrate the importance of using more nuanced classifications of energy access, this article develops a metric called the Energy Access Dividend (EAD), which quantifies the electrification benefits forgone due to slow and incomplete energy transitions. This framework is flexible, allowing for the estimation of a variety of electrification benefits such as reduced lighting and cell phone charging expenditures, environmental improvements, time use and asset ownership changes, and improvements associated with productive energy use. To demonstrate the applicability of this framework, we calculate the EAD for several proposed electrification trajectory alternatives in Honduras. We find that in Honduras, a country with high rates of basic electricity access, achieving immediate universal, high-quality electricity would generate nearly $697 million in benefits over the period leading up to 2050. We also estimate the EADs associated with more limited immediate electrification as well as geographically based electrification scenarios, demonstrating that these calculations can inform priorities for energy policy design.

Strengthening climate resilience requires farmers to select climate adaptation strategies like weather index insurance. Acknowledging that decision-making is not isolated, this study explores simultaneous peer imitation in climate adaptation choices consisting of index insurance, savings, and their interaction. We present results from a lab-in-the-field experiment that introduces innovative index insurance. Findings indicate significant and strong imitation attitudes. While the bigger peer surrounding seems relevant in the static perspective, the closer surrounding gains importance in the dynamic perspective. Additionally, credit, trust, and practical understanding stimulate adoption. Community-based extension interventions and credit-bundled products may increase index insurance diffusion and improve climate resilience.

In this paper, we consider four scenarios for economic optimal management of a fisheries resource by a high sea and coastal fleet segment. These scenarios differ with respect to whether a common or two separate fish stocks are considered and whether the profit from land-based processing is included. The model is parametrized using the Greenland halibut fishery on the west coast of Greenland as an empirical case. For this fishery, we show that the relative ranking of the optimal high sea industry harvest and profit compared to the coastal industry harvest and profit depends on the chosen scenario. When comparing the scenarios for optimal management and the actual situation, we find that the fish stock tends to be overexploited.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of natural resources on income inequality conditional on economic complexity in 111 developed and developing countries from 1995 to 2016. The system-GMM results show that economic complexity reverses the positive effects of natural resource dependence on income inequality. Furthermore, results are robust to the distinction between dependence on point resources (fossil fuels, ores, and metals), dependence on diffuse resources (agricultural raw material), and resource abundance. Finally, there are significant differences between countries, depending on the level of ethnic fragmentation and democracy.

We estimate the impact of subsequent droughts on the revenues of farmers in Ethiopia factoring in their adaptive capacity. We find that after the first drought, there is no significant difference in the revenue of the farmers who experienced a drought, as compared to those who did not. However, there is a loss in revenue after the second drought, specifically for those farmers that are endowed with less assets. This finding underscores that a rise in the frequency of extreme events and shocks can potentially have significant local distributional implications, with wealth as a major distinguishing factor.

Over the past three decades, tariff protection to farmers has fallen and partly been replaced by domestic support, whilst support for farmers in some emerging economies has grown. Against that backdrop, this paper provides new estimates of national economic impacts of global agricultural tariffs and domestic supports. Using the latest global economy-wide GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model calibrated to 2017, we simulate (a) the removal of food and agricultural domestic supports and agri-food tariffs and (b) the removal also of tariffs on imports of non-agricultural goods. We find that agricultural support policies are still an important part of the global welfare cost of all goods’ trade-restrictive policies (albeit only half as costly as in 2001), and tariffs still dominate the global welfare cost of all farm-support programs. That farm support could be re-instrumented to relieve natural resource and environmental stresses, boost food and nutrition security, and alleviate poverty and income inequality.

The impact of product ratings is significant in the experience goods market, whose intangible products are difficult to evaluate before consumption. Product ratings can reduce information asymmetries because they represent a credible signal of quality and thus positively affect product sales. In this study, we shed light on how professional critics behave by focusing on the influence of product characteristics and former reviews on rating behavior and market prices as additional quality signals in wine markets. Using 13,911 observations from professional wine tastings, we analyze 8,444 worldwide-produced wines and their ratings over 20 years. We find clear evidence to suggest that prices and product ratings are significantly related. Finally, the results suggest that review consistency evolves and determines current ratings.

This paper conducts a benefit–cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development (R&D) in the Global South. We extend a recent modeling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D are estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) is 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond.