Although there is now substantial evidence on the acute impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on anxiety disorders, the long-term population impact of the pandemic remains largely unexplored.

To quantify a possible longitudinal population-level impact of the pandemic by projecting the prevalence of anxiety disorders through 2030 among men and women aged up to 95 years in Germany under scenarios with varying impacts of the pandemic on the incidence of anxiety disorders.

We used a three-state illness–death model and data from the Global Burden of Disease Study to model historical trends of the prevalence and incidence of anxiety disorders. The German population projections determined the initial values for projections. The COVID-19 incidence rate data informed an additional incidence model, which was parameterised with a wash-in period, delay, wash-out period, incidence increase level and decay constant.

When no additional increase in the incidence during the pandemic waves during 2020–2022 was assumed, it was estimated that 3.86 million women (9.96%) and 2.13 million men (5.40%) would have anxiety disorders in 2030. When increases in incidence following pandemic waves were assumed, the most extreme scenario projected 5.67 million (14.02%) women and 3.30 million (8.14%) men with the mental disorder in 2030.

Any increased incidence during the pandemic resulted in elevated prevalence over the projection period. Projection of anxiety disorder prevalence based on the illness–death model enables simulations with varying assumptions and provides insight for public health planning. These findings should be refined as trend data accumulate and become available.

Migration is a well-established risk factor for psychotic disorders, and migrant language has been proposed as a novel factor that may improve our understanding of this relationship. Our objective was to explore the association between indicators of linguistic distance and the risk of psychotic disorders among first-generation migrant groups.

Using linked health administrative data, we constructed a retrospective cohort of first-generation migrants to Ontario over a 20-year period (1992–2011). Linguistic distance of the first language was categorized using several approaches, including language family classifications, estimated acquisition time, syntax-based distance scores, and lexical-based distance scores. Incident cases of non-affective psychotic disorder were identified over a 5- to 25-year period. We used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) for each language variable, after adjustment for knowledge of English at arrival and other factors.

Our cohort included 1 863 803 first-generation migrants. Migrants whose first language was in a different language family than English had higher rates of psychotic disorders (IRR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.16), relative to those whose first language was English. Similarly, migrants in the highest quintile of linguistic distance based on lexical similarity had an elevated risk of psychotic disorder (IRR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.06–1.24). Adjustment for knowledge of English at arrival had minimal effect on observed estimates.

We found some evidence that linguistic factors that impair comprehension may play a role in the excess risk of psychosis among migrant groups; however, the magnitude of effect is small and unlikely to fully explain the elevated rates of psychotic disorder across migrant groups.

Data on trends in the epidemiological burden of bipolar disorder are scarce.

To provide an overview of trends in bipolar disorder burden from 1990 to 2019.

Revisiting the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analysed the number of cases, calculated the age-standardised rate (per 100 000 population) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for bipolar disorder from 1990 to 2019. The independent effects of age, period and cohort were estimated by the age–period–cohort modelling.

Globally, the bipolar disorder-related prevalent cases, incident cases and number of YLDs all increased from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, the World Health Organization Region of the Americas accounted for the highest estimated YLD number and rate, with the highest age-standardised prevalence rate in 1990 and 2019 and highest EAPC of prevalence. By sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, all five SDI regions saw an increase in estimated incident cases. Nationally, New Zealand reported the highest age-standardised rate of incidence, prevalence and YLDs in 1990 and 2019. The most prominent age effect on incidence rate was in those aged 15–19 years. Decreased effects of period on incidence, prevalence and YLD rates was observed overall and in females, not in males. The incidence, prevalence and YLD rates showed an unfavourable trend in the younger cohorts born after 1990, with males reporting a higher cohort risk than females.

From 1990 to 2019, the overall trend of bipolar disorder burden presents regional and national variations and differs by age, sex, period and cohort.

The burden of mental disorders is increasing worldwide, thus, affecting society and healthcare systems. This study investigated the independent influences of age, period and cohort on the global prevalence of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019; compared them by sex; and predicted the future burden of mental disorders in the next 25 years.

The age-specific and sex-specific incidence of mental disorders worldwide was analysed according to the general analysis strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The incidence and mortality trends of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated through joinpoint regression analysis. The influences of age, period and cohort on the incidence of mental disorders were evaluated with an age–period–cohort model.

From 1990 to 2019, the sex-specific age-standardized incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate decreased slightly. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1990 to 2019 indicated four turning points in the male DALY rate and five turning points in the female DALY rate. In analysis of age effects, the relative risk (RR) of incidence and the DALY rate in mental disorders in men and women generally showed an inverted U-shaped pattern with increasing age. In analysis of period effects, the incidence of mental disorders increased gradually over time, and showed a sub-peak in 2004 (RR, 1.006 for males; 95% CI, 1.000–1.012; 1.002 for women, 0.997–1.008). Analysis of cohort effects showed that the incidence and DALY rate decreased in successive birth cohorts. The incidence of mental disorders is expected to decline slightly over the next 25 years, but the number of cases is expected to increase.

Although the age-standardized burden of mental disorders has declined in the past 30 years, the number of new cases and deaths of mental disorders worldwide has increased, and will continue to increase in the near future. Therefore, relevant policies should be used to promote the prevention and management of known risk factors and strengthen the understanding of risk profiles and incidence modes of mental disorders, to help guide future research on control and prevention strategies.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the leading causes of disability. We aimed to report the MDD-attributable prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI).

Publicly available data on the burden of MDD were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 for the 21 countries in MENA. The counts and age-standardised rates (per 100,000) were presented, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals.

In 2019, MDD had an age-standardised point prevalence of 3322.1 and an incidence rate of 4921.7 per 100,000 population in MENA. Furthermore, there were 4.1 million YLDs in 2019. However, there were no substantial changes in the MDD burden over the period 1990–2019. In 2019, Palestine had the highest burden of MDD. The highest prevalence, incidence and YLDs attributable to MDD were found in the 35–39 age group. In 2019, the YLD rate in MENA was higher than the global rate for almost all age groups. Furthermore, there was a broadly negative association between the YLD rate and SDI.

The study highlights the need to prevent the disorder using a multidisciplinary approach and for the provision of cost-effective treatments for those affected, in order to increase their quality of life.

The incidence of psychotic disorders varies in different geographic areas. As there has been no report from Turkey, this study aimed to provide the treated incidence rate of first-episode psychosis (FEP) in a defined area.

All individuals, aged 15–64 years, presenting with FEP (ICD-10 F20-29, F30-33) to mental health services in a defined catchment-area in Sinop which is located in the Black Sea region of the northern Turkey were recorded over a 4-year period (2009 to 2012). Incidence rates of psychotic disorders and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. Poisson regression was applied to estimate the differences in incidence rate ratio (IRR) by age, sex, and urbanicity.

One hundred and fifteen FEP participants were identified during the 4 years. Crude incidence rates of all psychoses, schizophrenia, other psychotic disorders, and affective psychotic disorders were respectively 38.5 (95% CI 27.1–49.9), 10.7 (95% CI 6.6–14.8), 10.0 (95% CI 5.7–14.3) and 17.7 (95% CI 11.3–24.2) per 100 000 person-years. After age-sex standardisation the rates increased slightly. There were no gender differences in the incidence rates. IRR of any psychotic disorder was highest in the youngest age group (15–24 years) compared to the oldest age group (55–64 years), 7.9 (95% CI 2.8–30.5). In contrast with previous studies, the incidence rate of any psychotic disorder was not significantly increased in urban areas compared with rural areas.

The current study, the first of its kind from Turkey, indicates that the risk of schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders in a lowly urbanised area of Turkey is comparable to those reported in Western European cities.

Common mental disorders (CMDs) including depression, anxiety, and stress are very common, but it is unclear whether the last decades of social, economic, and political change have impacted incidence of CMD. This study explored temporal trends in the recorded incidence of CMD in the United Kingdom.

We used data from general practices in the United Kingdom (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to estimate the annual recorded incidence of CMD for 2000–2020, including symptoms, diagnosis, or pharmaceutical treatment. Trends were explored by sex, age, ethnicity, region, deprivation, and comorbidity.

We included 29 480 164 individuals who were followed up for 12.5 years on average (s.d. = 6.4 years). The recorded incidence of CMD episodes was 55.9 per 1000 person-years in 2000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 55.8–56.1], increasing to 79.6 per 1000 person-years in 2019 (95% CI 79.5–79.8). Females had higher recorded incidence rates, as did those living in more deprived areas. We observed striking patterns by age over time, with rates in ages 16–24 increasing from 40.2 per 1000 in 2000 (95% CI 39.8–40.5), to 107.8 per 1000 in 2019 (95% CI 107.0–108.6). In contrast, the rates in those aged ≥55 years decreased since 2014. There were differing patterns of incidence by ethnic group, with a steeper increase in Asian, Black, and mixed groups in recent years.

Overall, the incidence of recorded CMD in the UK general practice increased between 2000 and 2019 with a small decrease in 2020. The overall trends obscured important differences across population subgroups, which may have implications for prevention.

CHD refers to structural cardiac abnormalities which comprise the commonest group of congenital malformations. Malta is a small island in the central Mediterranean with excellent diagnostic and therapeutic facilities. It is unique in the European population as termination of pregnancy is illegal. This study was carried out to ascertain patterns in CHD prevalence in comparison with EUROCAT data (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies).

Anonymised data were obtained from the EUROCAT website for 1993–2020.

There were a total of 22,833,032 births from all EUROCAT Registries, of which 121,697 were from Malta. The prevalence rate for Malta CHD was 32.38/10,000 births (at the higher end of the range). Malta had a significant excess of commoner, comparatively non-severe CHDs. For most of the severe lesions analysed rates reported were higher than EUROCAT average, however, apart from Ebstein’s anomaly, they all fell within the ranges reported from the different registries.

Wide variations in reported CHD prevalence are known, and the Malta rates may be higher for milder defects due to quicker pickup prior to spontaneous resolution. There may also be a higher pickup of milder forms of more severe conditions. For the more severe conditions, lack of termination may be the explanation. These factors may result in the higher neonatal mortality observed in Malta.

Despite a substantial epidemiological literature on the incidence of psychotic disorders in Ireland, no systematic review has previously been undertaken. Such evidence can help inform understanding of need for psychosis care.

We conducted a prospectively registered systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42021245891) following PRISMA guidelines. We searched four databases (Medline, PsycInfo, Web of Science, Embase) for papers containing incidence data on non-organic psychotic disorders, in people 16–64 years, published between 1950 and 2021 in the general adult population. We conducted duplicate screening, risk of bias assessments, and extracted data to a standardised template. We undertook a narrative synthesis for each major diagnostic outcome. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted for comparisons with ≥5 incidence rates.

Our search yielded 1975 non-duplicate citations, of which 23 met inclusion criteria, containing incidence data ascertained between 1974 and 2016 (median study quality: 5/8; interquartile range: 4–6). Incidence of all psychotic disorders (N = 4 studies) varied from 22.0 (95%CI: 17.3–28.0) in Dublin to 34.1 per 100,000 person-years (95%CI: 31.0–37.5) in Cavan and Monaghan. The pooled incidence of schizophrenia (N = 6 studies, N = 8 settings) was 20.0 per 100,000 person-years, though with imprecision around this estimate (95%CI: 10.6–37.5; I2: 97.6%). Higher rates of most outcomes were observed in men. There was consistent evidence of raised rates in more deprived and fragmented social environments, but no clear pattern by rural-urban status.

Patterns of incidence of psychotic disorders in Ireland are broadly consistent with the wider literature from the Global North. Findings could help identify populations at higher risk of psychosis in Ireland.

Extensive evidence indicates that rates of psychotic disorder are elevated in more urban compared with less urban areas, but this evidence largely originates from Northern Europe. It is unclear whether the same association holds globally. This study examined the association between urban residence and rates of psychotic disorder in catchment areas in India (Kancheepuram, Tamil Nadu), Nigeria (Ibadan, Oyo), and Northern Trinidad.

Comprehensive case detection systems were developed based on extensive pilot work to identify individuals aged 18–64 with previously untreated psychotic disorders residing in each catchment area (May 2018–April/May/July 2020). Area of residence and basic demographic details were collected for eligible cases. We compared rates of psychotic disorder in the more v. less urban administrative areas within each catchment area, based on all cases detected, and repeated these analyses while restricting to recent onset cases (<2 years/<5 years).

We found evidence of higher overall rates of psychosis in more urban areas within the Trinidadian catchment area (IRR: 3.24, 95% CI 2.68–3.91), an inverse association in the Nigerian catchment area (IRR: 0.68, 95% CI 0.51–0.91) and no association in the Indian catchment area (IRR: 1.18, 95% CI 0.93–1.52). When restricting to recent onset cases, we found a modest positive association in the Indian catchment area.

This study suggests that urbanicity is associated with higher rates of psychotic disorder in some but not all contexts outside of Northern Europe. Future studies should test candidate mechanisms that may underlie the associations observed, such as exposure to violence.