We present the first simulations of Jakobshavn Isbrae (Sermeq Kujalleq), west Greenland, using a 3D Stokes calving model that permits unrestricted advance and retreat. Using the position-based crevasse-depth calving law, the model is applied to simulate the calving dynamics of 2016–2017 season when Jakobshavn Isbrae is assumed to be stable because of the presence of a strong proglacial ice mélange. The calving law needs to be adjusted to avoid an underestimation of calving, but once adjusted the calving model simulates seasonal calving dynamics that reflect observed calving-driven retreat very well. We find that a crevasse penetration threshold of 94.5% best matches observations from satellite imagery. Additional, 2-year transient simulations show that although ice mélange is essential to the glacier's winter readvance, when removed, the glacier only retreats a couple of kilometres before reaching a stable position. While the backstress provided by the ice mélange allows the glacier to advance beyond this point, the retreated terminus position is determined by a combination of bed geometry and glacier dynamics. Ultimately, while the ice mélange allows winter readvance, cessation of the well-documented rapid retreat of Jakobshavn Isbrae will be influenced by the bed geometry.

Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d−1 in 2019 to 2.85 m d−1 by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt.

Greenland's marine- and land-terminating glaciers are retreating inland due to climate warming, reconfiguring the way the ice sheet interacts with its proglacial environment. Here we use three decades of satellite imagery to determine whether the ice-sheet margin is becoming more or less exposed to marine and lacustrine processes. During our 1990–2019 study period, we find that the length of ice-sheet perimeter in contact with the ocean shrank by 12.3 ± 3.8% (196.2 ± 10.4 km), due to the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers into narrower fjords. On the other hand, we find that the length of the ice-sheet perimeter in contact with freshwater lakes exhibited more divergent trends that is better explored at regional scales. The length of ice–lake boundaries increased in southwest, north and northwest Greenland but declined in southeast and central east Greenland. The magnitude of change we document during our study period leads us to conclude that the ice sheet is poised for further, substantial reconfiguration in the coming decades with consequences for the flux of fresh water, nutrients and primary productivity in Greenland's terrestrial and oceanic environment.

Basal channels, which are troughs carved into the undersides of ice shelves by buoyant plumes of water, are modulators of ice-shelf basal melt and structural stability. In this study, we track the evolution of 12 large basal channels beneath ice shelves of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas region in West Antarctica using the Landsat record since its start in the 1970s through 2020. We observe examples of channel growth, interactions with ice-shelf features, and systematic changes in sinuosity that give insight into the life cycles of basal channels. We use the last two decades of the record, combined with contemporary ice-flow velocity datasets, to separate channel-path evolution into components related to advection by ice flow and those controlled by other forcings, such as ocean melt or surface accumulation. Our results show that ice-flow-independent lateral channel migration is overwhelmingly to the left when viewed down-flow, suggesting that it is dominated by Coriolis-influenced ocean melt. By applying a model of channel-path evolution dominantly controlled by ice flow and ocean melt, we show that the majority of channels surveyed exhibit non-steady behavior that serves as a novel proxy for increased ocean forcing in West Antarctica starting at least in the early 1970s.

Ice tongues are unconfined by land on their lateral margins and are sensitive to external forcing from the ocean. They are found sporadically around the Antarctic coast but are common in the western Ross Sea. Lateral flexure creates bending stresses within these ice tongues which is likely to contribute to their fragility and may restrict their spatial distribution. A three-year time series (2017–2020) of synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) and differential interferometry (DInSAR) is used to observe the lateral flexure of the 10 km long Erebus Ice Tongue as a result of ocean currents. The fast ice area around the ice tongue was mapped during the same period. It was found that when fast ice was absent (34.7% of the time), the average lateral movement of the ice tongue was twice as high (0.44 m) as when it was embedded in fast ice (0.19 m). A significant correlation (0.45) between flexure and tidal currents was found when fast ice was absent. An analytical model tuned to observations suggests that even without sea ice for stabilisation, the lateral bending stresses induced by the ocean are insufficient to cause calving without additional amplifying factors.

Upernavik Isstrøm, the largest contributor to sea-level rise in northwest Greenland, has experienced complex and contrasting ice-flow-speed changes across its five outlets over the last two decades. In this study, we present a detailed remote-sensing analysis of the ice dynamics at Upernavik's outlets from 2000 to 2021 to evaluate the details of these changes. Previous research suggested that the presence or absence of floating ice tongues strongly influences Upernavik's ice dynamics. We use several lines of evidence to document the presence of floating ice tongues, and find that, while several outlets experienced ice-tongue formation and/or loss during the study period, these changes do not explain observed fluctuations in ice-flow velocity. Further exploration of ice-dynamic forcings using a flowline model suggests that changes in basal slipperiness near the terminus have a strong impact on upstream ice dynamics and can explain the velocity variations. Our results suggest that speed fluctuations at Upernavik's outlets may be seasonally and interannually controlled by bed conditions near the terminus, and highlight the need for further research on the influence of basal conditions on complex tidewater glacier dynamics.

Both submarine melt and calving are important for the overall mass balance of marine-terminating glaciers, but uncertainty is rife with regards to the magnitude of the processes. Modelling allows for these processes to be investigated without the need to visit inaccessible ice marginal zones. This study looks at the impact of different submarine melt and sea-ice back pressure scenarios on modelled calving activity and dynamics at Kronebreen, Svalbard, by running separate summer and winter simulations with various submarine melt parameterisations and sea-ice characteristics. It is found that submarine melt is an important driver of seasonal variation in modelled glacier dynamics and calving activity, with the choice of sliding law also exerting a significant influence on results.

The hypothesis that ice-sheet evolution is only controlled by the long-term non-Newtonian viscous behavior of ice has been challenged by observations indicating that effects like brittle failure, stick-slip sliding, tides and wave action may affect ice-sheet evolution on sub-daily timescales. Over these timescales, the quasi-static-creep approximation is no longer appropriate and elastic effects become important. Simulating elastic effects in ice-sheet models over relevant timescales, however, remains challenging. Here, we show that by including a visco-elastic rheology and reintroducing the oft neglected acceleration term back into the ice-sheet stress balance, we can create a visco-elastic system where the velocity is locally determined and information propagates at the elastic wave speed. Crucially, the elastic wave speed can be treated like an adjustable parameter and set to any value to reproduce a range of phenomena, provided the wave speed is large compared to the viscous velocity. We illustrate the system using three examples. The first two examples demonstrate that the system converges to the steady-state viscous and elastic limits. The third example examines ice-shelf rifting and iceberg calving. This final example hints at the utility of the visco-elastic formulation in treating both long-term evolution and short-term environmental effects.

Progress in our understanding of wave–ice interactions is currently hindered by the lack of in situ observations and information of sea-ice properties, including the elastic modulus. Here, we estimate the effective elastic modulus of sea ice using observations of waves in ice through the deployment of three open-source geophone recorders on landfast sea ice. From observations of low-frequency dispersive waves, we obtain an estimate of the effective elastic modulus in the range of 0.4–0.7 GPa. This is lower than the purely elastic modulus of the ice estimated at 1 GPa as derived from in situ beam experiments. Importantly, our experimental observation is significantly lower than the default value currently in use in wave models. While our estimate is not representative for all sea ice, it does indicate that considerably more measurements are required to provide confidence in the development of parameterizations for this complex sea-ice property for wave models.

Changes in iceberg calving fluxes and oceanographic conditions around Antarctica have likely influenced the spatial and temporal distribution of iceberg fresh water fluxes to the surrounding ocean basins. However, Antarctic iceberg melt rate estimates have been limited to very large icebergs in the open ocean. Here we use a remote-sensing approach to estimate iceberg melt rates from 2011 to 2022 for 15 study sites around Antarctica. Melt rates generally increase with iceberg draft and follow large-scale variations in ocean temperature: maximum melt rates for the western peninsula, western ice sheet, eastern ice sheet and eastern peninsula are ~50, ~40, ~5 and ~5 m a−1, respectively. Iceberg melt sensitivity to thermal forcing varies widely, with a best-estimate increase in melting of ~24 m a−1°C−1 and range from near-zero to ~100 m a−1°C−1. Variations in water shear likely contribute to the apparent spread in thermal forcing sensitivity across sites. Although the sensitivity of iceberg melt rates to water shear prevents the use of melt rates as a proxy to infer coastal water mass temperature variability, additional coastal iceberg melt observations will likely improve models of Southern Ocean fresh water fluxes and have potential for subglacial discharge plume mapping.

The Ward Hunt and Milne ice shelves are the present-day remnants of a much larger ice shelf that once fringed the coast of Ellesmere Island, Canada. These ice shelves possess a unique surface morphology consisting of wave-like rolls that run parallel to the shoreline. Setting aside the question of how these rolls originally developed, we consider the impact of this roll morphology on the stability of the ice shelf. In particular, we examine whether periodic variations in ice-shelf thickness and water depth implied by the rolls prevent the excitation of Lamb waves in the ice shelf. Using a hierarchy of numerical models, we find that there are band gaps in the flexural and extensional modes of the ice shelf, implying the existence of frequency ranges that lack wave motion. We show that an ice shelf with rolls is able to reflect waves in these frequency ranges that are incident upon its ice front, thereby mitigating undue stress and calving. We speculate that the roll morphology provides a “fitness” for survival that explains why rolls are observed in the oldest and thickest multiyear sea ice of the Arctic.

Future projections of sea-level rise under strong warming scenarios are dominated by mass loss in the marine-grounded sectors of West Antarctica, where thinning shelves as a result of warming oceans can lead to reduced buttressing. This consequently leads to accelerated flow from the upstream grounded ice. However, the relation between warming oceans and increased melt rates under the shelves is very uncertain, especially when interactions with the changing shelf geometry are considered. Here, we compare six widely used, highly parameterised formulations relating sub-shelf melt to thermal forcing. We implemented them in an ice-sheet model, and applied the resulting set-up to an idealised-geometry setting, as well as to the Antarctic ice sheet. In our simulations, the differences in modelled ice-sheet evolution resulting from the choice of parameterisation, as well as the choice of numerical scheme used to apply sub-shelf melt near the grounding line, generally are larger than differences from ice-dynamical processes such as basal sliding, as well as uncertainties from the forcing scenario of the model providing the ocean forcing. This holds for the idealised-geometry experiments as well as for the experiments using a realistic Antarctic topography.

Frontal ablation, the combination of submarine melting and iceberg calving, changes the geometry of a glacier's terminus, influencing glacier dynamics, the fate of upwelling plumes and the distribution of submarine meltwater input into the ocean. Directly observing frontal ablation and terminus morphology below the waterline is difficult, however, limiting our understanding of these coupled ice–ocean processes. To investigate the evolution of a tidewater glacier's submarine terminus, we combine 3-D multibeam point clouds of the subsurface ice face at LeConte Glacier, Alaska, with concurrent observations of environmental conditions during three field campaigns between 2016 and 2018. We observe terminus morphology that was predominately overcut (52% in August 2016, 63% in May 2017 and 74% in September 2018), accompanied by high multibeam sonar-derived melt rates (4.84 m d−1 in 2016, 1.13 m d−1 in 2017 and 1.85 m d−1 in 2018). We find that periods of high subglacial discharge lead to localized undercut discharge outlets, but adjacent to these outlets the terminus maintains significantly overcut geometry, with an ice ramp that protrudes 75 m into the fjord in 2017 and 125 m in 2018. Our data challenge the assumption that tidewater glacier termini are largely undercut during periods of high submarine melting.

Cryogenic brines are under-studied, despite the fact that they may contain information about past ice-sheet behavior. Cryogenic brines form through cryoconcentration of seawater, although the specific setting and mechanism of formation have been debated. Previous conceptual models of brine formation require seawater isolation from the ocean in a closed basin experiencing freezing. We propose instead that they may form in pore spaces of marine sediments subjected to repeat cycles of ice-sheet advance and retreat. During periods of basal freezing, cryoconcentration produces hypersaline brines which experience downward flow driven by unstable density stratification. Our advection-diffusion model of porewater chemistry evolution successfully recreates the porewater chemistry of two deep Antarctic cores containing cryogenic brines (AND-1B and AND-2A), suggesting that cryogenic brines can be formed through the repeated isolation and cryoconcentration of marine waters within subglacial sediment pore spaces of modern and past ice sheets.

At any one time 130 000 icebergs are afloat in the Southern Ocean; 97% of these are too small to be registered in current satellite-based databases, yet the melting of these small icebergs provides a major input to the Southern Ocean. We use a unique set of visual size observations of 53 000 icebergs in the South Atlantic Ocean, the SCAR International Iceberg Database, to derive average iceberg dissolution rates. Fracture into two parts is the dominant dissolution process for tabular icebergs, with an average half-life of 30 days for icebergs <4 km length and 60 days for larger icebergs. Complete shatter producing many icebergs <1 km length is rare. A side attrition rate of 0.23 m d−1 combined with drift speed of 6 km d−1, or any proportional change in both numbers fits the observed changes in iceberg distribution. The largest injection into the Southern Ocean of fresh water and any iceberg-transported material takes place in a ~2.3 × 10⁶ km2 zone extending east-northeast from the Antarctic Peninsula to the Greenwich meridian. The iceberg contribution to salinities and temperatures, with maximum contribution north of the Weddell Sea, differs in some regions, from those indicated by tracking large icebergs.

Sea level rise contributions from the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) are strongly modulated by the backstress that its floating extension – Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS) – exerts on the adjoining grounded ice. The front of PIIS has recently retreated significantly via calving, and satellite and theoretical analyses have suggested further retreat is inevitable. As well as inducing an instantaneous increase in ice flow, retreat of the PIIS front may result in increased ocean melting, by relaxing the topographic barrier to warm ocean water that is currently provided by a prominent seabed ridge. Recently published research (Bradley and others, 2022a) has shown that PIIS may exhibit a strong melting response to calving, with melting close to the PIG grounding line always increasing with ice front retreat. Here, we summarise this research and, additionally, place the results in a glaciological context by comparing the impact of melt-induced and ice-dynamical changes in the ice shelf thinning rate. We find that while PIG is expected to experience rapid acceleration in response to further ice front retreat, the mean instantaneous thinning response is set primarily by changes in melting, rather than ice dynamics. Overall, further ice front retreat is expected to lead to enhanced ice-shelf thinning, with potentially detrimental consequences for ice shelf stability.

We revise and evaluate frontal ablation fluxes obtained by the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) for Greenland's tidewater peripheral glaciers de-coupled from the ice sheet. By making use of new region-wide ice thickness and solid ice discharge data, we re-evaluate model performance and suggest future research directions to improve the ice thickness estimation of glacier models. OGGM is unable to predict individual tidewater glacier dynamics well if it has to rely only on surface mass balance estimates and the assumption of a closed budget to constrain the calving parameterization. Velocity observations are essential to constrain the model and estimate the dynamic mass loss of Greenland's tidewater peripheral glaciers.

Basal channels, which form where buoyant plumes of ocean water and meltwater carve troughs upwards into ice-shelf bases, are widespread on Antarctic ice shelves. The formation of these features modulates ice-shelf basal melt by influencing the flow of buoyant plumes, and influences structural stability through concentration of strain and interactions with fractures. Because of these effects, and because basal channels can change rapidly, on timescales similar to those of ice-shelf evolution, constraining the impacts of basal channels on ice shelves is necessary for predicting future ice-shelf destabilization and retreat. We suggest that future research priorities should include constraining patterns and rates of basal channel change, determining mechanisms and detailed patterns of basal melt, and quantifying the influence that channel-related fractures have on ice-shelf stability.

The Antarctic Peninsula's widespread glacier retreat and ice shelf collapse have been attributed to atmospheric and oceanic warming. Following the initial post-collapse period of retreat, several former tributary glaciers of the Larsen A and B ice shelves have been slowly re-advancing for more than a decade. Here, we use a flowline model of Crane Glacier to gauge the sensitivity of former tributary glaciers to future climate change following this period of long-term dynamic adjustment. The glacier's long-term geometry and speed changes are similar to those of other former Larsen A and B tributaries, suggesting that Crane Glacier is a reasonable representation of regional dynamics. For the unperturbed climate simulations, discharge remains nearly unchanged in 2018–2100, indicating that dynamic readjustment to shelf collapse took ~15 years. Despite large uncertainties in Crane Glacier's past and future climate forcing, a wide range of future climate scenarios leads to a relatively modest range in grounding line discharge (0.8–1.5 Gt a−1) by 2100. Based on the model results for Crane, we infer that although former ice shelf tributaries may readvance following collapse, similar to the tidewater glacier cycle, their dynamic response to future climate perturbations should be less than their response to ice shelf collapse.

Antarctica's ice shelves stabilize the ice sheet and, therefore, understanding processes affecting the mass budgets of ice shelves is important for estimating grounded ice loss. To study the ice shelf dynamics, we analyzed seismological and GNSS data from the Ekström Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land. We extracted probabilistic power spectral densities (PPSD) in the frequency band 3.4–6.8 Hz, typical of icequakes, from seismological data and observed pronounced signals in the PPSD with near 3 and 4 cycles per day (cpd) corresponding to tidal overharmonics, in addition to the main tidal constituents near 1 and 2 cpd. GNSS data reveal the same components in ice flow speed but not in vertical displacements. Generally, tide-induced grounding line migration modulates the flow velocity of an entire ice shelf. We find that this velocity modulation causes the increased icequake activity in the tidal overharmonics with 3 and 4 cpd in an ice shear zone where the flow velocity drops to nearly zero.