We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.
To save content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about saving content to .
To save content items to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected]
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Longevity risk is threatening the sustainability of traditional pension systems. To deal with this issue, decumulation strategies alternative to annuities have been proposed in the literature. However, heterogeneity in mortality experiences in the pool of policyholders due to socio-economic classes generates inequity, because of implicit wealth transfers from the more disadvantaged to the wealthier classes. We address this issue in a Group Self-Annuitization (GSA) scheme in the presence of stochastic mortality by proposing a redistributive GSA scheme where benefits are optimally shared across classes. The expected present values of the benefits in a standard GSA scheme show relevant gaps across socio-economic groups, which are reduced in the redistributive GSA scheme. We explore sensitivity to pool size, interest rates and mortality assumptions.
This paper reviews two important design choices for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). First, how CBDC intermediaries should be compensated for their services. Second, how payments from traditional banks into CBDC wallets should be cleared. Both of these design choices have important implications for the financial stability of the banking system.
We use the 529 college savings plan setting to investigate whether and why households make suboptimal choices to invest in local assets. We estimate that 67% of open accounts between 2010 and 2020 were located suboptimally due to the plans’ tax inefficiencies and high expenses. Over the accounts’ projected lifetimes, such investments yielded expected losses of 8% on average or $15.6 billion in 2020 alone. We then investigate why suboptimal investment is so prevalent. Consistent with households’ lack of understanding of state-level tax benefits, we find that a meaningful proportion of households does not account for the potential tax benefits and costs of local versus nonlocal 529 investment. Household financial literacy and plan disclosure complexity appear to explain suboptimal investment patterns, which further supports the role of information-processing frictions. Our study presents novel evidence on individuals’ preferences for local assets and how information-processing frictions shape their investment decisions, reducing their financial well-being.
Our study investigates the influence of the Korean National Pension Fund's equity ownership on voting premiums, revealing a statistically significant reduction. In particular, we establish the liquidity pathway as the primary factor among the three channels previously suggested in the literature. Analysis of the COVID-19 era and the VKospi index underscores this predominance. These findings enrich the literature on public pension funds and capital markets, providing policymakers in emerging economies with a deeper understanding of the dynamics involved in establishing pension investment institutions.
This article studies a previously unknown asset market in eighteenth-century Sweden. It emerged as a result of a partial default in 1719, when large amounts of recently released fiat coins were converted into government liabilities. These could only be redeemed as a customs duty on international trade, the licent. As merchants had to acquire such assets to conduct their trade, tens of thousands of transactions were carried out on a secondary market over a period of more than 45 years. Networks of local merchants bought assets from initial holders and sold them on to intermediaries or merchants, who deposited the liabilities with a newly established government agency, the Debt Office. Here, hundreds of account holders could transfer the value of their deposits between them. When a licent payment was due, the amount was deducted from the merchant's account. Prices on the liabilities were low and sometimes volatile, but the long-term trend was rising. We have distinguished three types of market participants: a small group of very active users, most of them professional dealers or brokers; merchants who traded on a regular basis as they needed to pay the licent, or when a favorable opportunity appeared; and finally, those who traded sporadically. The emergence of this market was part of a financial expansion that occurred in many European countries at the same time, the closest equivalent being the segmented default in France after the abolition of John Law's system. This study aims to broaden our understanding of eighteenth-century financial developments, which have rarely been studied in a semi-peripheral European economy.
Target date funds (TDFs) provide retirement investors, many of whom are unsophisticated or inattentive, with age-appropriate exposures to different asset classes like stocks and bonds. To maintain exposures, TDFs trade actively against market returns, buying stock funds when the stock market does poorly, and selling when the market does well (Parker et al., 2023, Journal of Finance). This paper shows that trading by TDFs was a significant stabilizing force in US equity markets during the unprecedented economic volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Specifically, TDFs – now comprising a quarter of all 401(k) plan assets – caused significant contrarian investment flows across asset classes, flows that were not undone by enrollment of TDF investors or by discretionary actions by TDF managers. Mutual funds with large ownership by TDFs had more stable funding through the pandemic, and stocks that had greater indirect ownership by TDFs had lower co-movement with the market and lower volatility during the pandemic period.
This article contributes to the literature analysing the role of public banks in crises. Taking the case of Spain, it analyses the behaviour of the public bank (ICO) between 1971 and 2015, specifically during two crises: the crisis of the 1970s, when Spain was an economically backward country coming out of a dictatorship; and that of 2008–13, by which time it had integrated into the international economy. Public credit underwent sweeping privatization in 1991, which translated into major downsizing. From then on, a gradual process of modernization began, mainly characterized by institutional changes in governance and access to resources. Our results indicate that public and private credit behave differently during recessions. Private credit always remains closely synchronized with the business cycle, but public credit less so.
This paper examines global data on unbanked and underbanked consumers to highlight the role improved financial literacy and capability could play in motivating and enabling the safe and beneficial use of financial services. The paper uses Global Findex data, a demand-side survey on ownership and use of accounts at formal financial institutions, such as a bank or similar financial institution, or a mobile money service provider. The paper reviews the self-reported barriers to account ownership and use cited by unbanked adults and identifies the challenges faced by account owners who could not use an account without help. Together, these issues point to the importance of financial education to improve digital and financial literacy skills, in addition to product design that considers customer abilities, and strong consumer safeguards to ensure that customers benefit from financial access.
This article examines the G-Fund, which is one of the five funds in the federal government employee retirement Thrift Savings Plan. The G-Fund is held as internal debt by the U.S. Department of Treasury. Our examination shows that the fund balance is exclusively composed of 1-day notes that are redeemed/reissued every business day, generating $55 trillion in annual debt reissuance. We also show that the fund balance drops substantially as resources are transferred to the general fund when the government is constrained by a debt ceiling and returns to pre-constraint levels when the ceiling is expanded/suspended.
This article evaluates the Australian retirement system using a framework of justice. Justice (alternatively, equity or fairness) is taken as requiring a full consideration of the criteria of needs, equality, liberty and just deserts, as well as matters of efficiency. Inequity occurs when the interests of weaker stakeholders are given inadequate consideration. Applying these criteria suggests that the Australian retirement system intrudes on the liberty of some groups of stakeholders inconsistently and inappropriately in mandating contributions at younger ages particularly, and by the imposition of unnecessarily bureaucratic means tests. It also fails to provide for the incapacitated older aged.
We investigate the cause of the increase in mortgage investments by pension funds after the financial crisis. We show that, after the introduction of the new financial assessment framework in 2015, funds that experienced larger reductions in the funding ratio during the 2008–2012 crisis invested more in mortgages. We test the hypothesis that a past recovery mode has motivated pension funds to invest more in mortgages after the crisis. Funds that seek to further hedge their interest rate risks aim for a different risk/return investment profile. Mortgages could contribute to a less risky portfolio, as they have become even safer since the introduction of several new regulations in 2013. Recovery modes after the crisis combined with the new framework are a cause of the recent surge in mortgage holding by pension funds; we find that this led to a 39% increase in their mortgage investments, despite the fact that these are still low relative to the overall investments of pension funds.
This article analyses trends in the development of the stock exchange in Jakarta between its stepwise institutionalisation since 1898 and its closure in 1942. The article contributes to literature on the significance of stock markets in the process of mobilising external capital for investment by private enterprise in emerging economies. It finds that the brokers participating in the stock exchange traded shares and bonds of companies operating in Indonesia and registered in Indonesia or in the Netherlands. Many of these securities were also traded on the much larger stock exchange in Amsterdam. Although formally independent, both securities markets were integrated. Based on estimates of relatively high market capitalisation during 1901–40, the article concludes that the Jakarta and Amsterdam stock exchanges together contributed significantly to the mobilisation of private investment and the development of private enterprise in Indonesia.
We study whether pension fund board governance relates to asset allocation. Pension funds with well-governed boards have greater international diversification, lower cash holdings, and, when pension funds are small, invest more in risky assets. In particular, pension fund boards that establish comprehensive investment policies invest more in equities, in foreign assets, and hold less cash. We argue that a comprehensive investment policy is likely to serve as a proxy for the financial expertise available to the fund while it provides the set up to facilitate decision making. Finally, we further show that the presence of external financial experts is also associated with lower cash holdings.
This study examines the role of pawnshops as a risk-coping device in Japan in the early twentieth century, when the poor were very vulnerable to unexpected shocks such as illness. In contrast to European countries, Japanese pawnshops were the primary financial institution for low-income people up to the 1920s. Using data on pawnshop loans for more than 250 municipalities and exploiting the 1918–20 influenza pandemic as a natural experiment, we find that the adverse health shock increased the total amount of loans from pawnshops. This is because those who regularly relied on pawnshops borrowed more money from them than usual, and not because the number of people who used pawnshops increased. Our estimation results indicate that pawnshop loan amounts increased by approximately 7–10 percent due to the pandemic. These findings suggest that pawnshop loans were widely used as a risk-coping strategy.
We examine the impact of asset allocation and contribution rates on the risk of defined benefit (DB) pension schemes, using both a run-off and a shorter 3-year time horizon. Using the 3-year horizon, which is typically preferred by regulators, a high bond allocation reduces the spread of the distribution of surplus. However, this result is reversed when examined on a run-off basis. Furthermore, under both the 3-year horizon and the run-off, the higher bond allocation reduces the median level of surplus. Pressure on the affordability of DB schemes has led to widespread implementation of the so-called de-risking strategies, such as moving away from predominantly equity investments to greater bond investments. If the incentives produced by shorter term risk assessments are contributing to this shift, they might be harming the long-term financial health of the schemes. Contribution rates have relatively lower impact on the risk.
This study investigates herd behavior exhibited by pension funds in the sovereign bond market before, during and after the European debt crisis. It uses unique monthly data on sovereign bond holdings of pension funds and transactions between December 2008 and December 2014. The dataset covers 67 large Dutch pension funds that invest in bonds from 109 countries. We find evidence of intensive herd behavior of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bonds. We also distinguish between European countries which suffer from the European debt crisis, such as Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, and those that have not. We find high sell herding and low buy herding for the crisis countries during the European debt crisis, whereas in the non-crisis period their herd behavior does not differ substantially from that in non-crisis countries. When we control for institutional, macroeconomic, financial market and pension fund factors, sell herding in crisis countries is still significantly higher. However, we find no evidence of destabilizing behavior with respect to bonds of crisis countries during the European debt crisis.
Target date funds (TDFs) are becoming increasingly popular investment choices among investors with long-term prospects. Examples include members of superannuation funds seeking to save for retirement at a given age. TDFs provide efficient risk exposures to a diversified range of asset classes that dynamically match the risk profile of the investment payoff as the investors age. This is often achieved by making increasingly conservative asset allocations over time as the retirement date approaches. Such dynamically evolving allocation strategies for TDFs are often referred to as glide paths. We propose a systematic approach to the design of optimal TDF glide paths implied by retirement dates and risk preferences and construct the corresponding dynamic asset allocation strategy that delivers the optimal payoffs at minimal costs. The TDF strategies we propose are dynamic portfolios consisting of units of the growth-optimal portfolio (GP) and the risk-free asset. Here, the GP is often approximated by a well-diversified index of multiple risky assets. We backtest the TDF strategies with the historical returns of the S&P500 total return index serving as the GP approximation.
The transition from defined benefit to defined contribution (DC) pension schemes has increased the interest in target annuitization funds that aim to fund a minimum level of retirement income. Prior literature has studied the optimal investment strategies for DC funds that provide minimum guarantees, but far less attention has been given to portfolio insurance strategies for DC pension funds focusing on retirement income targets. We evaluate the performance of option-based and constant proportion portfolio insurance strategies for a DC fund that targets a minimum level of inflation-protected annuity income at retirement. We show how the portfolio allocation to an equity fund varies depending on the member’s age upon joining the fund, displaying a downward trend through time for members joining the fund before ages in the mid-30s. We demonstrate how both portfolio insurance strategies provide strong protection against downside equity risk in financing a minimum level of retirement income. The option-based strategy generally leads to higher accumulated savings at retirement, whereas the constant proportion strategy provides better downside risk protection robust to equity market jumps/volatilities.
The purpose of this paper is to identify a workhorse mortality model for the adult age range (i.e., excluding the accident hump and younger ages). It applies the “general procedure” (GP) of Hunt & Blake [(2014), North American Actuarial Journal, 18, 116–138] to identify an age-period model that fits the data well before adding in a cohort effect that captures the residual year-of-birth effects arising in the original age-period model. The resulting model is intended to be suitable for a variety of populations, but economises on the number of period effects in comparison with a full implementation of the GP. We estimate the model using two different iterative maximum likelihood (ML) approaches – one Partial ML and the other Full ML – that avoid the need to specify identifiability constraints.
In many policy areas it is essential to use the best estimates of life expectancy, but it is vital to most areas of pension policy. This paper presents the conceptual differences between static period and dynamic cohort mortality tables, estimates the differences in life expectancy for Portugal and Spain, and compares official estimates of both life expectancy estimates for Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States for 1981, 2010, and 2060. These comparisons reveal major differences between period and cohort life expectancy in and between countries and across years. The implications of using wrong estimates for pension policy, including financial sustainability, are explored.