We propose a stochastic model describing a process of awareness, evaluation, and decision making by agents on the d-dimensional integer lattice. Each agent may be in any of the three states belonging to the set {0, 1, 2. In this model 0 stands for ignorants, 1 for aware, and 2 for adopters. Aware and adopters inform its nearest ignorant neighbors about a new product innovation at rate λ. At rate α an agent in aware state becomes an adopter due to the influence of adopters' neighbors. Finally, aware and adopters forget the information about the new product, thus becoming ignorant, at rate 1. Our purpose is to analyze the influence of the parameters on the qualitative behavior of the process. We obtain sufficient conditions under which the innovation diffusion (and adoption) either becomes extinct or propagates through the population with positive probability.

The susceptible→exposed→infectious→susceptible (SEIS) model is well known in mathematical epidemiology as a model of infection in which there is a latent period between the moment of infection and the onset of infectiousness. The compartment model is well studied, but the corresponding particle system has so far received no attention. For the particle system model in one spatial dimension, we give upper and lower bounds on the critical values, prove convergence of critical values in the limit of small and large latent time, and identify a limiting process to which the SEIS model converges in the limit of large latent time.

We consider a class of multi-type particle systems whose structure is similar to that of a contact process and show that additivity is equivalent to the existence of a dual process, extending a result of Harris. We prove a necessary and sufficient condition for the model to preserve positive correlations. We then show that complete convergence on Zd holds for a large subclass of models including the two-stage contact process and a household model, and give examples.

In this paper, we continue the work started by Steve Krone on the two-stage contact process. We give a simplified proof of the duality relation and answer most of the open questions posed in Krone (1999). We also fill in the details of an incomplete proof.

We study the growth of a population of bacteria in a dynamical hostile environment corresponding to the immune system of the colonized organism. The immune cells evolve as subcritical open clusters of oriented percolation and are perpetually reinforced by an immigration process, while the bacteria try to grow as a supercritical oriented percolation in the remaining empty space. We prove that the population of bacteria grows linearly when it survives. From this perspective, we build general tools to study dependent oriented percolation models issued from renormalization processes.

Many regenerative arguments in stochastic processes use random times which are akin to stopping times, but which are determined by the future as well as the past behaviour of the process of interest. Such arguments based on ‘conditioning on the future’ are usually developed in an ad-hoc way in the context of the application under consideration, thereby obscuring the underlying structure. In this paper we give a simple, unified, and more general treatment of such conditioning theory. We further give a number of novel applications to various particle system models, in particular to various flavours of contact processes and to infinite-bin models. We give a number of new results for existing and new models. We further make connections with the theory of Harris ergodicity.

We are concerned with the variation of the supercritical nearest-neighbours contact process such that first infection occurs at a lower rate; it is known that the process survives with positive probability. Regarding the rightmost infected of the process started from one site infected and conditioned to survive, we specify a sequence of space-time points at which its behaviour regenerates and, thus, obtain the corresponding strong law and central limit theorem. We also extend complete convergence in this case.

Nonspatial stochastic models of populations subject to catastrophic events result in the common conclusion that the survival probability of the population is nondecreasing with respect to the random number of individuals removed at each catastrophe. The purpose of this paper is to prove that such a monotonic relationship is not true for simple spatial models based on Harris' contact processes, whose dynamics are described by hypergraph structures rather than traditional graph structures. More precisely, it is proved that, for a wide range of parameters, the destruction of (infinite) hyperplanes does not affect the existence of a nontrivial invariant measure, whereas the destruction of large (finite) cubes drives the population to extinction, a result that we depict by using the biological picture: forest fires are more devastating than tornadoes. This indicates that the geometry of the subsets struck by catastrophes is somewhat more important than their area, thus the need to consider spatial rather than nonspatial models in this context.

We consider an interacting particle system on a graph which, from a macroscopic point of view, looks like ℤd and, at a microscopic level, is a complete graph of degree N (called a patch). There are two birth rates: an inter-patch birth rate λ and an intra-patch birth rate ϕ. Once a site is occupied, there is no breeding from outside the patch and the probability c(i) of success of an intra-patch breeding decreases with the size i of the population in the site. We prove the existence of a critical value λc(ϕ, c, N) and a critical value ϕc(λ, c, N). We consider a sequence of processes generated by the families of control functions {cn}n∈ℕ and degrees {Nn}n∈ℕ; we prove, under mild assumptions, the existence of a critical value nc(λ, ϕ, c). Roughly speaking, we show that, in the limit, these processes behave as the branching random walk on ℤd with inter-neighbor birth rate λ and on-site birth rate ϕ. Some examples of models that can be seen as particular cases are given.

We consider a stochastic SIS model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of n individuals that are equally spaced upon the circumference of a circle. Whilst infectious, an individual, i say, makes both local and global infectious contacts at the points of homogeneous Poisson point processes. Global contacts are made uniformly at random with members of the entire population, whilst local contacts are made according to a contact distribution centred upon the infective. Individuals at the end of their infectious period return to the susceptible state and can be reinfected. The emphasis of the paper is on asymptotic results as the population size n → ∞. Therefore, a contact process with global infection is introduced representing the limiting behaviour as n → ∞ of the circle epidemics. A branching process approximation for the early stages of the epidemic is derived and the endemic equilibrium of a major outbreak is obtained. Furthermore, assuming exponential infectious periods, the probability of a major epidemic outbreak and the proportion of the population infectious in the endemic equilibrium are shown to satisfy the same equation which characterises the epidemic process.

Positive correlations for extinction probabilities in the contact process are used to obtain rigorous lower bounds.

We show that a branching random walk that is supercritical on is also supercritical, in a rather strong sense, when restricted to a large enough finite ball of This implies that the critical value of branching random walks on finite balls converges to the critical value of branching random walks on as the radius increases to infinity. Our main result also implies coexistence of an arbitrary finite number of species for an ecological model.

We show that the second lowest invariant measure of the contact process, introduced by Salzano and Schonmann (1997), is stochastically lower that any invariant measure which puts no mass on the empty configuration.

The contact process is an interacting particle system which models a spatially restricted infection. In the basic contact process the infection can only spread to an uninfected neighbour, but the diffusive contact process allows an infected individual to move to an uninfected site. If the infection rate is too low, the process will die out. If the individual can move (or diffuse), the disease can spread with a lower infection rate. An idea of the relationship between these rates is obtained by obtaining rigorous lower bounds for the critical infection rate for various values of the diffusion rate. In this paper we also improve the lower bound for the critical infection rate for the basic contact process from 1.539 to 1.5517.

The estimation of critical values is one of the most interesting problems in the study of interacting particle systems. The bounds obtained analytically are not usually very tight and, therefore, computer simulation has been proved to be very useful in the estimation of these values. In this paper we present a new method for the estimation of critical values in any interacting particle system with an absorbing state. The method, based on the asymptotic behaviour of the absorption time of the process, is very easy to implement and provides good estimates. It can also be applied to processes different from particle systems.

Particles may be removed from a lattice by murder, coalescence, mutual annihilation and simple death. If the particle system is not to die out, the removed particles must be replaced by births. This letter shows that coalescence can be counteracted by arbitrarily small birth-rates and contrasts this with the situations for annihilation and pure death where there are critical phenomena. The problem is unresolved for murder.

We prove that for a contact process restricted to the cube [1,n]d and initially fully occupied, the time to die out, when it is suitably normalized, converges to an exponential random variable as n tends to infinity.

Interacting particle systems provide an attractive framework for modelling the growth and spread of biological populations and diseases. One problem with their use in applications is that in most cases the existing information about their critical values and equilibrium densities is too crude to be useful. In this paper we describe a method for estimating these quantities that does not require very much computer time and produces fairly accurate results.

We give upper bounds on the critical values for oriented percolation and some interacting particle systems by computing their behavior on small finite sets.