The economy has probably been expanding rather faster than we thought in August. Since the fourth quarter of 1962 total national output has been rising at an annual rate of 5-6 per cent, and industrial production, as would be expected during a recovery, has been rising faster—at a rate of about 7 per cent; for manufacturing output the figure is slightly above 7 per cent. This is consistent with the most recent FBI survey, which implies a rise in manufacturing output of about 2½ per cent during the four months May to September. There has been some rise in employment in recent months, though in the third quarter it may not have been much higher than in the fourth quarter of 1962. Unemployment has been falling rapidly. Over the four months May/June (by when all the effects of the cold winter must have disappeared) to September/October the downward trend was at a rate of about 12 thousand a month.

Plastics are already one of the world's main groups of industrial materials; in volume terms, world plastics consumption is now greater than that of all non-ferrous metals combined. The main point that emerges from international comparisons is West Germany's predominance in production and exports (and also in exports of plastics machinery). German production of plastic materials in 1961 was 19 kilograms per head, compared to 17½ in the United States and 12 in Britain. This is not due to lower costs. In material costs, Germany has been, if anything, at a disadvantage : she had only a small petro-chemicals industry in the early post-war years, and she has very little natural gas. In labour costs (which in any case are not very important in this industry) and in plant costs, again there is no evidence of any marked German advantage over her competitors. In general her quoted prices were not below those of other countries.

For some six years now the Federation of British Industries has been circulating a questionnaire to its members on industrial trends and prospects. The aim of this article is to assess the usefulness of the answers. The only practicable way to do this is to find a method of comparing the FBI results with official economic statistics. The FBI results will be helpful if they can be used to anticipate, confirm, supplement or on occasions correct the official series.