This research examines long-run changes in alcohol consumption patterns for the United States, at the state level, and presents forecasts for per capita consumption of beer, wine, and spirits developed using the ARIMA methodology. The evidence is then presented on the extent of convergence in consumption through time. This evidence shows that from the 1970s through the early 2000s, a pattern of convergence in both the level of consumption and the consumption mix was evident, but since the early 2000s, and unlike the pattern observed globally, there has been a reversal of this trend. The changes in consumption through time are illustrated via ternary plots. Bayesian estimation methods are used to formally describe changes in historical consumption patterns and to investigate the impact of policy settings on consumption forecasts. There were no systematic correlations found between alcohol policy settings and forecast future consumption changes, or tax rate levels and forecast consumption changes. (JEL Classifications: D12, I18, L66)

The purpose of this study is to examine how restaurants determine the percentage of wine mark-up. Wine sales are a substantial contributor to restaurants’ profitability, therefore a better understanding of the factors affecting mark-up is critical for the industry. Here, the mark-up is expressed as a percentage over the cost and refers to a cost-plus pricing strategy. Sommeliers from around the world, the majority of whom were members of the International Sommelier Association, were approached to complete our Internet-based questionnaire administered between February 2014 and May 2014. Of the 800 who began the survey, 267 fully completed the questionnaire, generating 1,869 observations. We regressed the declared percentage mark-up against restaurant and wine list characteristics, including managerial practices and wine steward characteristics, and showed that if the restaurants apply a simple rule of thumb to set wine prices, focusing on every price segment, it appears that sommeliers do not have much impact on the percentage mark-up. (JEL Classifications: C23, D21)

The market structure and recipes for beer has been rapidly changing with craft beers attracting more consumers. Perceived hops quality (hoppiness) is one of the main attributes that microbrewers alter to differentiate their products to satisfy consumers’ changing tastes and preferences. We hypothesize that, in addition to manipulating beer-processing conditions, the conditions under which the hops are grown may also influence the final sensory properties of the beer. Using hops from a field experiment coupled with sensory attributes and sociodemographic characteristics from a contingent valuation survey, we analyzed the impact of under-fertilized hop treatments during the growing season on consumers’ willingness to pay for beer. The results indicate that uninformed consumers in a blind tasting could identify the differences in beer made from hops across the fertilization treatments and, thus, implying that all else equal sufficient fertilizer is required to achieve satisfactory hoppiness for which consumers are willing to pay. (JEL Classifications: C91, D12, L66, Q11)

In this article, medium-run cycles in wine production in South Africa are extracted and related to similar cycles in real GDP per capita during the same period. In addition to removing noise in the historical data, smoothing out short-run fluctuations also eliminates the short-run impact on agricultural production due to idiosyncratic shocks such as weather events, wars, and vine diseases. By isolating the medium-run cycles, it is possible to verify the timing and duration of each cycle, matching it with the historical narrative. In this regard, a 300-year annual data series of South African wine production explains the evolution not only of one of the largest agricultural sectors, but of the South African economy in general. (JEL Classifications: C10, N57, Q10).

Statistics on the wine market in countries where it is not traditionally produced or consumed are estimates using simple methods. In northeast Asia those statistics are exaggerated for a combination of several reasons. One is a labelling issue: imported bulk wine is able to be added to domestically produced wine without the front label having to declare the bottle may contain foreign product. Similar freedom applies to wine made from imported grape juice concentrate. A second (particularly in China) is a double-counting issue: domestic wine produced in one region of the country may be blended with wine produced in and packaged for final sale from another region, with both regions claiming it as their contribution to national wine output. A third possibility is a smuggling issue: some wine re-exports and imports are unrecorded. These possibilities of the wine market being exaggerated are significant for firms seeking to export to and sell in such countries, especially in the fast-growing ones of northeast Asia. This article shows the extent to which estimates for the region could change for such indicators as per capita wine consumption, wine self-sufficiency, and the region's share of global wine consumption, when alternative assumptions are made in response to these issues. (JEL classifications: F14, L66, Q13, Y10)