The calculation of probabilities on pedigrees of arbitrary complexity is discussed for a basic model of transmission and penetrance (encompassing Mendelian inheritance, and certain environmental influences).

The structure of pedigrees, and the types of loops occurring, is discussed. Some results in graph theory are obtained and, using these, a recurrence relation derived for certain probabilities. The recursive procedure enables the successive peeling off of certain members of the pedigree, and the condensation of the information on those individuals into a function on a subset of those remaining. The underlying theory is set out, and examples given of the utilization of the resulting algorithm.

In a supercritical branching random walk on Rp, a Galton–Watson process with the additional feature that people have positions, let be the set of positions of the nth-generation people, scaled by the factor n–1. It is shown that when the process survives looks like a convex set for large n. An analogous result is established for an age-dependent branching process in which people also have positions. In certain cases an explicit formula for the asymptotic shape is given.

Markovian contact processes (mcp's) include some of the commoner models for the spatial spread of population processes, such as the ‘simple’ and ‘general’ epidemics, percolation processes, and birth, death and migration processes. They are here set in a framework which relates them to each other, and to a particular basic model, the contact birth process (cbp); indeed they are defined as modifications of the cbp. The immediate advantage of this is that bounds for the velocity of the cbp, which can be obtained from the linear equation describing its expected numbers (provided the contact distribution has exponentially bounded tail) apply also to general mcp's. Existence of moments (and for some processes their time-derivatives) of St(θ), the distance to the furthest individual in an arbitrary direction θ, can also be deduced whenever the corresponding moment of the contact distribution exists.

An important subclass consists of population-monotone mcp's, for which the distributions of St can be shown to be subconvolutive, so that the work of Hammersley (1974) can be applied to obtain convergence theorems for St/t; and these can be extended to convergence of the convex hull of the set of inhabited points. These results are particularly valuable because they apply to some non-linear processes, e.g. the simple epidemic. Some special results on the cbp (Section 6) emphasize the differences between linear and non-linear spatial stochastic processes.

Although the paper is written throughout in terms of continuous-time processes, the results on subconvolutive distributions are actually more easily applied in the discrete-time case. (Conversely, the approach used in the accompanying paper by Biggins (pp. 62–84), which is written in terms of discrete-time processes, can be extended to deal also with continuous-time processes.)

This paper considers the problem of estimating the growth rate ρ of a p-type Galton–Watson process {Zn}. To this end, a general approach of possible independent interest to central limit theorems for discrete-time branching processes is developed. The idea is to adapt martingale central limit theory to martingale difference triangular arrays indexed by the set of all individuals ever alive. Iterated logarithm laws are derived by similar methods. Asymptotic distribution results and the a.s. asymptotic behaviour are derived for a maximum likelihood estimator based upon all parent–offspring combinations in a given number N of generations, and for the estimator which depends on the total generation sizes only.

A random spatial series is a collection of random variables F(xi, · · ·, xn) depending on several spatial coordinates (x1, · · ·, xn). An attempt is made to construct a statistical second-order theory of such series when (x1, · · ·, xn) varies over a regular cartesian lattice. Using the properties of the linear (Hilbert) space associated with the series, the concepts of innovation and purely non-deterministic (p.n.d.) series are introduced. For a p.n.d. series F(x1, · · ·, xn) a unilateral representation is obtained in terms of a white innovations series Z(y1, · · ·, yn) where The representatation is specialized to the homogeneous case and we discuss spectral conditions for p.n.d. The familiar time-series condition ∫ log f(λ) dλ > –∞ on the spectral density f is necessary but not sufficient. A sufficient condition is stated. Motivated by the p.n.d. unilateral representation results we define unilateral arma (autoregressive-moving average) spatial series models. Stability and invertibility conditions are formulated in terms of the location of zero sets of polynomials relative to the unit polydisc in Cn, and a rigorous shift operator formalism is established. For autoregressive spatial series a Yule–Walker-type matrix equation is formulated and it is shown how this can be used to obtain estimates of the autoregressive parameters. It is demonstrated that under mild conditions the estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal.

The principal results of this paper concern the asymptotic behavior of the number of arcs in the optimal routes of first-passage percolation processes on the square lattice. Assuming that the underlying distribution has an atom at zero less than λ–1, where λ is the connectivity constant, Lp and (in some cases) almost sure convergence theorems are proved for the normalized route length processes. The proofs involve the extension of much of the existing theory of first-passage percolation to the case where negative time coordinates are permitted.