Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T12:27:31.788Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Why quantum probability does not explain the conjunction fallacy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 May 2013

Katya Tentori  and
Vincenzo Crupi
Katya Tentori
Affiliation:
Center for Mind/Brain Sciences (CIMeC), Department of Psychology and Cognitive Sciences (PSC), University of Trento, Palazzo Fedrigotti, Corso Bettini, n. 31, 38068 Rovereto, [email protected]://www.unitn.it/en/cimec/11750/katya-tentori
Vincenzo Crupi
Affiliation:
Dipartimento di Filosofia e Scienze, dell'Educazione, Via S. Ottavio 20, 10124 Torino, Italy. [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We agree with Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B) that formal tools can be fruitfully employed to model human judgment under uncertainty, including well-known departures from principles of classical probability. However, existing findings either contradict P&B's quantum probability approach or support it to a limited extent. The conjunction fallacy serves as a key illustration of both kinds of problems.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 36 , Issue 3 , June 2013 , pp. 308 - 310
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E. M., Franco, R. & Trueblood, J. S. (2011) A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors. Psychological Review 118(2):193–218.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Costello, F. J. (2009) How probability theory explains the conjunction fallacy. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 22:213–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crupi, V., Fitelson, B. & Tentori, K. (2008) Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy. Thinking & Reasoning 14:182–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nilsson, H., Winman, A., Juslin, P. & Hansson, G. (2009) Linda is not a bearded lady: Configural weighting and adding as the cause of extension errors. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 138:517–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tentori, K., Bonini, N. & Osherson, D. (2004) The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction? Cognitive Science 28:467–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tentori, K., Crupi, V. & Russo, S. (2013) On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: Confirmation versus probability. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 142: 235–55.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1982) Judgments of and by representativeness. In: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, ed. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A., pp. 84–98). Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar