The SALT I Agreements, concluded in 1972, are assessed with the benefit of several years’ perspective. This study examines the negotiations and agreements from the standpoint of achievements and shortcomings. It finds a number of each, but on balance a substantial positive achievement. SALT I marked a beginning to collaborative efforts at strategic arms control by the two superpowers, and in a number of respects—especially the ABM Treaty—it had a clear and favorable effect in mitigating the arms competition. The main shortcoming was the failure to reach significant restraints on strategic offensive arms, especially a ban on MIRV's at a time when that was still possible. Also, the pursuit of “bargaining chips” for arms negotiations can impede arms control and contribute to arms competition. An “oversell” étente and SALT in 1972 prompted a swing to undervaluing both in the late 1970's. netheless, on balance SALT I was a significant step forward.

This paper sets forth a preliminary theory of the substructure of Chinese politics. Power is based on an influential constituency in China as elsewhere, but here there are two types of such constituencies: the formal, consisting of an actor's bureaucratic colleagues and subordinates, which exerts formal power [ch'üan-li]; and the informal, consisting of interested family members, long-term friends, and protégés, which exerts informal influence [shih-li]. The support of the former may be relied upon during “nonantagonistic contradictions”; but if the contradiction becomes “antagonistic,” only the informal base is likely to be of any avail, because of the severe sanctions applied to any associate of an “enemy of the people.” The “Gang of Four” could be considered as “favorites” of Mao Tse-tung, inasmuch as their narrow and shallow “backgrounds” afforded them no constituency, formal or informal, aside from the Chairman himself. Their political actions were characterized by exclusive loyalty to their patron and by a disregard for the formal rules of the game. Sensitive to the long-range untenability of their positions, the Four sought to expand their base by appealing to the masses through the media and by building an incipient bureaucratic constituency. Their ultimate failure may be attributed not only to their ineptitude at base-building, but to the inherent limitations of their positions in an increasingly determinate bureaucratic-political game.

Strategic intelligence failures cannot be prevented by organizational solutions to problems of analysis and communication. Analytic certainty is precluded by ambiguity of evidence, ambivalence of judgment, and atrophy of institutional reforms designed to avert failures. Many sources of error are unresolvable paradoxes and dilemmas rather than curable pathologies. Major failures in attack warning, operational evaluation, and intelligence for strategic planning are due primarily to leaders’ psychological attributes rather than to analysts’ failures to detect relevant data. Since analysis and decision are interactive rather than sequential processes, and authorities often hear but dismiss correct estimates, intelligence failure is inseparable from policy failure. Solutions most often proposed—worst-case analysis, multiple advocacy, devil's advocacy, organizational consolidation, sanctions and incentives for analysts, and cognitive rehabilitation—are either impractical because of constraints on the leaders’ time, or they are mixed blessings because they create new problems in the course of solving old ones.

The possibility and widespread practice of exit, on the part of dissatisfied citizens, has important, though highly diverse, bearings on the formation, solidity, and “quality” of the state. An association exists between the wide availability of exit and the condition of statelessness in a number of aboriginal societies as well as in Rousseau's state of nature. In the 18th century, the exit option—which became available to the wealthy as movable forms of property increased in importance—was hailed by such observers as Montesquieu and Adam Smith as a restraint on arbitrary rule or taxation. Today, on the other hand, such exit (capital flight) tends to render the introduction of needed reforms more difficult. Emigration-exit was benign in its effect on the sending countries in the 19th century and may have been helpful to the process of democratization in Europe. Lately, however, exit has been considered a threat to the existence of the state and has led to strong, though very different, defensive reactions in Ireland and East Germany. The small modern state can fend off excessive exit by providing a variety of public goods to its citizens; one of these public goods is “understood complexity.”

A recent report commissioned by the OECD, Towards Full Employment and Price Stability, represents an attempt by mainstream economists to account for world capitalism's economic difficulties during the 1970's, and to prescribe solutions. Although the report identifies the key sources of inflation and recession as political and social, it carefully analyzes only economic processes. Yet it makes a political argument: that democratic states must discipline their citizens more effectively in order to conform to the requirements of capitalism. This conclusion rests on unexamined normative assumptions, and fails to consider questions of political feasibility. The report is deficient both as explanatory theory (due to its political and sociological naivete) and as policy science (due to its pervasive ideological bias). Its weaknesses indicate the need for better political and sociological analysis to complement economic theories of inflation and recession.

Recent micro-level studies of rural communities in the developing areas address themselves to three basic issues: (1) What are the major external forces that determine the welfare of persons residing in rural areas? (2) How do peasants respond to these forces? (3) What ethical evaluations are to be made of the outcome of the encounter between peasant communities and the forces intruding upon them from their environment? By addressing these questions, and by formulating and utilizing explicit models of peasant behavior, these studies provide a coherent approach to the study of the developing areas.

Despite a vast literature on nationalism, theoretical investigations on the subject are rare. Historians generally are not interested in theory, although they use typologies. The most thoroughgoing typology has been produced by the sociologist Anthony D. Smith, who has constructed a matrix with 55 locations that allows categorization of both ancient and modern types of nationalism. Smith divides nationalist ideology into a core doctrine and its accretions, but he may underestimate the importance of language. Kedourie has produced a theory of the intellectual development of nationalism, but only Gellner has a theory of modernity in which nationalism plays a key role. Interest in ethnicity has given a new direction to studies of nationalism by stressing the function of group allegiance in achieving political ends. Finally, despite the sharpness of Smith's definitional insights, his theory itself is too narrow to establish the link he seeks between modernization and nationalism.