Until recently, modern macroeconomic models have remained solidly grounded on assumptions of rational expectations, efficient markets and representative agents, with policy prescriptions focused on the power of markets, and complex and esoteric financial intermediation instruments justified as solutions to problems of asymmetric information and risk. In modern microeconomics, behavioural economic analysis has flourished, focusing on individual responses and interactions. By contrast, in macroeconomics, humans are assumed to behave as if they are mathematical machines, making decisions in a mechanical, objective way. From this perspective, it is difficult to properly capture the instabilities that characterise modern macroeconomies and financial systems. While some progress has been made in recognising the bounds to rationality, the complexity of the macroeconomy can be captured fully only by embedding psychological and sociological forces more fully into macroeconomic models. Keynes was a pioneer in analysing the impacts of socio-psychological influences on macroeconomic phenomena. This article explores some of Keynes’ fundamental ideas about socio-psychological macroeconomic influences, including insights from A Treatise on Probability (1921) onwards, and links these insights both with modern behavioural economic theory and current macroeconomic policy debates.

Australia developed a strong and successful automotive manufacturing industry after the Second World War, based on active industrial policy. But in 2017, mass vehicle assembly in the country will cease altogether, as the last global automakers operating in the country close their final plants, with negative spillover effects along the automotive manufacturing supply chain. After 2017, Australia will be the only major industrial country with no vehicle assembly whatsoever. This article analyses the shifts in industrial policy that explain both the initial postwar expansion, and the subsequent decline and closures. Policy-makers incorrectly assumed that the critical goal of stimulating automotive exports could be achieved through trade liberalisation, but dismantling tariffs only stimulated vehicle imports without increasing overseas demand for Australian cars. Production declined in tandem with tariffs, and there was no clear industry policy strategy for facilitating the redirection of released resources to more productive manufacturing activity, when that outcome, predicted in neoliberal comparative advantage theory, failed to materialise. Financial market deregulation, resulting in financialisation of the economy, coupled with high commodity prices, resulted in an overvalued and volatile currency, attracting foreign investors to resources and asset speculation while appearing to increase manufacturing production costs. A clear contrast is drawn between Australia’s policy passivity in recent decades, and the continued policy activism visible in other jurisdictions of all political orientations – including countries which, particularly after the global financial crisis, faced economic and industrial challenges at least as daunting as Australia’s. In the 1970s, Australia had been among the world’s top 10 auto manufacturers; after 2017, it will be one of only two G20 countries completely lacking mass automotive manufacturing capacity. The industry’s disappearance from Australia is shown to have resulted from some unique policy choices: understanding them may help avert future similar policy errors.

The experience of industry policy in the wider Asian region contrasts significantly with many of the neoliberal policy prescriptions prevalent in Australia today. Using the automotive industry as a comparative case study, this article compares industry policy in three demographic and geographic giants of the region: China, India and Indonesia. China’s dominant position has benefited from a highly ‘interventionist’ industry policy which places strict conditions on foreign carmakers in joint ventures. This policy has also influenced the emergence of a thriving domestic industry, with state-owned enterprises leading the way. While India has also emerged as a major auto producer, its industry policy has moved away from the joint venture model since the 1990s, with fully foreign-owned operations now playing a much bigger role. In contrast, Indonesia retains a version of the joint venture model while local industry is dominated by Japanese capital. The record of industry policy in these countries challenges the idea that more ‘liberal’ economic systems lead to stronger domestic industries or firms.

This article charts and analyses the change path and various transformations of Malaysia’s state-owned enterprise, the Federal Land Development Agency, from its establishment in the 1960s to the present. The analysis supports arguments that the model of the developmental state, based on planned public/private cooperation, provides an alternative policy prescription to that of sole reliance on the self-regulating market. The Federal Land Development Agency is shown not only to have survived but also to have thrived as an economic development arm of the Malaysian state, successfully adapting to the changing environment in which it operates. To delineate the changes, a framework of punctuated equilibrium is utilised as it best captures the instances of rapid discontinuous change and the periods of incremental change and relative stability.

This article deals with the rehabilitation of economies in post-conflict states, paying particular attention to the role played by the state in this process. Using the example of Cambodia and its policies on rice production and export, the article shows the prominent role that may be played by the state in prioritised areas of economic development where there has been market failure. In the Cambodian case, the government targeted rice production and export as these had great potential for promoting the major aims of national development policy – economic growth and poverty alleviation. Using a whole-of-government approach and a combination of direct involvement and the creation of an enabling environment, the government appears to have contributed to vastly increased rice production and export.

This article investigates the time allocation choices of US workers between farm work and other job alternatives. Results indicate that green card farm workers tend to allocate fewer workweeks to farm employment than citizens and undocumented workers, in favour of better opportunities in the non-farm sector. There is evidence of an assimilation effect, whereby undocumented workers also tend to re-allocate their time from farm to non-farm employment as their residence tenure increases, even though they experience constrained mobility and visibility during periods of strict immigration control. In the context of employers’ violations of the existing labour laws that currently protect even the rights of undocumented workers, such turnover decisions seem justified. The findings raise concerns about whether any governmental effort to legalise the immigration status of such workers would reduce farm job turnover rates and increase farm employment retention, so long as labour standards are not enforced. Moreover, external economic shocks could more easily induce citizen and green card farm workers to abandon farm employment, whereas undocumented workers tend to remain in their farm jobs during such difficult times.

This article uses empirical evidence, based on labour market indicators, to analyse the factors influencing the incidence of child labour in Pakistan, from both supply and demand sides. The level of demand for child labour is shown to be linked mainly to adult wage levels, the adult unemployment rate in an area, and the size of the informal and agriculture sectors. The supply of child labour is seen to be positively linked to the proportion of adult unemployment in the household. Unlike previous studies, the article analyses both demand and supply side factors in a context of poverty and takes account of the co-existence of formal and informal labour markets. Furthermore, to generalise the issue for a longer span of time (which previous studies fail to do), it adopts the methodology of a pseudo-panel approach based on that proposed by Deaton. This approach makes it possible to pinpoint more accurately the factors, and their interaction, that need to be considered in any effective policy approach to the issue of child labour. To prevent unintended consequences, a multi-faceted development approach is required.

The aim of this study is to examine whether the prevalent and fairly long unemployment spell of young Macedonians, Serbians and Montenegrins early in their career has negative effects on their subsequent labour-market performance: the so-called employment scarring. We first model unemployment spell as a function of individual and household characteristics and work attitudes and preferences using a discrete-time duration method. Then, we estimate the survival probabilities to examine the potential existence of employment scarring. The results provide some evidence for the potential presence of employment scarring in the three countries. The scars are largest in Serbia for all durations of the unemployment spell followed by Macedonia; they are weakest in Montenegro.

This review article discusses Leonard’s (2016) study of the ideas of an elite group of Progressive economists who flourished in the United States of America between 1885 and the late 1920s. Advising governments through think tanks and regulatory commissions, they advocated labour market policies that combined a racialized approach to immigration, eugenics, Taylorist labour market efficiency and a living wage. Their interest in women’s employment conditions was based on a Darwinian concern to protect mothers of the ‘white’ race. Parallels are drawn with Australia, where, from the turn of the 20th century, industrial tribunals established a male minimum wage designed to support the maternal role, based on similar racial preoccupations and a view that women’s ‘inefficiency’ as workers would protect men from low-wage competitors. United States Progressives, in rejecting laissez-faire economics, espoused instead a role for the state based on a holistic Darwinian sociology of racial contest: an economics of hate. It was not till the 1930s that Keynesianism emerged as an alternative macroeconomic project.